January 2021

[BALLPARK]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2021012412&fh=84

[BALLPARK]

All the models showing some sort of snow for my area in the next 84 hours. Its a little bit of a surprise.

[JayCee]

I'd like to know how you can see six weeks into the future. The current pattern ain't enthralling, but this isn't over yet. It's January 24th.

Was it over on March 11th, 1993? Was it over on March 6th, 2008?  Or on February 28th, 2009?

If memory serves (and it does fail me from time to time), the winter of 2015 was a no-show until the middle of February of that year.  I don't recall anything meaningful in terms of cold/snow until meteorological winter was nearly over.  But that 2 week stretch in middle/late February was pretty epic for the time.  We had several cold outbreaks.  One severe Arctic outbreak in conjunction with a snow and ice storm depending on where you live in TN.  The Arctic front, itself, dropped about 2 inches in snow squalls on top of a half inch of ice that was left over from the first storm.  After that, we had several snow accumulation events, including one near 7" for my location.  We had no clue it was coming by this point in that winter, so it's a bit premature to say winter is done with us right now.     

[schneitzeit]

Didn't Knoxville get several inches on April 2, 1987?

[StormNine]

If memory serves (and it does fail me from time to time), the winter of 2015 was a no-show until the middle of February of that year.  I don't recall anything meaningful in terms of cold/snow until meteorological winter was nearly over.  But that 2 week stretch in middle/late February was pretty epic for the time.  We had several cold outbreaks.  One severe Arctic outbreak in conjunction with a snow and ice storm depending on where you live in TN.  The Arctic front, itself, dropped about 2 inches in snow squalls on top of a half inch of ice that was left over from the first storm.  After that, we had several snow accumulation events, including one near 7" for my location.  We had no clue it was coming by this point in that winter, so it's a bit premature to say winter is done with us right now.   

That winter didn't really kick into gear till the epic Presidents Day Weekend Storm, but unlike this winter that winter did have some legit cold snaps before then although quick-lived and that El-Nino's did to have more favorable ends versus La-Nina's although this winter has acted far from a La-Nina and our past two El-Nino's have acted far from El-Nino's so that may be a moot point.   

[Nash_LSU]

12z CMC and 18Z v16 and RGEM are wanting some mostly statewide flakes later this week. I might give them a little nibble, but I'm not biting down on that shiny hook. 

[JayCee]

Didn't Knoxville get several inches on April 2, 1987?

I lived in southern KY at the time, but you are correct.  In early April, some significant snow fell in this part of world in '87.  But, of course, it was the 80's.  Winter had more of a bite back then. 

[Clarksville Snowman]

12z CMC and 18Z v16 and RGEM are wanting some mostly statewide flakes later this week. I might give them a little nibble, but I'm not biting down on that shiny hook.

It's been showing up for a few runs now, looks good for tennessee and kentucky especially I-40 north right now. But it's still aways out for sure.

[rkhvoljohnsoncity]

My weather channel app on my phone is now showing 1-3 inches for Johnson City for Wednesday night. It will probably not be there by tomorrow


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[Nashville_Wx]

My favorite thing to preach. Stop taking the models verbatim into the mid/long term. There is a reasonable amount of confidence you can put in the short term. Past that living by each model run at the surface is going to stress you out.  I think everyone will be surprised as localized events stack up through the end of the season and into Spring.

[Jeremy]

Looks like we're starting to get some agreement from the euro and GFS for Wednesday

[schneitzeit]

Add CMC to the mix

[mamMATTus]

Do you know how I knew we weren't going to get 2-3" of rain over the last 24 hours? It's because OHX put out a forecast calling for exactly that a few days ago for the umpteenth dozen time.

[schneitzeit]

Euro's Oozie run, if anyone's interested. May be the first accumulating snow for some areas in the western part of the state who haven't seen any yet.

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[Drifter]

Euro's Oozie run, if anyone's interested. May be the first accumulating snow for some areas in the western part of the state who haven't seen any yet.

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At my apartment in Indiana. I wanna cash out the 5.8 inches painted here and run.
IND is thinking as of now most of the precip will be south.

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