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Author Topic: December 2020  (Read 39474 times)

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Offline gcbama

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Re: December 2020
« Reply #60 on: November 25, 2020, 12:55:13 PM »


Going to be warm by January? Probably, but back it up with evidence.

I think he was just being sarcastic since past few winters have really stunk for us :) But i am keeping my fingers crossed ....nobody knows what will truly happen more than a week out.....i seem to remember the climate prediction for late nov and early dec to be well above average and that is not going to be the case next week for sure....we just never know, Lady luck may smile on us this year :)

Offline JayCee

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Re: December 2020
« Reply #61 on: November 25, 2020, 01:30:05 PM »
From the models being somewhat consistent, I'd say everyone will see snow flying at some point early next week.  The current track of the storm just along the Apps would put the emphasis on accumulations in the mid-state into Kentucky and on the plateau, but with a decent coating to a few inches also possible in the eastern central and northern valley due to an abundance of wrap around moisture.  Of course, the mountains get much more.  It's somewhat early for such a strong winter cyclone here, but the pattern supports it, and the models keep showing a similar evolution run to run.  It's just a matter of nailing the specifics down now.   
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline StormNine

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Re: December 2020
« Reply #62 on: November 25, 2020, 01:52:21 PM »
From the models being somewhat consistent, I'd say everyone will see snow flying at some point early next week.  The current track of the storm just along the Apps would put the emphasis on accumulations in the mid-state into Kentucky and on the plateau, but with a decent coating to a few inches also possible in the eastern central and northern valley due to an abundance of wrap around moisture.  Of course, the mountains get much more.  It's somewhat early for such a strong winter cyclone here, but the pattern supports it, and the models keep showing a similar evolution run to run.  It's just a matter of nailing the specifics down now.

The track of the low on the Euro is pretty much the exact same track that the fictional low on my fiction story I will work on next year takes.   

Offline JayCee

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Re: December 2020
« Reply #63 on: November 25, 2020, 02:15:10 PM »
The track of the low on the Euro is pretty much the exact same track that the fictional low on my fiction story I will work on next year takes.

Let's hope this doesn't end up being fiction like many in the past. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: December 2020
« Reply #64 on: November 25, 2020, 03:33:09 PM »
MRX is typing...

Quote
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

A system will move through during the Sunday through Wendesday
timeframe that may produce snow across portions of the area. The
highest confidence for snow is across the higher terrain areas.
Snow across valley locations is highly uncertain at this time but
it is at least worth mentioning and something we will be watching
closely.

All aboard the SNOW TRAIN!!! WOOT WOOT  ::snowman:: ::snowman::
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline Michael

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Re: December 2020
« Reply #65 on: November 25, 2020, 03:51:38 PM »
MRX is typing...

All aboard the SNOW TRAIN!!! WOOT WOOT  ::snowman:: ::snowman::
If MRX is mentioning it 5ish days out, you better go buy your milk, bread n eggs


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Offline Michael

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Re: December 2020
« Reply #66 on: November 25, 2020, 03:59:29 PM »
Lengthy discussion on Sunday-Wednesday from MRX:

Quote
  .LONG TERM......(Thursday night through Wednesday)...

Main focus of the long term is on the system for next week.

Thanksgiving night should be pleasant. The cold front will be well
to our east with drier air firmly in place. Overnight lows will fall
into the lower 40s for most places. Zonal flow in place on Friday as
we are caught in between the southern and northern jet. Friday
should be pleasant as well with plenty of sun and temps in the low
to mid 60s. Two systems approach our area, one to the north and one
to the south, Friday evening through Saturday morning. It looks like
the only affects we will see will be an increase in cloud cover as.
However, do have a very small area of slight chance POPs in place
right along the TN/GA state line but even these areas will most
likely stay dry. Saturday is our last nice day before a very
interesting system begins to move in later on Sunday. Saturday
should feature plenty of sun with mild temps in the upper 50s to low
60s.

Now for what you`ve been waiting for. The Sunday through Wednesday
system is very interesting as there is a lot going on. I hate to
disappoint but I will go ahead and say that this forecast is highly
uncertain due to the timing, evolution, and track. So I guess you
can say the certainty lies in the uncertainty, as least for now. The
general theme with this system looks like we will see rain on the
front-end due to strong southerly flow, colder air on the backside,
and then rain transitioning to snow across the higher terrain and
possibly some valley locations with whatever precip is leftover.

