*

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length


Author Topic: Jan 15-16 Snow Chance  (Read 4733 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline Thundersnow

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 12,065
  • Location: Nolensville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 584
Jan 15-16 Snow Chance
« on: January 14, 2021, 09:54:39 PM »
Let
« Last Edit: January 14, 2021, 10:09:38 PM by Thundersnow »

Offline Nash_LSU

  • Thunderstorm
  • ***
  • Posts: 151
  • Location: Nashville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 23
Re: Jan 15-16 Snow Chance
« Reply #1 on: January 14, 2021, 09:58:38 PM »
Quote
Confidence is increasing in snowfall accumulations across Middle
Tennessee beginning Friday Night, continuing through the day on
Saturday   




Offline schneitzeit

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,610
  • Location: SW Williamson County
  • Tornado Alley moved SE.
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2209
Re: Jan 15-16 Snow Chance
« Reply #2 on: January 15, 2021, 08:13:50 AM »
This will definitely be an elevation-based event. Temps will be a little too warm in the basin (Nashville-Murfreesboro-Franklin) for accumulation unless a squall passes through with heavy rates. Models do show temps right at freezing on the Highland Rim, so it's reasonable to expect minor accums. there.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline dwagner88

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,654
  • Location: Chattanooga (East Brainerd) TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 161
Re: Jan 15-16 Snow Chance
« Reply #3 on: January 15, 2021, 08:14:07 AM »
The GFS has more precip below freezing for this event than for any other threat so far this winter for us. Sadly its still only 0.02" occurring with a 2M temp of 31.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25

Offline Eric

  • IF THE NAM VERIFIES
  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 15,277
  • Location: MTSU by day, Morrison by night
  • Call sign: KJ4IXE
    • My Blog...
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 972
Re: Jan 15-16 Snow Chance
« Reply #4 on: January 15, 2021, 08:15:44 AM »
Dang.  The 12z HRRR is stingy with the good stuff. 



12z NAM3 looks very good for light accums for most.  Can really see how the Valley gets the shaft on the 6z NAM3 loop.



Quote
FOLLOWING
SUNSET TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO COOL RAPIDLY EVENTUALLY REACHING BELOW
FREEZING BY TOMORROW MORNING. SPEAKING OF FREEZING, HOW QUICKLY
THE COLD AIR ARRIVES TO MIDDLE TN OVERNIGHT PLAYS A LARGE FACTOR
IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. CAMS CONTINUE TO BRING THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ALLOWING SOME
MOISTURE TO FLOW DOWN INTO MIDDLE TN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT 6 PM TO MIDNIGHT WILL BE THE WINDOW
WHERE WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION FROM A LIGHT RAIN, TO A MIX, AND
EVENTUALLY SNOW. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING
AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, LEADING ME TO
BELIEVE THE PREDOMINATE PRCP TYPE WILL IN FACT BE SNOW. OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ALONG THE UPPER CUMBERLAND WILL HELP THOSE TO LIKELY SEE
HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THOSE WEST. RIGHT NOW, HIGHEST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE ALONG THE UPPER CUMBERLAND WITH
1-2" POSSIBLE. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS REACHING
HIGHER AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE IN OUR NORTHERN PLATEAU
COUNTIES.
FOR THIS REASON, DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES. FOR THOSE WEST
OF THE UPPER CUMBERLAND, EXPECTING TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
HALF AN INCH TO SOME LOCALIZED INCH AMOUNTS. HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER IF THE COLD
AIR WERE TO ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH IN THE EVENING.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2021, 08:22:31 AM by Eric »
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

Offline snowdog

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 5,576
  • Location: Mt. Juliet, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 260
Re: Jan 15-16 Snow Chance
« Reply #5 on: January 15, 2021, 09:07:52 AM »
Forecast for my area, same as every other "event" this season. It'll be nice to see some snow flying but I expect very little if any to accumulate.

