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Author Topic: Slowpoke Sally  (Read 1371 times)

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Offline StormNine

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Slowpoke Sally
« on: September 12, 2020, 01:40:00 PM »
Tropical Sally formed off the SW coast of Florida and is now expected to make landfall somewhere on the LA/MS coast later this week.  It's slow-motion means that both surge and heavy rainfall are legit threats.   

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Slowpoke Sally
« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2020, 05:02:19 PM »
Ughh! I like it like that
She working that back, I don't know how to act
Slow motion for me, slow motion for me
Slow motion for me, move in slow motion for me


Offline StormNine

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Re: Slowpoke Sally
« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2020, 08:11:44 PM »
Conditions look to be quite favorable for Sally between now and her landfall.  The tropical wave in the western half of the GOM is actually helping in flinging more moist air into the eastern GOM.   

A rapid intensification period like her older sister Laura cannot be discounted at this point in time.   

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Slowpoke Sally
« Reply #3 on: September 13, 2020, 05:37:15 AM »
The track right now is showing Sally as a TD just south of Chattanooga by Friday morning. Will this be another one that we see eventually come off the east coast and redevelop into a tropical or subtropical system?

Offline StormNine

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Re: Slowpoke Sally
« Reply #4 on: September 13, 2020, 06:56:59 AM »
The only slightly good news is that she is trending just a little bit faster.  Still some areas still look to have tropical storm conditions for 36 to 48 hours and the potential is there for a CAT 2 or even CAT 3 at landfall which is not good for SE LA or the MS gulf coast. 


Offline WXHD

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Re: Slowpoke Sally
« Reply #5 on: September 13, 2020, 07:15:24 AM »
Keeping a sharp eye on this one. We’re headed to Dauphin island,AL for fall break. Last summer we were run off the island by a hurricane. This summer the house we had reserved was damaged by a TS the week before our arrival. Waiting to see what this one brings. I do not like 2020. 
Earth transforms sunlight's visible light energy into infrared light energy, which leaves Earth slowly because it is absorbed by greenhouse gases. When people produce greenhouse gases, energy leaves Earth even more slowly – raising Earth's temperature. http://www.howglobalwarmingworks.org/

Offline StormNine

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Re: Slowpoke Sally
« Reply #6 on: September 13, 2020, 08:35:32 AM »
The fact that Sally is moving a little bit faster than expected plus it is taking a little bit longer to get organized are the saving graces. 


Offline gcbama

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Re: Slowpoke Sally
« Reply #7 on: September 13, 2020, 01:39:21 PM »
The only slightly good news is that she is trending just a little bit faster.  Still some areas still look to have tropical storm conditions for 36 to 48 hours and the potential is there for a CAT 2 or even CAT 3 at landfall which is not good for SE LA or the MS gulf coast.

Are you thinking another rapid strengthening storm is coming....it just doesn't look that organized yet to me....but then again it still has about 30-36 hours to work with and lots of warm water

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Slowpoke Sally
« Reply #8 on: September 13, 2020, 01:43:32 PM »
The Euro says that Sally will eliminate my summer rainfall deficit. 8.4” of rain here. GFS is just under half that much. The track is very similar to Tropical Storm Lee which set a new 24 hr rainfall record of 10.4” here in 2011.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25”

Offline StormNine

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Re: Slowpoke Sally
« Reply #9 on: September 13, 2020, 02:09:31 PM »
Are you thinking another rapid strengthening storm is coming....it just doesn't look that organized yet to me....but then again it still has about 30-36 hours to work with and lots of warm water

As of now it does look like these is some moderate shear around.  If that decreases then there could be a rapid strengthening period, she is a smaller storm so that means she can pick up strength faster. Since she is trending a bit faster as well as her organization issues I think the risk of anything higher than a borderline CAT 1/CAT 2 storm has gone down quite a bit since last night.  If she continues to trend faster than perhaps the storm surge threat may not be quite as bad, but still very significant.  Probably along the lines of Hurricane Isaac back in 2012. 

Offline StormNine

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Re: Slowpoke Sally
« Reply #10 on: September 13, 2020, 03:32:53 PM »
Some models and now the NHC is showing a widespread 2-5 inches or rain from a cold front interacting with Sally's moisture across much of Middle and Eastern TN. With the events of today that is not good news.   

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Slowpoke Sally
« Reply #11 on: September 14, 2020, 09:44:26 AM »
It looks to me like Sally's inland track has shifted south since yesterday. Any ideas about what that means for the potential TN impacts?

Offline Curt

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Re: Slowpoke Sally
« Reply #12 on: September 14, 2020, 10:05:38 AM »
It looks to me like Sally's inland track has shifted south since yesterday. Any ideas about what that means for the potential TN impacts?

If the euro is correct, maybe extreme SE Tennessee will get some rain directly from the hurricane, but no one else. Its much drier state wide.

Offline Eric

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Re: Slowpoke Sally
« Reply #13 on: September 14, 2020, 10:29:57 AM »
The further east Sally slides, the chances of Tennessee seeing measurable impacts decreases.  Once she makes landfall - wherever that may be - she's taking a hard right and moving on out.
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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Slowpoke Sally
« Reply #14 on: September 14, 2020, 10:43:28 AM »
The further east Sally slides, the chances of Tennessee seeing measurable impacts decreases.  Once she makes landfall - wherever that may be - she's taking a hard right and moving on out.

Nolensville will appreciate that.

 

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