November 2020

[Coach B]

dry air taking place here now will just erode that away, as slp moves off to the northeast

The short range models are suggesting that when the upper trough back over Missouri swings through later this afternoon it will combine with some of the moisture fetch off of the lakes to produce the scattered snow showers. It works out that way fairly often. I don't know if its the moisture from the lakes combined with local topography, or what.

[EastTNWX]

Temp is 39 in Farragut with 37dp.  Hopefully the cooler initialization will work in the valley’s favor.  I just want some good flakes to fly.

[JayCee]

Down to 39 in the foothills, as well.  Seems to be colder than the forecast that states down to 37 by 5pm.  Will we recover some this afternoon, then cool again later?  Not sure, but one thing of note is our forecast high was 61 yesterday, and I was stuck in the lower 50's all day.  If we can remain in the upper 30's, and get some sleet or snow falling at cloud level, the column above will cool and snow could fall sooner.  All speculation at this point, but it's what we do. 
 

[gcbama]

I am at 35 degrees , it's the moisture that is the issue to me or lack thereof?

[BRUCE]

I am at 35 degrees , it's the moisture that is the issue to me or lack thereof?

if the temps was sitting around 40 or so... moisture would not be a problem  .  its just how we roll now. lol

[gcbama]

if the temps was sitting around 40 or so... moisture would not be a problem  .  its just how we roll now. lol

I know bruce lol....seems like when we have gulf potential, we rise to low 40's do to southerly flow and then 30's as it passes and squeeze a few flakes out on backside, been a while since we had a complete all snow event with cold air in place from the start

[gcbama]

some of that moisture in southern Illinois is moving almost due south instead of east southeast so some of it could actually get here in mid state

[Nashville_Wx]

Graupel/Light Snow starting to pick up in Bellevue/Nashville. With heavier returns streaming down from the North I believe areas are going to get a coating of snow esp in the higher elevations of Davidson and Williamson. Right now RH @ H7 are positioned just along the I-24 line. As time progresses this will move East but lower level moisture is still going to be transported in for some time from the North. 850's continue to drop and will likely squeeze out whatever we have left later as pockets of acceptable VV exists.

[schneitzeit]

Graupel/Light Snow starting to pick up in Bellevue/Nashville.

Ditto Cool Springs

[JayCee]

Beginning to think the "precipitation type" mode of the HRRR isn't handling this system well.  Latest run shows much more rain in Kentucky for a big part of the day where it's already cold enough for snow, and in some areas, is already occurring.  Further, it shows snow falling in TN at the same time showing rain in areas much further north in KY.  Seems a little off. 

Precipitation rates will probably play a part in this as well.  As rates increase, and more snow falls from the clouds, it cools the column and more snow reaches the ground.  When rates decrease, light rain or drizzle occurs.  Will be interesting to see how it plays out as upper level divergence increases, and more cooling occurs aloft.

Increased divergence associated with a 120 knot upper
level jet lifting across the northern Gulf coast will promote an
increase in coverage of snow showers late this morning and into
tonight. Ascent will become maximized late this afternoon and into
the overnight hours when cross sections depict increasing omega
in the DGZ.

[schneitzeit]

Pretty nice band of snow here in Cool Springs.

[Nashville_Wx]

Pretty nice band of snow here in Cool Springs.

With heavier returns streaming down from the North I believe areas are going to get a coating of snow esp in the higher elevations of Davidson and Williamson. Right now RH @ H7 are positioned just along the I-24 line. As time progresses this will move East but lower level moisture is still going to be transported in for some time from the North. 850's continue to drop and will likely squeeze out whatever we have left later as pockets of acceptable VV exists. Turning into more SN here now, starting to coat raised surfaces

[gcbama]

gosh it looks like west of 65 totally gets shafted from seeing snow in the air

[JayCee]

Precipitation expanding north of Nashville in KY, and dropping toward the mid-state. I'd say since it's already mixed or snowing, you'll stay that way as this drops in.  Enjoy!


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[Nashville_Wx]

gosh it looks like west of 65 totally gets shafted from seeing snow in the air

Not really shafted when you were never going to get much before. I am West of 65 its snowing here. You are a little far south and West. Returns could drift into that area and you seee some flakes....