The GFS and ECMWF continue to handle this system quite differently.
most of the features are the same it`s just how the models handle
them. The main difference is that the ECMWF rapidly intensifies the
low as the northern and southern streams phase together. This rapid
intensification would promote colder air and higher QPF. The phasing
with the GFS isn`t quite as in sync as it is with the ECMWF. This
means you have less QPF and not as big a push of cold air. Both
models generally show the system exiting sometime on Wednesday.

For a few more details, a cutoff low will be moving across the
central Plains on Sunday. This feature will be picked up and ushered
along by a trough that is dropping down out of Canada. Rain looks to
spread into the region from south to north on Sunday. Cross mountain
flow ahead of this system at 850 mb could result in a low-end
mountain wave event Sunday night into Monday morning with 850 mb
winds around 40 kts. The bulk of the QPF occurs late Sunday through
Monday morning. A cold front will then pass through sometime on
Monday and cold air will quickly move into the region. Rain will
first change over to snow across the high terrain then across some
valley locations. All areas should be cold enough to see some snow
Monday night. On Tuesday, wrap around moisture moves into the region
on the back side of the low. Snow to start areawide Tuesday morning
but then transitioning back to rain by late morning/early afternoon
for most valley locations. The higher elevations, along with
portions of the northern plateau, northeast TN, and southwest VA
could remain all snow through the day on Tuesday. Any lingering
moisture changes back to all snow Tuesday night for all areas. This
system finally begins to lift out of the area by late Wednesday
afternoon. Event total rainfall ranges from 0.5 inches to 1.25
inches before the frontal passage on Monday.

So in closing, confidence is quite high that the higher terrain
areas will see snow during this event; how much is still to be
determined. The valley is much more uncertain as was mentioned
earlier. I will say that if recent runs of the ECMWF are correct
that there is a very good chance that most valley locations will see
some snow and perhaps even some light accumulations. However, there
are just too many uncertainties at this point to get any more
specific with the forecast. Bottom line, please stay tuned to the
forecast because this system has the potential to bring snow across
much of the area but the uncertainty is very high across the lower
elevations.


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Offline JayCee

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Re: December 2020
« Reply #67 on: November 25, 2020, 06:07:37 PM »
Quote
Snow to start areawide Tuesday morning
but then transitioning back to rain by late morning/early afternoon
for most valley locations.

I've seen MRX make this call many times before, but I've never seen snow change back to rain with this dynamic of a system.  The upper levels will certainly be no problem. Everything will fall as snow.  The Euro shows most of the central and northern valley at or below freezing all day Tuesday.  So, saying the snow will change back to rain makes zero sense.
« Last Edit: November 25, 2020, 06:09:11 PM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline dwagner88

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Re: December 2020
« Reply #68 on: November 25, 2020, 07:15:31 PM »
I've seen MRX make this call many times before, but I've never seen snow change back to rain with this dynamic of a system.  The upper levels will certainly be no problem. Everything will fall as snow.  The Euro shows most of the central and northern valley at or below freezing all day Tuesday.  So, saying the snow will change back to rain makes zero sense.
Same. The data says boundary layers will go slightly above freezing during the day. During active precip this nearly never happens as long as we have sufficient CAA. Looks like a decent early season event to me, even at KCHA.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: December 2020
« Reply #69 on: November 26, 2020, 06:25:16 AM »
CMC really bombs the second system for west Tennessee. The potential is there if a phase can occur at the right time.

Offline Curt

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December 2020
« Reply #70 on: November 26, 2020, 10:07:29 AM »
The euro and gfs are the perfect track for winter precip in west TN..except it
« Last Edit: November 26, 2020, 10:48:48 AM by Curt »

Offline Curt

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Re: December 2020
« Reply #71 on: November 26, 2020, 10:12:41 AM »
By the way the euro control 6z

Offline JayCee

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Re: December 2020
« Reply #72 on: November 26, 2020, 10:47:36 AM »
12Z GFS shows a quick hit of snow for eastern areas as the system departs Monday night and Tuesday with backside snow showers to follow.  Even so, the bulk of accumulating snow stays north of us.  Northern KY, eastern Indiana, and Ohio are the sweet spots per this run of the GFS.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline StormNine

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Re: December 2020
« Reply #73 on: November 26, 2020, 10:51:26 AM »
If we can keep lower-heights in general near the Aleutian Islands for a large part of this winter then we will continue to have our chances. 


Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: December 2020
« Reply #74 on: November 26, 2020, 11:05:33 AM »
Merry Thanksgiving from the CMC.

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