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Author Topic: Long Range Discussion: Spring 2021  (Read 4505 times)

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Offline Bruce

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Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #15 on: January 26, 2021, 02:30:27 PM »
good info today anyone interested over talk weather... appears now leading analog for this up coming spring is now 1974, what close second 2011 ::coffee::
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Eric

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Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #16 on: January 26, 2021, 02:42:12 PM »
good info today anyone interested over talk weather... appears now leading analog for this up coming spring is now 1974, what close second 2011 ::coffee::

#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #17 on: January 26, 2021, 02:47:25 PM »

Offline Eric

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Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #18 on: January 26, 2021, 02:57:17 PM »
1974 is definitely not what we need to see again.
https://www.wbir.com/article/news/local/40-years-ago-1974-tornado-super-outbreak-hits-east-tn/51-95228775

'74 was my parents generation.  '11 was the '74 of my generation.  Is '21 going to be the '11 of my kids generation?  I hope not.
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Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #19 on: January 26, 2021, 03:20:51 PM »
Hope this is a huge bust.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #20 on: January 26, 2021, 04:46:52 PM »
So, indeed, while the large scale pattern I guess does fit some bad years, the details of any given system on any given day will make or break what actually happens.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #21 on: January 26, 2021, 06:10:26 PM »
While I do agree things look ominous for the spring we have to remember January looked banging for winter a few weeks ago.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #22 on: January 26, 2021, 07:18:42 PM »
- Low amplitude troughs (Check)

- Favorable transition with a declining La-Nina (Check)

- Bathwater Carriabean Ocean (remember it isn't just the Gulf) (Check)

The pieces are most certainly there but one thing that could throw a wrench into this is the tendency for that Central US Ridging, which may serve as a block similar to what happened after mid-April in 2012 and 2006 with a gangbusters start that quickly ends.  In that case, derecho and damaging wind threats would be the main concern after mid-April.     

Offline Bruce

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Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #23 on: January 26, 2021, 07:46:53 PM »
While I do agree things look ominous for the spring we have to remember January looked banging for winter a few weeks ago.
actually this winter was called mild from get go  . Potentially best chance s were early months . If we were going get any winter storms
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #24 on: February 04, 2021, 02:50:31 PM »
Reading about the TORRO scale just for fun.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TORRO_scale
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #25 on: February 09, 2021, 01:12:45 PM »
Click the link if you'd like to register for a SKYWARN spotter class!

https://www.weather.gov/ohx/skywarn

From the NWS-OHX branch website:
Quote
Have you always wanted to become a NWS SKYWARN Storm Spotter but don't have time to attend one of our in-person classes?  Are you looking for something for your community group or classroom to get involved in?  Are you a Tennessee resident?  NWS Nashville would like to invite you to become a SKYWARN Storm Spotter! 

These online classes will allow individuals to complete the course in the comfort of their own home or office using the extremely user-friendly computer program, Go-To Meeting.  The only requirement will be speakers on your computer to listen and if you want to ask questions, you will need to have a VOIP microphone. Additionally, they can be viewed on Mac, PC, iPad, iPhone and Android.

To sign up for an online class, simply click on the link beside the date/time you want to attend, fill out the form and we will forward you a link to register on the Go-To Meeting website.  Register, download the FREE software, and BAM! You can attend the 1.5 - 2.0 hour online class.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline andyhb

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Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #26 on: February 17, 2021, 07:15:53 PM »
I'll just be cryptic in here and say something along the lines of:

"Houston, we have a problem."
Dynamic upper level troughs with adequate warm sector instability

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #27 on: February 17, 2021, 07:30:16 PM »
I'll just be cryptic in here and say something along the lines of:

"Houston, we have a problem."
Please no. Not again.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #28 on: February 17, 2021, 08:16:05 PM »
I'll just be cryptic in here and say something along the lines of:

"Houston, we have a problem."

I can't hang on to the cliff for very long. Need more info ASAP!!

Offline Bruce

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Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #29 on: February 17, 2021, 08:18:57 PM »
I can't hang on to the cliff for very long. Need more info ASAP!!
get ready for perhaps a bumpy ride this spring ...
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

 

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