* User

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Advertisement


Author Topic: Hurricane Zeta  (Read 1777 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,257
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 377
Hurricane Zeta
« on: October 26, 2020, 02:37:51 PM »
12z Euro going to give New Orleans fits. Now has it moving on the the SE La coast with 130 mph gusts. It tracks just over the western part of Ponchartrain and with 110 mph gusts in NOLA. If this is the scenario, this will be problematic.

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,257
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 377
Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2020, 02:54:54 PM »
It’s worth noting the euro is now by far the strongest model run. Will have to see if it holds. Being 2020, wouldn’t surprise me if it wasn’t on the stronger side.

Offline dwagner88

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,553
  • Location: Chattanooga (East Brainerd) TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 145
Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2020, 03:33:43 PM »
This is going to rack up some pretty big rain totals somewhere in the state. There will likely be interaction with the approaching front and the additional forcing is really going to wring this thing out.  I'm thinking 3-5" widespread from the plateau eastwards with Zeta. Isolated higher.

I think around 10" qpf has come from tropical systems IMBY so far this year. Without them we would be entering a drought right on the tail end of the wettest 12 month period ever recorded. (77" from 10/1/2019 to 9/30/2020)
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25”

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,257
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 377
Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2020, 03:35:14 PM »
This is going to rack up some pretty big rain totals somewhere in the state. There will likely be interaction with the approaching front and the additional forcing is really going to wring this thing out.  I'm thinking 3-5" widespread from the plateau eastwards with Zeta. Isolated higher.

I think around 10" qpf has come from tropical systems IMBY so far this year. Without them we would be entering a drought right on the tail end of the wettest 12 month period ever recorded.
Yep. Anything hitting Louisiana is probably going to affect the entire state at some point. I need to go back and look at each one and the QPF they’ve brought. It’s amazing.

Looking at October, we would have had no rain at all if it weren’t for Beta and now to come Zeta (or interaction with).
« Last Edit: October 26, 2020, 03:47:51 PM by Curt »

Offline Dyersburg Weather

  • Global Moderator
  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,468
  • Location: North of 40
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 618
Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2020, 03:52:01 PM »
Yep. Anything hitting Louisiana is probably going to affect the entire state at some point. I need to go back and look at each one and the QPF they’ve brought. It’s amazing.

Looking at October, we would have had no rain at all if it weren’t for Beta and now to come Zeta (or interaction with).
The crazy thing is my location has been in the bullseye all year with the tropical systems and we have not received 1.5 inches total. I know some places have but we have missed it for the most part.

Offline TNHunter

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 440
  • Location:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2020, 04:51:24 PM »
The crazy thing is my location has been in the bullseye all year with the tropical systems and we have not received 1.5 inches total. I know some places have but we have missed it for the most part.

I was thinking the exact same thing. I bet we have been forecasted to get 10-12 inches from these systems and I have recorded less than 1 inch from them total. Lol crazy

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,161
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1505
Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2020, 07:56:58 AM »
Widespread 2-4" of rain coming statewide thanks to Zeta combining with a strong autumn front coming in.  That will probably bring most of the leaves down, save many of the oaks that still have some green leaves.  I plan to enjoy the dry, warm 70's today. 

"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Nash_LSU

  • Shower
  • **
  • Posts: 63
  • Location: Nashville Zooish
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2020, 09:51:55 AM »
And not-so-shocking news in the third world that we call New Orleans, but one of their four pump turbines is down. Assuming everything is up and running, the system can handle one inch of rainfall per hour for the first hour and a half inch every hour after that. Less so now that the system is running on less power. Every time I get a little nostalgic for my time spent living there, it's things like this that bring me back to reality and why we moved.

Offline dwagner88

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,553
  • Location: Chattanooga (East Brainerd) TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 145
Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2020, 12:16:31 PM »
The Euro has an Opal like damaging wind event in Northern Georgia between Chattanooga and Atlanta. Several hours of 70-90 mph gusts. I know the gust product is often overdone, but late season tropical systems are notorious for inland wind due to rapid forward motion. Looks like Chattanooga itself escapes with max gusts under 50 mph, but it's too close for comfort. Would be a bad situation in Atlanta.

