Long Range Discussion: Spring 2021

[snowdog]

I'll just say that the background state this year is more favorable for significant severe weather outbreaks east of the Mississippi River than any since 2011 and leave it at that. Whether the synoptic pattern takes advantage of that remains to be seen, but I don't have a great feeling about what is around the corner in March and April.

Sounds like a good year to finally film that documentary of you and Bruce on a chase. 

[Dyersburg Weather]

Sounds like a good year to finally film that documentary of you and Bruce on a chase. 

I

[Eric]

this needs be taken serious.  Please

Cmon Bruce....2013.

[JayCee]

This thread going get buisy soon. Not talking bout all the pretty flowers blooming and birds singing either kind of way ...

Ready for spring myself. Mainly the things you mentioned here, as well as greener trees and extended hours of daylight.

[Nashville_Wx]

Yay my first banter in the Spring thread..... "clears throat" .... Spring is already over folks, I do not see any severe weather based on modeling that isnt even out yet. Most likely be dry and no severe. This is based off of nothing as I have no idea why I am even typing this. I do like Morels, and a wet spring will bring just that. My honey hole , Oh baby Oh baby

[Bruce]

Yay my first banter in the Spring thread..... "clears throat" .... Spring is already over folks, I do not see any severe weather based on modeling that isnt even out yet. Most likely be dry and no severe. This is based off of nothing as I have no idea why I am even typing this. I do like Morels, and a wet spring will bring just that. My honey hole , Oh baby Oh baby

lol............ GFS already spitting out fantasy super dynamic systems deep troughs   fantasy of course, but we are fixing change gears

[snowdog]

Yay my first banter in the Spring thread..... "clears throat" .... Spring is already over folks, I do not see any severe weather based on modeling that isnt even out yet. Most likely be dry and no severe. This is based off of nothing as I have no idea why I am even typing this. I do like Morels, and a wet spring will bring just that. My honey hole , Oh baby Oh baby

seem same in winter thread which poster cant remember

[Nashville_Wx]

lol............ GFS already spitting out fantasy super dynamic systems deep troughs   fantasy of course, but we are fixing change gears

Dude you crack me up man. Bruce I challenge you to repeat "fantasy super dynamic systems deep troughs" 3 times as fast as you can!!! **** everyone get it on this one. Cheers

[cgauxknox]

I give it two weeks before TWC starts naming summer storms and talking about the power of the Gulflocentric Cyclonic Rotation that makes thunderstorms more powerful. Will we see Summer Storm Adolphus in March or have to wait until the official start of the season in April? 

[wfrogge]

Fantasyland system on the EURO on the 26th needs to be watched. Mid 60s dews into West TN with an 82kt 500mb jet out of the southwest would be trouble if it verified.

[Bruce]

Fantasyland system on the EURO on the 26th needs to be watched. Mid 60s dews into West TN with an 82kt 500mb jet out of the southwest would be trouble if it verified.

beat me to that one lol haven

[wfrogge]

beat me to that one lol haven

[Thundersnow]

My guess is it may take a while to recover from the cold regime at this latitude for severe weather to threaten TN in a significant way... well into March, but more likely April. Last year, we were hit in very early March, but I doubt that's the case this year. Severe weather will probably hit in the deeper south and Gulf Coast areas well before it's a major possibility for us. Hard to believe we're past the middle of February and 10 days until the start of meteorological spring.

With that said- I'm going to go on record and say I think March will be a mixed bag. I doubt we're done with winter weather, to be honest, but I think some warm patterns and other storm chances with enter the picture.

[mamMATTus]

My guess is it may take a while to recover from the cold regime at this latitude for severe weather to threaten TN in a significant way... well into March, but more likely April. Last year, we were hit in very early March, but I doubt that's the case this year. Severe weather will probably hit in the deeper south and Gulf Coast areas well before it's a major possibility for us. Hard to believe we're past the middle of February and 10 days until the start of meteorological spring.

You took the words right out of my mouth. I'm not feeling an early start to severe season. I'm expecting a backloaded spring with 3-4 big threats.

[Bruce]

You took the words right out of my mouth. I'm not feeling an early start to severe season. I'm expecting a backloaded spring with 3-4 big threats.

dont work like that unfortunately. Example January 1999 major sleet storm first week that month temps down single digits nearly week. 3 weeks later by 17 th that month . Two tornado outbreaks big time. This air mass will recover quickly  with no problem