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Author Topic: January 2021  (Read 28720 times)

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Offline schneitzeit

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January 2021
« on: December 27, 2020, 04:52:42 AM »
With a possible winter storm on the horizon for some of our forum area to kick off January, I went ahead and started a separate thread.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline rkhvoljohnsoncity

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #1 on: December 27, 2020, 07:12:51 AM »
I am not very good at reading weather maps but the next 2 weeks shows several areas of low pressure coming out of the western gulf and moving straight north. Looks like the southeast ridge again. Hope I am wrong or that changes


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Offline Curt

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #2 on: December 27, 2020, 07:14:14 AM »
Probably ok to put the death knell into the NYE and day event. The gfs is moving west now the meet the other globals albeit still in Arkansas. The euro control this morning has a Oklahoma blizzard. Oklahoma just seems to be the default winner of all things winter so far. Even with a negative NAO- itís going to cut into the plains. I donít see this coming back this way.

Pattern looks to get ugly afterwards before we see what if anything the strat warm will do in the last half of January.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #3 on: December 27, 2020, 07:25:02 AM »
Probably ok to put the death knell into the NYE and day event. The gfs is moving west now the meet the other globals albeit still in Arkansas. The euro control this morning has a Oklahoma blizzard. Oklahoma just seems to be the default winner of all things winter so far. Even with a negative NAO- itís going to cut into the plains. I donít see this coming back this way.

Pattern looks to get ugly afterwards before we see what if anything the strat warm will do in the last half of January.
well fun while it lasted. I was really getting excited for a big winter storm . Like score least one good one this winter
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #4 on: December 27, 2020, 07:29:35 AM »
well fun while it lasted. I was really getting excited for a big winter storm . Like score least one good one this winter
I think the first half of January is toast looking at the ensembles. I doubt that lasts throughout the entire month but not a good signal for the next 15 days. The SSW is almost in stone at this point which will take a couple of weeks to move down into the lower levels of the atmosphere. Thatís certainly to our advantage at some point.

Offline gcbama

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #5 on: December 27, 2020, 08:55:21 AM »
well fun while it lasted. I was really getting excited for a big winter storm . Like score least one good one this winter

even i got excited, oh well such is life here in tennessee

the classic west northwest trend strikes again lol
« Last Edit: December 27, 2020, 08:59:25 AM by gcbama »

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #6 on: December 27, 2020, 10:11:37 AM »
It will probably do it but I have to say it is weird the way the LP goes into northern mississippi then just goes due north and on this last run actually back towards the northwest. A very odd looking track, right into a HP. I know they can do that, but it looks strange.  ::popcorn::

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #7 on: December 27, 2020, 10:13:03 AM »
even i got excited, oh well such is life here in tennessee

the classic west northwest trend strikes again lol

Yeah it was def locked in hard. We were all anxiously awaiting this mega storm. Oh well , thanks for nothing.


Offline gcbama

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #8 on: December 27, 2020, 10:25:03 AM »
Yeah it was def locked in hard. We were all anxiously awaiting this mega storm. Oh well , thanks for nothing.
''I will start looking for low's to form in tampa on the gfs now 5 days out and wait for the northwest trend lol....however blizzard alley sure looks to score again

Offline BRUCE

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #9 on: December 27, 2020, 11:02:52 AM »
the gfs still wants to keep trending more more nw...lol at this rate if it keeps up, we may have to deal with thunderstorms lol... not saying severe now :)
Come on severe wx season...

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #10 on: December 27, 2020, 11:16:09 AM »
Yeah it was def locked in hard. We were all anxiously awaiting this mega storm. Oh well , thanks for nothing.

Sarcasm is trickier to detect in writing versus speech, let alone on an anonymous message board  ;D

Seriously, though, this is nothing, guys. There was never consistent model agreement on this storm. You see instances like these several times per winter- why so surprised?

A real missed opportunity occurs when you're expected to receive a couple inches or more w/in 12 hours, and *poof*.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline snowdog

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #11 on: December 27, 2020, 11:16:31 AM »
even i got excited, oh well such is life here in tennessee

the classic west northwest trend strikes again lol

Go west young man, havent you been told, California's full of whiskey, women and gold....

-Toby Keith

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #12 on: December 27, 2020, 11:32:07 AM »
The canadian seems to have came just a tick east, not enough to help many but did appear to get into extreme west tn on the 12z. Just something to keep a eye on. Especially for west tn folks. ::popcorn::

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #13 on: December 27, 2020, 12:01:14 PM »
Here is something I have observed and generally "should" make sense. When looking at the 500mb pattern we have seen a lot of lows. Many at a time, and constantly showing up in the extended.  Small changes in strength and timing effect how these latch on to the upper level jet should they become completely detached. What we say just 24 hours ago both streams were more evolved. We now have the cut off over southern Cali meandering around , allowing the blocking Northern energy to pass on allowing the cut off low to crank up and pull itself NNE. 00Z Monday night should have a pretty good sample on where that cali cut off is, and the timing of it ejecting out. Everything moved West for a reason but can move back east as whatever comes out of cali is still projected. We have no idea what its really going to do. This has been a trend all season allowing the forecasts to change 120hr out dramatically. I try and put the small pieces together, why models are doing what they are doing, and what trends we are seeing. Def not the same storm as last time per 12Z data today. Yesterday they were talking about a copy.







00Z GFS Sunday


VS today @ 12Z GFS








« Last Edit: December 27, 2020, 12:03:25 PM by Nashville_Wx »


Offline BRUCE

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Re: January 2021
« Reply #14 on: December 27, 2020, 12:25:18 PM »
Wow 12z euro  just hammers southeast Oklahoma n extreme nw Arkansas
Come on severe wx season...

 

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