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Author Topic: December 2020  (Read 39475 times)

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Offline schneitzeit

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Re: December 2020
« Reply #75 on: November 26, 2020, 11:09:26 AM »
The CMC is the only one not sending all of this north. The other globals have backed out of the Mid-State for Nov 30- Dec 1
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: December 2020
« Reply #76 on: November 26, 2020, 11:25:57 AM »
The CMC is the only one not sending all of this north. The other globals have backed out of the Mid-State for Nov 30- Dec 1
Agree. The map I posted was for Dec3-5. As Curt mentioned the second system has cold air to work with.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: December 2020
« Reply #77 on: November 26, 2020, 12:10:30 PM »
Agree. The map I posted was for Dec3-5. As Curt mentioned the second system has cold air to work with.

The CMC could be accounting for the cold squeezing out the moisture on the backside. Still very probable as this event is 4 days away, and we all know how fickle the model runs are.

I think everyone except for the highest elevations can pass on expecting snow from the initial band of precipitation, but the deformation band of this storm is still in play. However, it looks less likely for the western 2/3rds of the state.

As you mentioned in your post, @Dyersburg Weather, there could be another winter storm by the end of the first week of December- if it's cold enough. The Canadian is really bullish on cold, and it along with that strange GFS-Para are the only models with that storm. But that's 8 days away.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline gcbama

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Re: December 2020
« Reply #78 on: November 26, 2020, 12:39:55 PM »
Merry Thanksgiving from the CMC.

(Attachment Link)

10 days out, not biting,,,sure is a pretty map though :)

Offline Bruce

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Re: December 2020
« Reply #79 on: November 26, 2020, 01:11:09 PM »
10 days out, not biting,,,sure is a pretty map though :)
10 days plus cmc... lol
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline StormNine

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Re: December 2020
« Reply #80 on: November 26, 2020, 01:30:10 PM »
The real winners are those north of I-64 and east of I-65 with the backside snow.  Since the low retrogrades, it will keep snow showers in that area going for days. What a treat for places like Cincinnati, OH; Madison, IN; and Fort Wayne, IN   

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: December 2020
« Reply #81 on: November 26, 2020, 02:18:13 PM »
It's playing out exactly like I thought it would lol. Everything falls apart like clockwork on the models as the projected dates close in. I've learned  ::shrug::

Offline JayCee

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Re: December 2020
« Reply #82 on: November 26, 2020, 02:26:18 PM »
Amazing how radically the models changed over the last 48 hours--even the almighty EURO.  Once, it had heavy snow as far south as parts of TN.  Now, it's mostly near and north of the Ohio River.  But, even there amounts have backed WAY off, and are no where near what was shown by most modelling just yesterday.  Kentucky *might* see some sort of coating at this point, but even there amounts keep going down.  Tuesday once appeared to have snow falling for many of us for a good part of the day.  Now, EURO shows NADA. 

I guess for TN, anyway, this storm was a fiction.  I had a feeling in my gut, but as I do every single winter, I ignored it.   Will I ever learn?  Probably not.
 ::coffee::
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline gcbama

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Re: December 2020
« Reply #83 on: November 26, 2020, 03:01:13 PM »
It's playing out exactly like I thought it would lol. Everything falls apart like clockwork on the models as the projected dates close in. I've learned  ::shrug::

yep, unless it's 48-60 hours away i don't give any thing a second glance when it comes to winter

Offline Curt

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Re: December 2020
« Reply #84 on: November 26, 2020, 03:29:58 PM »
yep, unless it's 48-60 hours away i don't give any thing a second glance when it comes to winter
More likely- don

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: December 2020
« Reply #85 on: November 26, 2020, 04:08:11 PM »
Hopefully still a good event for those of you up on the Plateau. Crockett, you there? You may see an inch or two.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline Beth

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Re: December 2020
« Reply #86 on: November 26, 2020, 04:45:09 PM »
Maybe we will see a passing flurry!  I would love to have more but just seeing a few flakes would be okay!
Happy Thanksgiving to all my friends here!

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: December 2020
« Reply #87 on: November 26, 2020, 04:51:48 PM »
Maybe we will see a passing flurry!  I would love to have more but just seeing a few flakes would be okay!
Happy Thanksgiving to all my friends here!
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline Bruce

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Re: December 2020
« Reply #88 on: November 26, 2020, 05:08:21 PM »
Best teleconnections to get snow ⛄️ in our area is negative nao and negative ao.  Pna negative also... positive pna leads us to only cold dry suppressed pattern.  Sure someone argue with me on this.  I learned this from experience.
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: December 2020
« Reply #89 on: November 26, 2020, 06:30:17 PM »
The mesoscale models, namely the NAM and RGEM, are up next for this storm to be in range. They go out to 84 hours. I don't really trust them beyond 60, but it'll be interesting to see what they have in store for us nonetheless.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

 

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