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Going to be warm by January? Probably, but back it up with evidence.
From the models being somewhat consistent, I'd say everyone will see snow flying at some point early next week. The current track of the storm just along the Apps would put the emphasis on accumulations in the mid-state into Kentucky and on the plateau, but with a decent coating to a few inches also possible in the eastern central and northern valley due to an abundance of wrap around moisture. Of course, the mountains get much more. It's somewhat early for such a strong winter cyclone here, but the pattern supports it, and the models keep showing a similar evolution run to run. It's just a matter of nailing the specifics down now.
The track of the low on the Euro is pretty much the exact same track that the fictional low on my fiction story I will work on next year takes.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through WednesdayA system will move through during the Sunday through Wendesdaytimeframe that may produce snow across portions of the area. Thehighest confidence for snow is across the higher terrain areas.Snow across valley locations is highly uncertain at this time butit is at least worth mentioning and something we will be watchingclosely.
MRX is typing...All aboard the SNOW TRAIN!!! WOOT WOOT
.LONG TERM......(Thursday night through Wednesday)...Main focus of the long term is on the system for next week.Thanksgiving night should be pleasant. The cold front will be wellto our east with drier air firmly in place. Overnight lows will fallinto the lower 40s for most places. Zonal flow in place on Friday aswe are caught in between the southern and northern jet. Fridayshould be pleasant as well with plenty of sun and temps in the lowto mid 60s. Two systems approach our area, one to the north and oneto the south, Friday evening through Saturday morning. It looks likethe only affects we will see will be an increase in cloud cover as.However, do have a very small area of slight chance POPs in placeright along the TN/GA state line but even these areas will mostlikely stay dry. Saturday is our last nice day before a veryinteresting system begins to move in later on Sunday. Saturdayshould feature plenty of sun with mild temps in the upper 50s to low60s.Now for what you`ve been waiting for. The Sunday through Wednesdaysystem is very interesting as there is a lot going on. I hate todisappoint but I will go ahead and say that this forecast is highlyuncertain due to the timing, evolution, and track. So I guess youcan say the certainty lies in the uncertainty, as least for now. Thegeneral theme with this system looks like we will see rain on thefront-end due to strong southerly flow, colder air on the backside,and then rain transitioning to snow across the higher terrain andpossibly some valley locations with whatever precip is leftover.The GFS and ECMWF continue to handle this system quite differently.most of the features are the same it`s just how the models handlethem. The main difference is that the ECMWF rapidly intensifies thelow as the northern and southern streams phase together. This rapidintensification would promote colder air and higher QPF. The phasingwith the GFS isn`t quite as in sync as it is with the ECMWF. Thismeans you have less QPF and not as big a push of cold air. Bothmodels generally show the system exiting sometime on Wednesday.For a few more details, a cutoff low will be moving across thecentral Plains on Sunday. This feature will be picked up and usheredalong by a trough that is dropping down out of Canada. Rain looks tospread into the region from south to north on Sunday. Cross mountainflow ahead of this system at 850 mb could result in a low-endmountain wave event Sunday night into Monday morning with 850 mbwinds around 40 kts. The bulk of the QPF occurs late Sunday throughMonday morning. A cold front will then pass through sometime onMonday and cold air will quickly move into the region. Rain willfirst change over to snow across the high terrain then across somevalley locations. All areas should be cold enough to see some snowMonday night. On Tuesday, wrap around moisture moves into the regionon the back side of the low. Snow to start areawide Tuesday morningbut then transitioning back to rain by late morning/early afternoonfor most valley locations. The higher elevations, along withportions of the northern plateau, northeast TN, and southwest VAcould remain all snow through the day on Tuesday. Any lingeringmoisture changes back to all snow Tuesday night for all areas. Thissystem finally begins to lift out of the area by late Wednesdayafternoon. Event total rainfall ranges from 0.5 inches to 1.25inches before the frontal passage on Monday.So in closing, confidence is quite high that the higher terrainareas will see snow during this event; how much is still to bedetermined. The valley is much more uncertain as was mentionedearlier. I will say that if recent runs of the ECMWF are correctthat there is a very good chance that most valley locations will seesome snow and perhaps even some light accumulations. However, thereare just too many uncertainties at this point to get any morespecific with the forecast. Bottom line, please stay tuned to theforecast because this system has the potential to bring snow acrossmuch of the area but the uncertainty is very high across the lowerelevations.
Snow to start areawide Tuesday morningbut then transitioning back to rain by late morning/early afternoonfor most valley locations.
I've seen MRX make this call many times before, but I've never seen snow change back to rain with this dynamic of a system. The upper levels will certainly be no problem. Everything will fall as snow. The Euro shows most of the central and northern valley at or below freezing all day Tuesday. So, saying the snow will change back to rain makes zero sense.
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Topic: December 2020 (Read 39474 times)
