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Author Topic: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)  (Read 4793 times)

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Offline StormNine

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Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
« on: January 09, 2021, 12:34:23 PM »
This is I think my 2nd or 3rd winter thread.  This is about the ULL action that will impact TX and LA and perhaps sneak into West and Middle TN.   

Offline Drifter

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Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
« Reply #1 on: January 09, 2021, 12:38:03 PM »
I like the title.


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To enjoy things in life that are good, you first must endure things that suck!
Bring on the snow baby!!!

Offline JayCee

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Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
« Reply #2 on: January 09, 2021, 12:56:18 PM »
I like the title.


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I didn't know titles to winter weather threads could be so provocative.  ::rofl::
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
« Reply #3 on: January 09, 2021, 03:31:24 PM »
At this point I am not really expecting anyone to get measureable snowfall over 1" statewide. Sorry but nothing is really convinced me otherwise. 20-30% POP.... I am not sure what we are doing here.


Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
« Reply #4 on: January 09, 2021, 04:02:01 PM »
18Z GFS does increase QPF a bit but its a bit sporadic. Looking like around .10" of a inch on avg for the favored areas. Still meager, dry air can and likely will win out north of the TN border. But I could always be wrong.

18Z


12Z



18Z

12Z

« Last Edit: January 09, 2021, 04:08:27 PM by Nashville_Wx »


Offline gcbama

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Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
« Reply #5 on: January 09, 2021, 04:14:07 PM »
I am late in the game on doing this, but i am sticking a fork in this one....oh well, i do get annoyed when places WELL farther south than us get a big snow, but at least i got my good ULL surprise snow this week, but this one is starting to look more and more like a DOA for us....too bad

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
« Reply #6 on: January 09, 2021, 04:24:01 PM »
I am late in the game on doing this, but i am sticking a fork in this one....oh well, i do get annoyed when places WELL farther south than us get a big snow, but at least i got my good ULL surprise snow this week, but this one is starting to look more and more like a DOA for us....too bad

Extinct or dormant
Or active maybe
Lava and magma
What could this thing be?
It spins at 1,000 miles per hour
Although it is not a fairground ride
At its center there is a molten core
And it has a crust on its outside



Offline StormNine

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Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
« Reply #7 on: January 09, 2021, 04:28:13 PM »
I like the trends for parts of SW or SW Middle TN to have perhaps an Advisory level event.  The models don't weaken the ULL quite as quickly and remember they often do underestimate precipitation fields and tend to weaken systems like this too quickly.

It isn't too much of a wish cast to think that some areas west of I-65 and along and south of I-40 may see an Advisory level event. 

The big story is TX and LA. The Natchitoches LA to Vicksburg MS corridor could very well score a Top 10 if not Top 5 event in their history.  Same for the area between Austin and Waco, TX.   

Offline StormNine

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Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
« Reply #8 on: January 09, 2021, 04:28:59 PM »
Extinct or dormant
Or active maybe
Lava and magma
What could this thing be?
It spins at 1,000 miles per hour
Although it is not a fairground ride
At its center there is a molten core
And it has a crust on its outside

My brain after a winter full of watching weather models.   

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
« Reply #9 on: January 09, 2021, 04:31:20 PM »
I like the trends for parts of SW or SW Middle TN to have perhaps an Advisory level event.  The models don't weaken the ULL quite as quickly and remember they often do underestimate precipitation fields and tend to weaken systems like this too quickly.

It isn't too much of a wish cast to think that some areas west of I-65 and along and south of I-40 may see an Advisory level event. 

The big story is TX and LA. The Natchitoches LA to Vicksburg MS corridor could very well score a Top 10 if not Top 5 event in their history.  Same for the area between Austin and Waco, TX.

OHX did mention some dry air to deal with in the mid levels



Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
« Reply #10 on: January 09, 2021, 04:36:28 PM »
We always seem to have dry air to deal with, if we got the precip it's too warm if it gets cold enough dry air wins. It does seem like it happens alot. ::snowman::

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
« Reply #11 on: January 09, 2021, 04:39:19 PM »
We always seem to have dry air to deal with, if we got the precip it's too warm if it gets cold enough dry air wins. It does seem like it happens alot. ::snowman::

Nothing to be surprised about. Its just the way it is here.


Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
« Reply #12 on: January 09, 2021, 04:40:40 PM »
Nothing to be surprised about. Its just the way it is here.
Who is surprised?

Offline gcbama

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Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
« Reply #13 on: January 09, 2021, 05:14:57 PM »
We always seem to have dry air to deal with, if we got the precip it's too warm if it gets cold enough dry air wins. It does seem like it happens alot. ::snowman::

Yep it has to be a perfect mix here, dry air wins a lot of the battles ,  either that or it's too warm and we get rain, such is the tennessee life

Offline Flash

Re: Snow on the Delta Bottoms (Jan 11th Event)
« Reply #14 on: January 09, 2021, 05:29:00 PM »
Yeah, I noticed the trends were slightly better. Still, this is a SWS event for most on the board. I wouldn’t write it off completely but if the 0z suite is a step in the wrong direction, I’m out.

I like the trends for parts of SW or SW Middle TN to have perhaps an Advisory level event.  The models don't weaken the ULL quite as quickly and remember they often do underestimate precipitation fields and tend to weaken systems like this too quickly.

It isn't too much of a wish cast to think that some areas west of I-65 and along and south of I-40 may see an Advisory level event. 

The big story is TX and LA. The Natchitoches LA to Vicksburg MS corridor could very well score a Top 10 if not Top 5 event in their history.  Same for the area between Austin and Waco, TX.
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

 

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