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Author Topic: November 2020  (Read 12916 times)

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Offline Coach B

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Re: November 2020
« Reply #180 on: November 30, 2020, 08:20:59 AM »
dry air taking place here now will just erode that away, as slp moves off to the northeast

The short range models are suggesting that when the upper trough back over Missouri swings through later this afternoon it will combine with some of the moisture fetch off of the lakes to produce the scattered snow showers. It works out that way fairly often. I don't know if its the moisture from the lakes combined with local topography, or what.

Offline EastTNWX

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Re: November 2020
« Reply #181 on: November 30, 2020, 08:50:26 AM »
Temp is 39 in Farragut with 37dp.  Hopefully the cooler initialization will work in the valley’s favor.  I just want some good flakes to fly.

Offline JayCee

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Re: November 2020
« Reply #182 on: November 30, 2020, 09:14:15 AM »
Down to 39 in the foothills, as well.  Seems to be colder than the forecast that states down to 37 by 5pm.  Will we recover some this afternoon, then cool again later?  Not sure, but one thing of note is our forecast high was 61 yesterday, and I was stuck in the lower 50's all day.  If we can remain in the upper 30's, and get some sleet or snow falling at cloud level, the column above will cool and snow could fall sooner.  All speculation at this point, but it's what we do. 
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Offline gcbama

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Re: November 2020
« Reply #183 on: November 30, 2020, 09:22:50 AM »
I am at 35 degrees , it's the moisture that is the issue to me or lack thereof?

Offline BRUCE

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Re: November 2020
« Reply #184 on: November 30, 2020, 09:44:03 AM »
I am at 35 degrees , it's the moisture that is the issue to me or lack thereof?
if the temps was sitting around 40 or so... moisture would not be a problem  >:D.  its just how we roll now. lol
Come on severe wx season...

Offline gcbama

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Re: November 2020
« Reply #185 on: November 30, 2020, 10:20:58 AM »
if the temps was sitting around 40 or so... moisture would not be a problem  >:D.  its just how we roll now. lol

I know bruce lol....seems like when we have gulf potential, we rise to low 40's do to southerly flow and then 30's as it passes and squeeze a few flakes out on backside, been a while since we had a complete all snow event with cold air in place from the start

Offline gcbama

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Re: November 2020
« Reply #186 on: November 30, 2020, 10:22:57 AM »
some of that moisture in southern Illinois is moving almost due south instead of east southeast so some of it could actually get here in mid state

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: November 2020
« Reply #187 on: November 30, 2020, 10:36:48 AM »
Graupel/Light Snow starting to pick up in Bellevue/Nashville. With heavier returns streaming down from the North I believe areas are going to get a coating of snow esp in the higher elevations of Davidson and Williamson. Right now RH @ H7 are positioned just along the I-24 line. As time progresses this will move East but lower level moisture is still going to be transported in for some time from the North. 850's continue to drop and will likely squeeze out whatever we have left later as pockets of acceptable VV exists.
« Last Edit: November 30, 2020, 10:48:08 AM by Nashville_Wx »


Offline schneitzeit

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Re: November 2020
« Reply #188 on: November 30, 2020, 10:41:15 AM »
Graupel/Light Snow starting to pick up in Bellevue/Nashville.

Ditto Cool Springs
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April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
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Offline JayCee

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Re: November 2020
« Reply #189 on: November 30, 2020, 10:44:44 AM »
Beginning to think the "precipitation type" mode of the HRRR isn't handling this system well.  Latest run shows much more rain in Kentucky for a big part of the day where it's already cold enough for snow, and in some areas, is already occurring.  Further, it shows snow falling in TN at the same time showing rain in areas much further north in KY.  Seems a little off. 

Precipitation rates will probably play a part in this as well.  As rates increase, and more snow falls from the clouds, it cools the column and more snow reaches the ground.  When rates decrease, light rain or drizzle occurs.  Will be interesting to see how it plays out as upper level divergence increases, and more cooling occurs aloft.

Quote
Increased divergence associated with a 120 knot upper
level jet lifting across the northern Gulf coast will promote an
increase in coverage of snow showers late this morning and into
tonight. Ascent will become maximized late this afternoon and into
the overnight hours
when cross sections depict increasing omega
in the DGZ.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline schneitzeit

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Re: November 2020
« Reply #190 on: November 30, 2020, 10:48:29 AM »
Pretty nice band of snow here in Cool Springs.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
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Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: November 2020
« Reply #191 on: November 30, 2020, 10:51:29 AM »
Pretty nice band of snow here in Cool Springs.
With heavier returns streaming down from the North I believe areas are going to get a coating of snow esp in the higher elevations of Davidson and Williamson. Right now RH @ H7 are positioned just along the I-24 line. As time progresses this will move East but lower level moisture is still going to be transported in for some time from the North. 850's continue to drop and will likely squeeze out whatever we have left later as pockets of acceptable VV exists. Turning into more SN here now, starting to coat raised surfaces


Offline gcbama

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Re: November 2020
« Reply #192 on: November 30, 2020, 10:57:35 AM »
gosh it looks like west of 65 totally gets shafted from seeing snow in the air :(

Offline JayCee

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Re: November 2020
« Reply #193 on: November 30, 2020, 11:01:21 AM »
Precipitation expanding north of Nashville in KY, and dropping toward the mid-state. I'd say since it's already mixed or snowing, you'll stay that way as this drops in.  Enjoy!


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"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: November 2020
« Reply #194 on: November 30, 2020, 11:08:54 AM »
gosh it looks like west of 65 totally gets shafted from seeing snow in the air :(

Not really shafted when you were never going to get much before. I am West of 65 its snowing here. You are a little far south and West. Returns could drift into that area and you seee some flakes....
« Last Edit: November 30, 2020, 11:11:58 AM by Nashville_Wx »


 

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