*

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length


Author Topic: Long Range Discussion: Spring 2021  (Read 5269 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Bruce

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,248
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2961
Long Range Discussion: Spring 2021
« on: January 25, 2021, 09:05:55 AM »
Know it
« Last Edit: February 20, 2021, 08:55:42 PM by Thundersnow »
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Bruce

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,248
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2961
Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2021, 09:16:37 AM »
Top analogs being used I see for this spring . Years 1974... 1976 ... 2011. Common.  February has 2008 written mostly as top analog  for that month alone .
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline mamMATTus

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,504
  • Location: Chattanooga
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 170
Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #2 on: January 25, 2021, 10:07:08 AM »

Offline schneitzeit

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,769
  • Location: SW Williamson County
  • Tornado Alley moved SE.
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2367
Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #3 on: January 25, 2021, 10:16:44 AM »
Links please.

seen it over on american wx... word on street is major severe wx potential, every body talkin bout big outbreak possibly largest since 11..  trying get paster to work but stupid i phone wont copy link
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline Bruce

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,248
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2961
Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #4 on: January 25, 2021, 10:18:38 AM »
seen it over on american wx... word on street is major severe wx potential, every body talkin bout big outbreak possibly largest since 11..  trying get paster to work but stupid i phone wont copy link
talk weather good severe weather forum for severe wx lovers
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Bruce

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,248
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2961
Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #5 on: January 25, 2021, 10:33:07 AM »
seen it over on american wx... word on street is major severe wx potential, every body talkin bout big outbreak possibly largest since 11..  trying get paster to work but stupid i phone wont copy link
dont you hate it  when that happens man...
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline JHart

  • TNWX Supporter
  • Supercell
  • ******
  • Posts: 609
  • Location: Lascassas (NE Rutherford County)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 207
Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #6 on: January 25, 2021, 10:53:47 AM »
Top analogs being used I see for this spring . Years 1974... 1976 ... 2011. Common.  February has 2008 written mostly as top analog  for that month alone .
Well, just remember that in early December some experts were listing 1985 and 1977 as the top analogs for this winter.   ::whistling::
Hire the left-handed --- its fun to watch them write.

Offline Bruce

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,248
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2961
Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #7 on: January 25, 2021, 10:56:29 AM »
Well, just remember that in early December some experts were listing 1985 and 1977 as the top analogs for this winter.   ::whistling::
didnt fall for that . To much climate change since then .
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Matthew

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,446
  • Location: Smryna, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1046
Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2021, 11:21:46 AM »
Links please.
I will try and grab some links but over on American Wx Fred Gossage posted about 2011 being an analog.  I posted it a couple weeks ago in the long range discussion.  Unfortunately he is right many are saying it

Offline Matthew

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,446
  • Location: Smryna, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1046
Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2021, 11:26:40 AM »
talk weather good severe weather forum for severe wx lovers
Actually American Wx is better.  Fred posts on there now. Also one of our own who knows his wx and just joined us. Mr. Jeff!  Southern Wx I
« Last Edit: January 26, 2021, 04:12:12 PM by Matthew »

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,773
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1868
Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #10 on: January 25, 2021, 11:59:05 AM »
No fan of tornadoes, but I do love the run-of-the-mill storm, and wouldn't mind one every sultry summer afternoon.  The towering clouds in the sky and the distant rumble of thunder followed by a stiff, cooling wind with heavy rain makes for good front porch entertainment.  It beats the cold, dreary rain of winter.  However, as I age, I've become much less apt to "enjoy" hearing that a tornado watch has been issued for my area.  With that in mind, I hope this spring follows the trend of most springs since 2011--more busts than booms. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Bruce

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,248
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2961
Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #11 on: January 25, 2021, 12:03:36 PM »
No fan of tornadoes, but I do love the run-of-the-mill storm, and wouldn't mind one every sultry summer afternoon.  The towering clouds in the sky and the distant rumble of thunder followed by a stiff, cooling wind with heavy rain makes for good front porch entertainment.  It beats the cold, dreary rain of winter.  However, as I age, I've become much less apt to "enjoy" hearing that a tornado watch has been issued for my area.  With that in mind, I hope this spring follows the trend of most springs since 2011--more busts than booms.
looking back last ten years most the springs were predicted to be quite and less active actually . We been in a pretty quite and tranquil spring pattern most years since 2011. Appears the signs are there for it finally break. And with gang busters too. We shall see
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Nash_LSU

  • Thunderstorm
  • ***
  • Posts: 168
  • Location: Nashville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #12 on: January 25, 2021, 01:56:44 PM »
No fan of tornadoes, but I do love the run-of-the-mill storm, and wouldn't mind one every sultry summer afternoon.  The towering clouds in the sky and the distant rumble of thunder followed by a stiff, cooling wind with heavy rain makes for good front porch entertainment. 

Go live along the Gulf Coast. Minus the cooling wind, they get those storms daily. When I lived in Baton Rouge and New Orleans, you'd get a big storm almost every day between April to the end of July. This storms would have lots of energy and loved throwing tons of C2G lightning and torrential downpours. They'd usually hit about 5 pm, which would give just enough time for the sun to come back out and heat things back up before sunset.

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,773
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1868
Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #13 on: January 25, 2021, 04:53:21 PM »
Go live along the Gulf Coast. Minus the cooling wind, they get those storms daily. When I lived in Baton Rouge and New Orleans, you'd get a big storm almost every day between April to the end of July. This storms would have lots of energy and loved throwing tons of C2G lightning and torrential downpours. They'd usually hit about 5 pm, which would give just enough time for the sun to come back out and heat things back up before sunset.

I think I live far enough south.  I spent a few weeks with my sister in Louisiana when she lived there.  Tennessee's brand of heat and humidity seems quite mild compared to what I experienced there.   ::blowtorch::
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Matthew

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,446
  • Location: Smryna, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1046
Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #14 on: January 25, 2021, 04:58:23 PM »
looking back last ten years most the springs were predicted to be quite and less active actually . We been in a pretty quite and tranquil spring pattern most years since 2011. Appears the signs are there for it finally break. And with gang busters too. We shall see

Here is to many more busts like the winter threat busts.

 

*

May 2021
by justinmundie
[Today at 05:58:16 PM]
Updated NWS Climate Norms for TN (1991-2020)
by Clay
[May 13, 2021, 12:20:41 PM]
Mothers Day Severe Threat
by Thundersnow
[May 11, 2021, 08:11:58 AM]
Your Ideas on Better Severe Weather Communications Methodology
by Dyersburg Weather
[May 07, 2021, 09:53:57 AM]