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Author Topic: January 2021  (Read 24652 times)

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Offline Curt

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January 2021
« Reply #660 on: January 13, 2021, 10:55:07 PM »
Look at #1 and #10. Appears they had one 1Ē+ snow in 2900 days.


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Add in #6 and you get two > 1 inch snowstorms in almost 3900 days. They more then made up for it afterwards.Kids in elementary to Sr High from 1989 to 2000 truly didnít know what a snow day meant.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2021, 10:57:31 PM by Curt »

Offline Curt

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January 2021
« Reply #661 on: January 13, 2021, 11:00:15 PM »
My wife is working at nights from home and it gave me time to do an analysis of 96 winter storms (more west centric) from 1948 to present. Lots of data to come but the most important teleconnection for a winter storm is the EPO>AO>NAO>PNA.

Offline StormNine

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #662 on: January 14, 2021, 03:54:50 AM »
As bad as this winter has been for snow outside of a few select south and east TN locations the -NAO has saved us from a winter that would probably rival 2011-2012 in all-out suck if it wasn't there.   

Offline Flash

Re: January 2021
« Reply #663 on: January 14, 2021, 07:53:30 AM »
In terms of light snow prospects, recent NAM runs looking interesting for the weekend. Hard to get excited for <1" ops during peak winter climo but it seems there's a little something to watch as we wait for long-term clarity.
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #664 on: January 14, 2021, 08:02:50 AM »
My wife is working at nights from home and it gave me time to do an analysis of 96 winter storms (more west centric) from 1948 to present. Lots of data to come but the most important teleconnection for a winter storm is the EPO>AO>NAO>PNA.

Excellent work, Curt. I have seen a map published where snowfall amounts in the Tennessee Valley increase by 75-100% with a strongly negative AO. That's good news for us, as our -AO is not expected to budge at least going into February. I'm glad your analysis has found it to be a teleconnection with a high correlation for winter storms here.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline snowdog

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #665 on: January 14, 2021, 08:34:31 AM »
My wife is working at nights from home and it gave me time to do an analysis of 96 winter storms (more west centric) from 1948 to present. Lots of data to come but the most important teleconnection for a winter storm is the EPO>AO>NAO>PNA.

You have my attention, go on...   ::popcorn::

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #666 on: January 14, 2021, 08:40:21 AM »
In terms of light snow prospects, recent NAM runs looking interesting for the weekend. Hard to get excited for <1" ops during peak winter climo but it seems there's a little something to watch as we wait for long-term clarity.

Not a ton of moisture with this next system but its going to be interesting to watch. If models are under estimating QPG and it does push right on into Middle and East TN a advisory will likely be hoisted along the KY and TN border into the Plateau region. We will have some dry air to work with again but overall it light snow showers are likely for most North of I-40 and East of I-65. Globals have the medium term a mess right now. One signal I am seeing is a Atmospheric River setting up in the next 10-15 days along the West coast. Much further South with a better direction for the Sierras. This will throw a pretty big ridge up in the central US. Where this axis sets up is going to determine a lot. I suspect 240 hours out will change drastically as these upper level systems decide what they want to do.


Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #667 on: January 14, 2021, 09:26:07 AM »
My wife is working at nights from home and it gave me time to do an analysis of 96 winter storms (more west centric) from 1948 to present. Lots of data to come but the most important teleconnection for a winter storm is the EPO>AO>NAO>PNA.
I have never been impressed with the - NAO for west Tn. It can help but it helps east of here much more. Now the - AO is a different story.

Offline Curt

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #668 on: January 14, 2021, 10:07:51 AM »
You have my attention, go on...   ::popcorn::
There some really good data by just analyzing records. When I get settled for a period of time, I will get some stats out. For starters, 60 of the 96 winter storms in west Tn(and most of not all were for Middle and at least parts of East) required a negative EPO.

Offline Mr. Golf

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #669 on: January 14, 2021, 10:24:59 AM »
There some really good data by just analyzing records. When I get settled for a period of time, I will get some stats out. For starters, 60 of the 96 winter storms in west Tn(and most of not all were for Middle and at least parts of East) required a negative EPO.
When you have more time, look at the pna as well and how that correlated with winter storms here in the midsouth. I mean was it more negative, positive, neutral in our biggest systems.

Offline Matthew

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #670 on: January 14, 2021, 10:38:10 AM »
I think it is looking great for some snow showers that could pack quiet a punch for tomorrow night and the one early Monday.  The second one appears to be a classic clipper.  Been sometime since seen those. To me anything we get before the really cold air settles in.  Is a bonus.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #671 on: January 14, 2021, 11:00:55 AM »
I think it is looking great for some snow showers that could pack quiet a punch for tomorrow night and the one early Monday.  The second one appears to be a classic clipper.  Been sometime since seen those. To me anything we get before the really cold air settles in.  Is a bonus.
The NAM actually looks like it is trying to pop some thundersnow showers.

Offline Coach B

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #672 on: January 14, 2021, 11:35:22 AM »
The NAM actually looks like it is trying to pop some thundersnow showers.
Can see it in the streaky accum maps:


Most generous/widespread one I could find:

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #673 on: January 14, 2021, 11:40:59 AM »
Good. We need that to patch in those areas of the state with snow holes this winter. Looking at West Tennessee and Northern Middle.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline gcbama

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #674 on: January 14, 2021, 11:45:39 AM »
Can see it in the streaky accum maps:


Most generous/widespread one I could find:


that would be an interesting little surprise for sure

 

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