Long Range Discussion: Spring 2021

[Eric]

I can't hang on to the cliff for very long. Need more info ASAP!!

Andy is the harbinger of doom.  And sadly, we're all here for it.

[Matthew]

Ok I like winter.  It has no tornadoes!

[schneitzeit]

Ok I like winter.  It has no tornadoes!

False

[jwr2914]

Ok I like winter.  It has no tornadoes!

Feb. 5th 2008!

[Bruce]

January 17 th 1999. January 22! 1999

[Matthew]

Thanks for reminding me. 

[andyhb]

I'll just say that the background state this year is more favorable for significant severe weather outbreaks east of the Mississippi River than any since 2011 and leave it at that. Whether the synoptic pattern takes advantage of that remains to be seen, but I don't have a great feeling about what is around the corner in March and April.

[Eric]

January 30, 2913.

[Bruce]

January 30, 2913.

this needs be taken serious.  Please

[DocB]

this needs be taken serious.  Please

Must be contagious. James Spann's morning video he says its "Friday" Feb 18.

[schneitzeit]

Must be contagious. James Spann's morning video he says its "Friday" Feb 18.

The snow's got everyone high.

[DocB]

The snow's got everyone high.

I grew up in the 70'/80's - that was a different kind of 'snow'

[Thundersnow]

Must be contagious. James Spann's morning video he says its "Friday" Feb 18.

It seems like Friday. This has been the longest week ever, but somehow it

[schneitzeit]

I'll just say that the background state this year is more favorable for significant severe weather outbreaks east of the Mississippi River than any since 2011 and leave it at that. Whether the synoptic pattern takes advantage of that remains to be seen, but I don't have a great feeling about what is around the corner in March and April.

We were coming out of a La Nina back in 2011, IIRC, though the Nina from the 10-11 winter was much stronger than this year's. Nina winters are infamous for leading into destructive spring outbreaks.

What other factors are setting us up? Teach me what I don't know. We've got a stubborn SER supplying the warm air to our region (thanks to the MJO doing laps in phases 5, 6 and 7), Arctic cold in the Southern Plains, and certainly no lack of moisture. To an amateur like me, that's the extent of my knowledge.

[Bruce]

This thread going get buisy soon. Not talking bout all the pretty flowers blooming and birds singing either kind of way ...