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Author Topic: Hurricane Zeta  (Read 1836 times)

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Offline TNHunter

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Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #15 on: October 28, 2020, 09:08:52 AM »
I've been reading concerns about disaster fatigue for people this year. When you tell people the world is ending often enough, and yet they keep surviving, eventually they give up paying attention to the warnings, whether weather or other crises. We can only hope it doesn't create serious problems in the coming months.

Yep agreed.  Bad thing about weather is usually the disaster situations are way over-blown and people rightfully get tired of hearing about it.  Hard line to walk.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #16 on: October 28, 2020, 10:29:34 AM »
The other side of my fence is now under a tropical storm warning. MRX has a high wind watch for us.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25

Offline JayCee

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Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #17 on: October 28, 2020, 11:31:22 AM »
Late morning update from MRX:

Quote
Issued a high wind watch for the entire Smoky Mountain chain from
Johnson to Polk counties, as well as Cherokee and Clay Counties,
NC from 06 to 16Z Thurs. Also issued a wind advisory along the AL
and GA border from Marion County to lower elevations of Polk
County. As Zeta moves quickly NE tonight and Thurs morning, it
will be a tropical depression with its low-level circulation
passing across GA, SC, and into NC. This is where most of its wind
core will go, but a southeasterly low-level jet ahead of the
circulation will bring a short window of wind potential as it
clips the S and SE parts of our CWA,
mainly between 09 and 15Z,
before winds abruptly veer to WSW behind the departing
circulation. The southeasterly jet will be perpendicular to the
mountains leading to some downsloping near the peaks and
foothills, so the highest winds will be in those areas except for
also across Cherokee/Clay closer to the circluation and associated
wind core. Highest gusts remain low confidence though since there
is a lack of an inversion to create strong ducting that are
typical in standard mountain waves. Regarding the lower
elevations, most gusts that mix down will be in the 25-35 mph
range, but there is some potential for gusts over 40 mph in
heavier rain bands, or if the core of the circulation tracks
slightly farther NW.

They are thinking the wind core associated with Zeta will track just east of the Apps after clipping the southern valley.  But I've noticed many of the recent hurricanes haven't exactly tracked as expected after landfall.  That's why many in western TN have missed the heaviest rains that were forecast.  IF it tracks as expected, the southern valley, mountains and foothills would see the worst of the winds.  But, as MRX noted, if it tracks just slightly northwest, the Great Valley would fall within what's left of Zeta's core.  That would change the current wind forecast significantly.

Many trees have already lost their leaves here, or will quickly lose them once the wind starts (although some are still green).  That might help reduce damage, but some trees could be uprooted once the soils saturate and become soft.  Let's hope if there is any shift in track, it will be further east.   ::fingerscrossed::
« Last Edit: October 28, 2020, 11:33:19 AM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #18 on: October 28, 2020, 11:53:20 AM »
Many trees have already lost their leaves here, or will quickly lose them once the wind starts (although some are still green).  That might help reduce damage, but some trees could be uprooted once the soils saturate and become soft.  Let's hope if there is any shift in track, it will be further east.   ::fingerscrossed::
::fingerscrossed:: ::fingerscrossed:: ::fingerscrossed::
This has turned into one of those days where I got off of one call of terrible news for a friend to find out another (who should thankfully be OK soon) is in the ER. Normally I enjoy watching storm tracks but today I'm just hoping this one swings east of us without causing more chaos.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #19 on: October 28, 2020, 01:03:05 PM »
In news that will surpise nobody in 2020, Zeta is strengthening as it interacts with the trough on approach to LA. Up to 100 mph.
The 12Z Euro gust product has the entire Atlanta metro with gusts over 80 mph tonight.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2020, 01:16:34 PM by dwagner88 »
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #20 on: October 28, 2020, 01:19:59 PM »
We had a hurricane and a major ice storm about 600 miles apart. Normal 2020.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #21 on: October 28, 2020, 01:34:35 PM »
We had a hurricane and a major ice storm about 600 miles apart. Normal 2020.
I've got a pretty good vocabulary but all the words that can begin to describe that will get me banned from the forum. Schneitzeit this is a good place for you to jump in with the right German or Russian for us.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #22 on: October 28, 2020, 01:37:56 PM »
...and the Tropical Storm warning is now well north of Asheville, NC for a Gulf Coast hurricane. I really never thought I'd see that warning in that part of the world unless the storm came into the Atlantic coast.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #23 on: October 28, 2020, 01:46:19 PM »
Interesting that MRX has avoided use of the tropical storm warning for the mountain counties. Adjacent offices are using it. I'm not sure that MRX has ever issued a tropical product though.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25

Offline JayCee

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Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #24 on: October 28, 2020, 02:11:09 PM »
12Z hi-res NAM has continued the trend of keeping the highest wind gust potential just east of the crest of the Apps after clipping far southeast TN near Chattanooga and Copperhill.  Upstate SC and western NC gets hit hard.  Trying to talk my sister through the best time to head there tomorrow (Copperhill) from Irmo, SC for a funeral.  It's not an easy task.  Between the flash flooding and high winds, going through the mountains at any time before noon looks bad.  Hoping she decides to stay home for safety's sake.

