Long Range Discussion: Spring 2021

[Crockett]

Spring is my least favorite season. I love a warm spring day, but on the whole the season feels like two months of waiting for it to get warm only to have the cold air intrude every time you're ready to trade flannel for short sleeves. That and mud. Lots and lots of mud.

[StormNine]

I appreciate all 4 seasons although my least favorite of the 4 is Summer but it can be enjoyable as long as it doesn't 95 degrees/dewpoints of 75+ for 4-5 months straight. 

Fall, Winter, and Spring are fairly equal to me assuming that Summer doesn't run into the former.   

With that being said I would not want to live in a place where you didn't get 4 seasons. If we are being honest it is our hot summers and make us long for Fall and Winter.  If it was just 60-70 degrees every day in the Summer then October-November wouldn't be as special. 

[wfrogge]

Its fantasy range but.... we need to watch this timeframe as several model runs have hinted at potential. 65 dews at the TN boarder with this system would give us some severe in the area

[Bruce]

Its fantasy range but.... we need to watch this timeframe as several model runs have hinted at potential. 65 dews at the TN boarder with this system would give us some severe in the area

yeah noticed on euro today, going up against a strong southeast ridge to boot. interesting to catch  the next frame , this is the period the GFS ensembles been hinting at for while

[schneitzeit]

Spring, fall, winter then summer.  Fav to least fav for me. Summer would be higher up because I love the very long days, but the stagnant heat and humidity disqualifies it. Winter might be higher up, too, if winters had more winter around here.

Agree with everything you wrote. I love spring- in fact, it's my favorite season because I love watching everything bloom, and unlike snow in the winter, you're guaranteed to watch everything come to life in the spring. I like fall and winter about the same, but would probably like them more if they were not as warm as they have been in recent years, as you said. My least favorite season is summer. I like the summertime until July, but after that it starts getting plain nasty down here, and it just won't quit until October or November. August and September are the nastiest months down here. Could also make a case for February being a nasty month when it's 60 degrees and rainy the whole time, as in 2018, 2019 and 2020. That's why I have no clue why so many of you guys want warm winters if it's not going to snow enough for you. It's plenty warm enough here for 8 months out of the year; I don't want to add February to the mild column.

[dwagner88]

I'm very grateful we didn't have a 60 degree February with flooding rains the whole month.

The only significant weather warning that I got out of this entire

[StormNine]

What are our thoughts on spring flooding? 

When we talk about an active spring severe weather-wise than we typically also deal with significant flooding/river flooding

1999
2003
2008
2010
2011

These years all come to mind and with the battleground zone likely to set up near our area for at least March into most of April the setup for not only severe weather but heavy rain is likely.

I would say for major river flooding we don't quite have the sustained snowcover in places like St. Louis and points north that we did in years like 2008 and 2011 so that will help somewhat.   

[schneitzeit]

The only significant weather warning that I got out of this entire

[Thundersnow]

I think the general rule of thumb that long range models tend to be too aggressive on a pattern change holds true in a flip to spring just as they do sniffing out a wintry pattern. The

[JayCee]

I think the general rule of thumb that long range models tend to be too aggressive on a pattern change holds true in a flip to spring just as they do sniffing out a wintry pattern. The

[Thundersnow]

Exactly... considering what Texas just went through, that airmass is bound to have brought SSTs down significantly.

[StormNine]

The western Gulf has been significantly cooled off by the Arctic outbreak that hit the central U.S. the last two weeks.   While the eastern Gulf is much warmer, I would think it will have an impact on March severe potential, since the western Gulf is now below normal temperature wise.  April and May's severe season could well be a worrisome time for the Southern Plains into the Mid-South.

In the Short-Term probably but if you get a strong Sub-990mb then it can get moisture from the Caribbean Ocean.  After the Ice Storm of 2009 we had a severe weather event a few weeks later where you had a strong low pressure and people boating on the Gulf could actually feel the waves and the warmth from the Caribbean being pulled into the system. 

With that being said we still have a loaded Canada and we may be heading into Phase 8.  Even if that doesn't give us winter weather then repeated cold shots will likely delay severe weather season, but when it gets here then watch out.

We have broad-based troughs, a strong ridge that can pump that Caribbean air, a fading La-Nina, etc. all the things we need for what will probably be an intense but perhaps short-lived severe weather season.  Not quite as long as 2008 or 2011, but it could be as intense as those years.  2006 and 2012 may be similar analogs.   

[StormNine]

Don't expect this Summer to be very fun at all because our Nina friend picks up strength again in addition to persistent ridging signals around the Desert Southwest and the Bermuda Ridge equal a toasty summer.

Probably will also feature another active hurricane season although with the stronger ridges we may be pushing a lot more storms out to sea or down into Mexico.

All in all from this last round of wintry mayhem, to the up and down and active severe weather of spring, to the likely blazing hot summer expected we will be a very busy weather community. 

[schneitzeit]

It's time for another 2007, 2012 or 2016-style summer, I guess

[Navywxman]

Unfortunately, even in the near-term going into meteorological spring, the signs are there that flooding may become a widespread issue for much of the region due to completely saturated soils.

There is relatively strong agreement that 3-5in of rainfall is likely over the next 2 weeks.