Jan 15-16 Snow Chance

[Thundersnow]

Let

[Nash_LSU]

Confidence is increasing in snowfall accumulations across Middle
Tennessee beginning Friday Night, continuing through the day on
Saturday   

[schneitzeit]

This will definitely be an elevation-based event. Temps will be a little too warm in the basin (Nashville-Murfreesboro-Franklin) for accumulation unless a squall passes through with heavy rates. Models do show temps right at freezing on the Highland Rim, so it's reasonable to expect minor accums. there.

[dwagner88]

The GFS has more precip below freezing for this event than for any other threat so far this winter for us. Sadly its still only 0.02" occurring with a 2M temp of 31.

[Eric]

Dang.  The 12z HRRR is stingy with the good stuff. 



12z NAM3 looks very good for light accums for most.  Can really see how the Valley gets the shaft on the 6z NAM3 loop.

FOLLOWING
SUNSET TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO COOL RAPIDLY EVENTUALLY REACHING BELOW
FREEZING BY TOMORROW MORNING. SPEAKING OF FREEZING, HOW QUICKLY
THE COLD AIR ARRIVES TO MIDDLE TN OVERNIGHT PLAYS A LARGE FACTOR
IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. CAMS CONTINUE TO BRING THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ALLOWING SOME
MOISTURE TO FLOW DOWN INTO MIDDLE TN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT 6 PM TO MIDNIGHT WILL BE THE WINDOW
WHERE WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION FROM A LIGHT RAIN, TO A MIX, AND
EVENTUALLY SNOW. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING
AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THE PREDOMINATE PRCP TYPE WILL IN FACT BE SNOW. OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ALONG THE UPPER CUMBERLAND WILL HELP THOSE TO LIKELY SEE
HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THOSE WEST. RIGHT NOW, HIGHEST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE ALONG THE UPPER CUMBERLAND WITH
1-2" POSSIBLE. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS REACHING
HIGHER AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE IN OUR NORTHERN PLATEAU
COUNTIES. FOR THIS REASON, DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES. FOR THOSE WEST
OF THE UPPER CUMBERLAND, EXPECTING TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
HALF AN INCH TO SOME LOCALIZED INCH AMOUNTS. HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER IF THE COLD
AIR WERE TO ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH IN THE EVENING.

[snowdog]

Forecast for my area, same as every other "event" this season. It'll be nice to see some snow flying but I expect very little if any to accumulate.

[schneitzeit]

Forecast for my area, same as every other "event" this season. It'll be nice to see some snow flying but I expect very little if any to accumulate.

Have to hope for one of those convective snow bands to pass through your area and lay down a nice coating. Light snow showers won't do anything with temperatures between 33-36F in the lower elevations.

[Flash]

Perhaps we can get some Kentucky Lake enhanced snow squalls?

[gcbama]

i will say there is a more of a southern component to the motion of the moisture on radar than i thought there would be?

[schneitzeit]

There was a flash freeze in my area after the rain showers moved through early this morning. Temperatures dropped down to 30F and a light coating of ice was on vegetation.

Still some patches of snow left from last week.

[gcbama]

There was a flash freeze in my area after the rain showers moved through early this morning. Temperatures dropped down to 30F and a light coating of ice was on vegetation.

Still some patches of snow left from last week.

My last snow patches JUST gave up the ghost a little bit ago, quite impressive that it held on for so long

[Eric]

i will say there is a more of a southern component to the motion of the moisture on radar than i thought there would be?

That may be the upper level low swinging more southward.  OHX mentioned it this morning.

[gcbama]

That may be the upper level low swinging more southward.  OHX mentioned it this morning.

It is really diving south a lot more than east right now, could be beneficial to us, Time to radar watch/nowcast now imo

[Eric]

OHX -

12Z model runs are coming in, and are showing pretty much the same
setup as previous runs. Did not adjust the forecast too much over
the next 36 hours. However, CAMs are showing potential for some
light rain/flurries moving through this afternoon especially for
the I-65 corridor and eastward to the Plateau. Adjusted pops
slightly to account for this. Other than that just updated near
term forecast to line up with obs trends. Rest of the forecast
remains on track.

[Curt]

HRR actually has convective snow showers this far west about midnight. Nice but I won