Offline schneitzeit

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,610
  • Location: SW Williamson County
  • Tornado Alley moved SE.
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2209
Re: Jan 15-16 Snow Chance
« Reply #6 on: January 15, 2021, 10:34:04 AM »
Forecast for my area, same as every other "event" this season. It'll be nice to see some snow flying but I expect very little if any to accumulate.

Have to hope for one of those convective snow bands to pass through your area and lay down a nice coating. Light snow showers won't do anything with temperatures between 33-36F in the lower elevations.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline Flash

Re: Jan 15-16 Snow Chance
« Reply #7 on: January 15, 2021, 10:38:54 AM »
Perhaps we can get some Kentucky Lake enhanced snow squalls?
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

Offline gcbama

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,891
  • Location: Lewis County Tn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: Jan 15-16 Snow Chance
« Reply #8 on: January 15, 2021, 10:44:11 AM »
i will say there is a more of a southern component to the motion of the moisture on radar than i thought there would be?

Offline schneitzeit

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,610
  • Location: SW Williamson County
  • Tornado Alley moved SE.
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2209
Re: Jan 15-16 Snow Chance
« Reply #9 on: January 15, 2021, 10:48:03 AM »
There was a flash freeze in my area after the rain showers moved through early this morning. Temperatures dropped down to 30F and a light coating of ice was on vegetation.

Still some patches of snow left from last week.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline gcbama

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,891
  • Location: Lewis County Tn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: Jan 15-16 Snow Chance
« Reply #10 on: January 15, 2021, 10:58:49 AM »
There was a flash freeze in my area after the rain showers moved through early this morning. Temperatures dropped down to 30F and a light coating of ice was on vegetation.

Still some patches of snow left from last week.

My last snow patches JUST gave up the ghost a little bit ago, quite impressive that it held on for so long

Offline Eric

  • IF THE NAM VERIFIES
  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 15,277
  • Location: MTSU by day, Morrison by night
  • Call sign: KJ4IXE
    • My Blog...
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 972
Re: Jan 15-16 Snow Chance
« Reply #11 on: January 15, 2021, 10:59:01 AM »
i will say there is a more of a southern component to the motion of the moisture on radar than i thought there would be?

That may be the upper level low swinging more southward.  OHX mentioned it this morning.
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

Offline gcbama

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,891
  • Location: Lewis County Tn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: Jan 15-16 Snow Chance
« Reply #12 on: January 15, 2021, 11:07:04 AM »
That may be the upper level low swinging more southward.  OHX mentioned it this morning.

It is really diving south a lot more than east right now, could be beneficial to us, Time to radar watch/nowcast now imo

Offline Eric

  • IF THE NAM VERIFIES
  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 15,277
  • Location: MTSU by day, Morrison by night
  • Call sign: KJ4IXE
    • My Blog...
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 972
Re: Jan 15-16 Snow Chance
« Reply #13 on: January 15, 2021, 11:16:15 AM »
OHX -

Quote
12Z model runs are coming in, and are showing pretty much the same
setup as previous runs. Did not adjust the forecast too much over
the next 36 hours. However, CAMs are showing potential for some
light rain/flurries moving through this afternoon especially for
the I-65 corridor and eastward to the Plateau. Adjusted pops
slightly to account for this. Other than that just updated near
term forecast to line up with obs trends. Rest of the forecast
remains on track.
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,631
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Jan 15-16 Snow Chance
« Reply #14 on: January 15, 2021, 12:10:54 PM »
HRR actually has convective snow showers this far west about midnight. Nice but I won

 

*

March 2021 (The Snow Lion Version)
by JayCee
[Today at 01:10:57 PM]
March 2021
by snowdog
[Today at 11:54:47 AM]
The Tornado Videos Thread
by schneitzeit
[Today at 07:52:03 AM]
Heavy Rain/Flooding/Severe Risk: Feb 27-28
by Matthew
[March 01, 2021, 05:29:50 PM]
Home weather station recommendations
by ryandourius
[March 01, 2021, 01:33:47 AM]