17Z HRRR stops short of the NAM, but it seems to be projecting a similar solution.  Strong Zeta core winds clipping far southeast TN, then heading just east of the mountains.  Later runs will show more detail. 

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #25 on: October 28, 2020, 02:45:53 PM »
Interesting that MRX has avoided use of the tropical storm warning for the mountain counties. Adjacent offices are using it. I'm not sure that MRX has ever issued a tropical product though.
Nevermind. Polk and Monroe have been upgraded to a TS warning. Very rare. Maybe even unprecedented.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2020, 02:50:13 PM by dwagner88 »
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25

Offline JayCee

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Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #26 on: October 28, 2020, 03:08:15 PM »
18z run of the HRRR shows areas from Chattanooga to Knoxville eastward getting in on some tropical storm force winds for a brief time as the core rides along or just west of the Apps (and a little west of the NAM).  It all depends where the center ends up traveling, I guess.  Along or just east of the Apps, keeps the strong winds out of the central valley of east TN (except for south).  The center traveling just west of the mountains means people in the central valley from Knoxville east better put their garbage cans in the garage, or kiss them goodbye.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2020, 03:12:46 PM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline JayCee

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Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #27 on: October 28, 2020, 03:10:10 PM »
Live webcam in New Orleans. 

https://youtu.be/vC8zvG46eDk

Dark skies--wind and rain definitely increasing in the last hour. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline JayCee

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Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #28 on: October 28, 2020, 03:20:02 PM »
Per MRX:

Quote
FXUS64 KMRX 281915
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
315 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)...

Key Messages:

1. Rain this evening will become heavy from south to north tonight
through Thursday morning as the remnants of Zeta pass through the
area.

2. Rainfall totals have increased with much of the central and
southern valley, plateau, and SW NC seeing 3 to 4 inches and locally
higher amounts, with 2 to 3 inches farther north.

3. Steady rain will quickly end after Noon Thursday with scattered
light showers for the afternoon.

4. Strong winds in the far southern plateau, SE Tennessee, SW North
Carolina, and mountains of E Tennessee late tonight into Thursday
morning with gusts up to 60 mph in the peaks and foothills of the
mountains and up to 40 mph in lower elevations.

Quote
The deepest surge of tropical moisture will arrive as the
circulation approaches tonight with PWATs late tonight and early
Thurs rising over 2 inches which is above the daily maximum
climatological value. Additionally, the deep tropical airmass will
bring freezing levels up around 16-17 thousand feet with a very deep
warm cloud layer to support warm rain processes. This will all
support very efficient rainfall rates with 1-2 inch per hour rates
not out of the question. The heaviest banding will be just NW of the
track of the low-level circulation. HREF Ensemble Probability
Matched Mean suggests swaths of 3 to 5 inch storm totals from the
central and S Valley through the S Plateau and SW NC with 2 to 3
inches across the rest of the CWA.

Quote
Wind

A low-level southeasterly jet max of 50+ kts will punch across the
southern and southeastern CWA between 09 and 15Z Thurs on the right
front quadrant of Zeta`s circulation, with an additional core of
wind around the center. This will lead to downslope high winds in
the E TN mountains with gusts around 50 kts in the peaks and
foothills. A weak inversion will minimize ducting, so wind gusts
will be marginal for high wind criteria. Nevertheless, upgraded to
High Wind Warning for the mountain zones from Johnson to Blount
counties with a rare Tropical Storm Warning for the mountain zones
of Monroe, and all of Polk, Cherokee, and Clay Counties. This was
after close collaboration with neighboring and regional offices and
NHC. The highest winds will be in the peaks and foothills of the
Smokies, especially from Sevier County and points south, but rain
bands around the circulation will pull some 30 to 40 kt gusts down
into lower elevations, including farther west into the rest of the
far SE TN and the S Plateau counties. Wind advisory remains in
effect for these areas. Any deviation in the track of the
circulation will cause slightly lower or higher gusts, but
regardless, the very saturated soil will easily lead to downed
trees.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline gcbama

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Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #29 on: October 28, 2020, 03:46:29 PM »
shocked this thing is strengthening to almost a possible cat 3 with water temperatures the way they are

 

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