December 2020

[Mr. Golf]

This morning's forecast has the NAO/AO combo diving deeper into negative than yesterday's forecast, and far deeper than anything observed most of last winter as a whole.  This really could get interesting.  At the very least, it's gonna get cold.  And with the sub-tropical jet getting active with several deep troughs possible, someone in the state could really cash in the next two weeks.

If nothing else, it's nice to have some winter weather to track so early on this year.

When it's the ao/nao be cautious. I focus on the euro and or eps for teleconnections. Have a higher accuracy rating.

[Bruce]

Now when mr. Golf starts posting... you know something is brewing around here winter wise ...

[schneitzeit]

The AO being >6 was just unreal last winter. Oddly enough, when the AO was so strongly positive in February, I got a couple of minor winter events.

[JayCee]

Euro 500mb heights have a good look starting in December.  Strong ridging across northern areas in Canada with much lower heights across the southcentral and southeastern U.S., and along the East Coast.  A very good pattern for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. At this point, you can't ask for more in early December.  Well, I could ask for a lot more--like good results.  But, for now, it's at least got me watching every new model run and providing a good distraction from "other" things. 

Speaking of model runs, the 12Z GFS now has a nice hit of winter for the plateau eastward next Monday.

[schneitzeit]

The site is being a butt so I can't upload a screen capture of this, but the 12z GFS shows all of Maine is warmer than all of Florida at 12Z on December 1st. Something funky is brewing.

[JayCee]

Thanks to a very strong cyclone heading up east of the Apps early next week, most of KY and parts of northern TN may observe their first teens overnight Monday.

[Thundersnow]

The site is being a butt so I can't upload a screen capture of this, but the 12z GFS shows all of Maine is warmer than all of Florida at 12Z on December 1st. Something funky is brewing.

I did some housekeeping on forum attachments to free up some space. Unfortunately, the allocation for uploading attachments is only like 120 MB (there may be room to configure that upward- that's just what it currently is, and I don't want to presume upon the generosity of those hosting this site). A few hi-res images uploaded eat that up real fast. So, admins have to baby sit the current attachment threshold to keep available space. I think attachments can be auto-deleted after an amount of time. But, what I do is sort attachments by size, biggest to smallest and delete some of the bigger ones (more bang for the buck to free up space).

I got it down to something like 35MB free now. To all who use that feature here, try to be conscious on image file size when uploading attachments to make it go further. If something doesn't need to be real high resolution, consider saving in lower res so our attachment directory can go further.

[Bruce]

12z euro is very problematic for a big severe outbreak for parts southeast  144 hours out especially southeast of here

[Bruce]

Temps start to crash Monday behind the front ...

[schneitzeit]

It's worth mentioning the 10-day Euro has snow accumulation for the entire state of Tennessee next week. It has minor accumulations for Middle and East Tennessee from Nov. 30-Dec 1 and then a separate system comes in to cover West Tennessee at the end of the week.

[Beth]

My whole last half the of this year has been rough. Hub

[cgauxknox]

East TN will take the 00Z GFS, please and thank you.

I know, I know, it's the long-range GFS, but still, clown maps are better than nothing this time of year.

[JayCee]

My whole last half the of this year has been rough. Hub

[StormNine]

A few hours of snow falling would be nice. Even though I still expect a solidly warmer than average winter I do think we will still have a 2-4 week solid winter period sometime between Christmas and Early February similar to 1998-99 and 2017-18, so anything we can squeak in during the first 10 or so days of December would be a bonus in addition to that period.   

[Michael]

So we could possibly see 2 Snows in 3 days? Or zero. But, I believe some of us will see flakes flying between the 30th and 2nd.  6-7 days out though. In 2020 years, that