Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021

[JayCee]

The one aspect of this winter I will remember is--it was the most snow I've witnessed on Christmas morning.  I've seen snow on Christmas, but not more than 2-3". I'm not a spring chicken, and I've been around the weather block many times, and I've lived in places much further north of east TN.  Yet, I've never seen a Christmas as white as the end of 2020.   Considering the difficult times I've (and all of us) had last year, it was a nice gift to end the year.  I'm equally glad my neighbors west of here also had some good winter fun before this one came to a close. Of course, that doesn't mean we're done yet.  Winter has a way of showing up when least expected, even this far south. 

[mempho]

Looks like this is just a pattern reload week per the Euro.  This is the pattern we want for March excitement!

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[gcbama]

The one aspect of this winter I will remember is--it was the most snow I've witnessed on Christmas morning.  I've seen snow on Christmas, but not more than 2-3". I'm not a spring chicken, and I've been around the weather block many times, and I've lived in places much further north of east TN.  Yet, I've never seen a Christmas as white as the end of 2020.   Considering the difficult times I've (and all of us) had last year, it was a nice gift to end the year.  I'm equally glad my neighbors west of here also had some good winter fun before this one came to a close. Of course, that doesn't mean we're done yet.  Winter has a way of showing up when least expected, even this far south.

I would take a 2 inch snow on Christmas morning over 4-6 inches on any other day.
Something magical about a true white christmas

[Coach B]

Looks like this is just a pattern reload week per the Euro.  This is the pattern we want for March excitement!

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I've taken a little break from model watching. However, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised with a reload to the cold pattern the second or third week of March. A bowling ball upper low would not be a surprise either. Still a solid three to four weeks for a winter threat.

[gcbama]

I've taken a little break from model watching. However, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised with a reload to the cold pattern the second or third week of March. A bowling ball upper low would not be a surprise either. Still a solid three to four weeks for a winter threat.

Yep, nothing currently in the next week winter-wise so it is a nice little break from model watching madness

[Clarksville Snowman]

Yes it was nice today, it is good to get a little break from model watching. Last week was fun but wore me down, and lost a lot of sleep but it was fun. Getting rested up too see if march will bring us another round of winter weather. No matter what, it has for sure been a more entertaining winter than the last 2.

[schneitzeit]

Yes it was nice today, it is good to get a little break from model watching. Last week was fun but wore me down, and lost a lot of sleep but it was fun. Getting rested up too see if march will bring us another round of winter weather. No matter what, it has for sure been a more entertaining winter than the last 2.

I like the way you think, Snowman. I'll take a snowstorm any time of the year. Even if it's in April. Sue me!

[Flash]

Yes it was nice today, it is good to get a little break from model watching. Last week was fun but wore me down, and lost a lot of sleep but it was fun. Getting rested up too see if march will bring us another round of winter weather. No matter what, it has for sure been a more entertaining winter than the last 2.

You and me both Snowman. Gotta get our zzz's in before severe weather peak season.

[Curt]

So looking at the winter storm data I collected earlier...since 1950 out of the 96- now 99 winter storms across the state, 12 have occurred in March.

- 4/12 in a La Nina
- 3/12 in an El Nino
- 5/12 in neutral ENSO

Of the La Nina ones (only 4):
- PNA: 2 positive/2 negative
- EPO: 3 positive/ 1 negative
- AO: 2 positive/2 negative
- NAO: 2 positive/2 negative
- The big March 1968 storm was a weak La Nina after a PV Split in January with a positive PNA, EPO, AO, and NAO (MJO undetermined)
- March 2008 near blizzard conditions occurred in a moderate La Nina with positive PNA, EPO, AO, and NAO and a MJO in phase 1
-March 1975 was a weak Nina and weakly negative PNA, EPO, AO, and NAO with MJO in Phase 3
- March 1971 was a moderate Nina with a negative PNA, positive EPO, strongly negative AO, and negative NAO, and MJO undetermined
- 36/99 winter storms from 1950 occurred with a La Nina. So getting 4/36 to occur in March looks rare but not impossible. The usual teleconnections don't look to be near as solid of a predictor as they do in Dec-Feb.

In late January when looking at teleconnections with the winter storms studied, I think I mentioned the best analog was Jan 31, 1985. Looking in more detail, it was almost identical for the period we just went through.