Just to add: Go see fall leaves now. Like today. This storm is going to strip them all away from the plateau eastwards.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2020, 12:24:26 PM by dwagner88 »
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25”

Offline Eric

  • IF THE NAM VERIFIES
  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 14,782
  • Location: MTSU by day, Morrison by night
  • Call sign: KJ4IXE
    • My Blog...
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 926
Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2020, 05:32:37 PM »
Quote
This is one of the most unusual weather events I've seen in #Tennessee - a former tropical storm re-intensifying due to interaction with a baroclinic zone, displaying an apparent eye on radar and producing hurricane eyewall-like wind damage to Cat 1 intensity
(h/t @Shamnadoes)

Referencing Olga and it's impact on Clarksville/NW TN a year ago.

Quote
Might see this again with Zeta. Fast forward motion and ET-transition over land with a 90 knot 850 LLJ and 80 knots at 900. If there’s any deep convection on the east side the winds will catch a lot of people by surprise over Alabama this time. (Like we need it).
(h/t @BackinBlack_wx)

Seems legit.   ::coffee::

The Euro has an Opal like damaging wind event in Northern Georgia between Chattanooga and Atlanta. Several hours of 70-90 mph gusts. I know the gust product is often overdone, but late season tropical systems are notorious for inland wind due to rapid forward motion. Looks like Chattanooga itself escapes with max gusts under 50 mph, but it's too close for comfort. Would be a bad situation in Atlanta.

Just to add: Go see fall leaves now. Like today. This storm is going to strip them all away from the plateau eastwards.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2020, 05:34:42 PM by Eric »
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,161
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1505
Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2020, 06:44:11 PM »
NHC has now shifted Zeta's track slightly northwest into east TN.  The mountains will definitely see some rough winds, but the valley won't be immune if the track is directly over us. 

"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline dwagner88

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,553
  • Location: Chattanooga (East Brainerd) TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 145
Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2020, 06:52:20 PM »
NHC has now shifted Zeta's track slightly northwest into east TN.  The mountains will definitely see some rough winds, but the valley won't be immune if the track is directly over us.
Post tropical transition happens almost overhead also. Getting a little concerned here. Could be a serious wind threat when it starts interacting with the front.

The other side of my backyard fence is under a Tropical Storm watch. My lot is on the GA line. FFC has issued watches for their northern counties.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2020, 07:27:21 PM by dwagner88 »
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25”

Offline StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,770
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 175
Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2020, 04:02:10 AM »
Zeta looks to be in a solid strengthening phase.  Now forecast to make landfall as a CAT 2 near Houma.

The impacts to SE LA may be a bit greater than expected. 

Offline Nash_LSU

  • Shower
  • **
  • Posts: 63
  • Location: Nashville Zooish
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #13 on: October 28, 2020, 07:09:38 AM »
The impacts to SE LA may be a bit greater than expected.

I'm reading the Louisiana forums and a lot of chatter about how it's business as usual today in SELA. Schools open. Businesses open. Classic boy who cried wolf scenario playing out.

Offline cgauxknox

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 993
  • Location: Knoxville
  • KM4UMK
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 569
Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #14 on: October 28, 2020, 07:11:46 AM »
I'm reading the Louisiana forums and a lot of chatter about how it's business as usual today in SELA. Schools open. Businesses open. Classic boy who cried wolf scenario playing out.
I've been reading concerns about disaster fatigue for people this year. When you tell people the world is ending often enough, and yet they keep surviving, eventually they give up paying attention to the warnings, whether weather or other crises. We can only hope it doesn't create serious problems in the coming months.

 

* Recent Posts

December 2020
by StormNine
[Yesterday at 08:11:02 PM]
November 2020
by dwagner88
[Yesterday at 01:27:05 PM]
Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
by JayCee
[November 23, 2020, 04:21:47 PM]
2020 Tropical Season Outlook
by JayCee
[November 21, 2020, 05:24:16 PM]
New Madrid Seismic Zone Activity
by bugalou
[November 21, 2020, 03:27:27 PM]

Advertisement