Long Range Discussion: Spring 2021

[Bruce]

good info today anyone interested over talk weather... appears now leading analog for this up coming spring is now 1974, what close second 2011

[Eric]

good info today anyone interested over talk weather... appears now leading analog for this up coming spring is now 1974, what close second 2011

[cgauxknox]

1974 is definitely not what we need to see again.
https://www.wbir.com/article/news/local/40-years-ago-1974-tornado-super-outbreak-hits-east-tn/51-95228775

[Eric]

1974 is definitely not what we need to see again.
https://www.wbir.com/article/news/local/40-years-ago-1974-tornado-super-outbreak-hits-east-tn/51-95228775

'74 was my parents generation.  '11 was the '74 of my generation.  Is '21 going to be the '11 of my kids generation?  I hope not.

[schneitzeit]

Hope this is a huge bust.

[Thundersnow]

So, indeed, while the large scale pattern I guess does fit some bad years, the details of any given system on any given day will make or break what actually happens.

[Dyersburg Weather]

While I do agree things look ominous for the spring we have to remember January looked banging for winter a few weeks ago.

[StormNine]

- Low amplitude troughs (Check)

- Favorable transition with a declining La-Nina (Check)

- Bathwater Carriabean Ocean (remember it isn't just the Gulf) (Check)

The pieces are most certainly there but one thing that could throw a wrench into this is the tendency for that Central US Ridging, which may serve as a block similar to what happened after mid-April in 2012 and 2006 with a gangbusters start that quickly ends.  In that case, derecho and damaging wind threats would be the main concern after mid-April.     

[Bruce]

While I do agree things look ominous for the spring we have to remember January looked banging for winter a few weeks ago.

actually this winter was called mild from get go  . Potentially best chance s were early months . If we were going get any winter storms

[schneitzeit]

Reading about the TORRO scale just for fun.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TORRO_scale

[schneitzeit]

Click the link if you'd like to register for a SKYWARN spotter class!

https://www.weather.gov/ohx/skywarn

From the NWS-OHX branch website:

Have you always wanted to become a NWS SKYWARN Storm Spotter but don't have time to attend one of our in-person classes?  Are you looking for something for your community group or classroom to get involved in?  Are you a Tennessee resident?  NWS Nashville would like to invite you to become a SKYWARN Storm Spotter! 

These online classes will allow individuals to complete the course in the comfort of their own home or office using the extremely user-friendly computer program, Go-To Meeting.  The only requirement will be speakers on your computer to listen and if you want to ask questions, you will need to have a VOIP microphone. Additionally, they can be viewed on Mac, PC, iPad, iPhone and Android.

To sign up for an online class, simply click on the link beside the date/time you want to attend, fill out the form and we will forward you a link to register on the Go-To Meeting website.  Register, download the FREE software, and BAM! You can attend the 1.5 - 2.0 hour online class.

[andyhb]

I'll just be cryptic in here and say something along the lines of:

"Houston, we have a problem."

[dwagner88]

I'll just be cryptic in here and say something along the lines of:

"Houston, we have a problem."

Please no. Not again.

[mamMATTus]

I'll just be cryptic in here and say something along the lines of:

"Houston, we have a problem."

I can't hang on to the cliff for very long. Need more info ASAP!!

[Bruce]

I can't hang on to the cliff for very long. Need more info ASAP!!

get ready for perhaps a bumpy ride this spring ...