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Author Topic: January 2021  (Read 41035 times)

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Offline BALLPARK

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Offline BALLPARK

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #856 on: January 24, 2021, 12:37:36 PM »
All the models showing some sort of snow for my area in the next 84 hours. Its a little bit of a surprise.

Offline JayCee

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #857 on: January 24, 2021, 12:46:48 PM »
I'd like to know how you can see six weeks into the future. The current pattern ain't enthralling, but this isn't over yet. It's January 24th.

Was it over on March 11th, 1993? Was it over on March 6th, 2008?  Or on February 28th, 2009?



If memory serves (and it does fail me from time to time), the winter of 2015 was a no-show until the middle of February of that year.  I don't recall anything meaningful in terms of cold/snow until meteorological winter was nearly over.  But that 2 week stretch in middle/late February was pretty epic for the time.  We had several cold outbreaks.  One severe Arctic outbreak in conjunction with a snow and ice storm depending on where you live in TN.  The Arctic front, itself, dropped about 2 inches in snow squalls on top of a half inch of ice that was left over from the first storm.  After that, we had several snow accumulation events, including one near 7" for my location.  We had no clue it was coming by this point in that winter, so it's a bit premature to say winter is done with us right now.     
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #858 on: January 24, 2021, 02:28:07 PM »
Didn't Knoxville get several inches on April 2, 1987?
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline StormNine

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #859 on: January 24, 2021, 04:16:03 PM »
If memory serves (and it does fail me from time to time), the winter of 2015 was a no-show until the middle of February of that year.  I don't recall anything meaningful in terms of cold/snow until meteorological winter was nearly over.  But that 2 week stretch in middle/late February was pretty epic for the time.  We had several cold outbreaks.  One severe Arctic outbreak in conjunction with a snow and ice storm depending on where you live in TN.  The Arctic front, itself, dropped about 2 inches in snow squalls on top of a half inch of ice that was left over from the first storm.  After that, we had several snow accumulation events, including one near 7" for my location.  We had no clue it was coming by this point in that winter, so it's a bit premature to say winter is done with us right now.   

That winter didn't really kick into gear till the epic Presidents Day Weekend Storm, but unlike this winter that winter did have some legit cold snaps before then although quick-lived and that El-Nino's did to have more favorable ends versus La-Nina's although this winter has acted far from a La-Nina and our past two El-Nino's have acted far from El-Nino's so that may be a moot point.   

Offline Nash_LSU

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #860 on: January 24, 2021, 08:10:39 PM »
12z CMC and 18Z v16 and RGEM are wanting some mostly statewide flakes later this week. I might give them a little nibble, but I'm not biting down on that shiny hook. 

Offline JayCee

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #861 on: January 24, 2021, 10:14:40 PM »
Didn't Knoxville get several inches on April 2, 1987?

I lived in southern KY at the time, but you are correct.  In early April, some significant snow fell in this part of world in '87.  But, of course, it was the 80's.  Winter had more of a bite back then. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #862 on: January 24, 2021, 10:17:14 PM »
12z CMC and 18Z v16 and RGEM are wanting some mostly statewide flakes later this week. I might give them a little nibble, but I'm not biting down on that shiny hook.
It's been showing up for a few runs now, looks good for tennessee and kentucky especially I-40 north right now. But it's still aways out for sure.

Offline rkhvoljohnsoncity

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #863 on: January 24, 2021, 10:20:18 PM »
My weather channel app on my phone is now showing 1-3 inches for Johnson City for Wednesday night. It will probably not be there by tomorrow


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Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #864 on: January 24, 2021, 10:56:48 PM »
My favorite thing to preach. Stop taking the models verbatim into the mid/long term. There is a reasonable amount of confidence you can put in the short term. Past that living by each model run at the surface is going to stress you out.  I think everyone will be surprised as localized events stack up through the end of the season and into Spring.


Offline Jeremy

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #865 on: January 25, 2021, 12:10:56 AM »
Looks like we're starting to get some agreement from the euro and GFS for Wednesday

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #866 on: January 25, 2021, 07:48:18 AM »
Add CMC to the mix
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #867 on: January 25, 2021, 07:51:09 AM »
Do you know how I knew we weren't going to get 2-3" of rain over the last 24 hours? It's because OHX put out a forecast calling for exactly that a few days ago for the umpteenth dozen time.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #868 on: January 25, 2021, 07:57:36 AM »
Euro's Oozie run, if anyone's interested. May be the first accumulating snow for some areas in the western part of the state who haven't seen any yet.

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Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline Drifter

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January 2021
« Reply #869 on: January 25, 2021, 08:00:44 AM »
Euro's Oozie run, if anyone's interested. May be the first accumulating snow for some areas in the western part of the state who haven't seen any yet.

(Attachment Link)
At my apartment in Indiana. I wanna cash out the 5.8 inches painted here and run.
IND is thinking as of now most of the precip will be south.

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« Last Edit: January 25, 2021, 08:24:43 AM by Drifter »
To enjoy things in life that are good, you first must endure things that suck!
Bring on the snow baby!!!

 

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