Long Range Discussion: Spring 2021

[Thundersnow]

I do wonder what the SSTs in the Gulf are at this time. That can play a role.

[StormNine]

I do wonder what the SSTs in the Gulf are at this time. That can play a role.

With a strong enough system and ridging in the right area think the Bahamas that helps pump in the Caribbean sea air, you can overcome lower SSTs in the Gulf.   

1977 was actually a decent severe weather year despite having snow down into Florida and the coldest winter on record.  1968 and 2011 also followed solidly colder than normal winters and both were above average.   

Likewise, we have had warm winters that featured very warm sst that we thought would just explode and some of them either never did, or if they did they were essentially over after 1 or 2 events in March/First Half of April.   

[Bruce]

simply look at the gfs ensembles n now look at both  major models of opps, the se ridge is going to prime postition for action in midsouth and plenty moisture streaming north with systems to work with. i like were we are heading

[Thundersnow]

Matt Grantham, a met over at TW said this today:

As winter relaxes, we'll probably see a gradual ramp up over the next several weeks, peaking later into March and April. It's almost that time, and the potential is very high end.

That sounds reasonable to me and is really all I was getting at. Doesn

[gcbama]

Matt Grantham, a met over at TW said this today:

That sounds reasonable to me and is really all I was getting at. Doesn

[Bruce]

I think it will be at least until mid march before first real threat

think thats very plausible statement... although gfs ensembles has a system first week march thats got my interest

[wfrogge]

I have my money the first real threat for the Mid-South being around March 1st.  If this pattern holds with the sun a little higher in the sky things will get interesting in the southeast.

[gcbama]

I have my money the first real threat for the Mid-South being around March 1st.  If this pattern holds with the sun a little higher in the sky things will get interesting in the southeast.

I do agree i think some threats will arise soon, but IMO more like around the I-20 region from B-ham southward into the deep south, i think it may be a minute before the deeper moisture gets up this way

[Bruce]

I do agree i think some threats will arise soon, but IMO more like around the I-20 region from B-ham southward into the deep south, i think it may be a minute before the deeper moisture gets up this way

its all going depend on the ole SE RIDGE, how strong it gets and position its in... if the gfs ensembles on to something, the midsouth season begins first week march

[snowdog]

After living through a tornado last year and being without power for almost a week, I can't stress enough for folks to think through your preparations. Let those in Texas currently struggling be your wake up call. When thing's go south, the only one in charge of keeping you and your family safe and living...is YOU...and if YOU and YOUR family are good, go check in on neighbors.

[Nashville_Wx]

Spring brings hunting Morels, may favorite part. I would love some nice thunderstorm and rain to really bring them out. Anyone else hunt for Morels?

[JayCee]

Robins and bluebirds have appeared here and have been active in the trees and yard.  Unlike the last 4 years, I dont see any of spring bulbs poking up through the ground yet. A testament to a much cooler February than the past several, despite missing the worst of the Arctic air.

The Sun has really changed its position in the sky since December.  Always good to see the seasonal shift of the Sun whether in late winter or late summer.

[schneitzeit]

Robins and bluebirds have appeared here and have been active in the trees and yard.  Unlike the last 4 years, I dont see any of spring bulbs poking up through the ground yet. A testament to a much cooler February than the past several, despite missing the worst of the Arctic air.

The Sun has really changed its position in the sky since December.  Always good to see the seasonal shift of the Sun whether in late winter or late summer.

I'm very grateful we didn't have a 60 degree February with flooding rains the whole month.

[Nash_LSU]

Robins and bluebirds have appeared here and have been active in the trees and yard.  Unlike the last 4 years, I dont see any of spring bulbs poking up through the ground yet. A testament to a much cooler February than the past several, despite missing the worst of the Arctic air.

The Sun has really changed its position in the sky since December.  Always good to see the seasonal shift of the Sun whether in late winter or late summer.

Yeah, I had trees blooming on Feb 2nd last year. I think we'll see the plant and animal action pick up in the next couple of weeks as the days get longer. It's my favorite time of year.

[JayCee]

Yeah, I had trees blooming on Feb 2nd last year. I think we'll see the plant and animal action pick up in the next couple of weeks as the days get longer. It's my favorite time of year.

Spring, fall, winter then summer.  Fav to least fav for me. Summer would be higher up because I love the very long days, but the stagnant heat and humidity disqualifies it. Winter might be higher up, too, if winters had more winter around here.