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Author Topic: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021  (Read 48629 times)

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Offline Bruce

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #525 on: January 18, 2021, 03:01:19 PM »
Usually by mid Feb I am ready for spring.  Just hope it
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #526 on: January 18, 2021, 03:14:20 PM »
Usually by mid Feb I am ready for spring.  Just hope it
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #527 on: January 18, 2021, 08:44:35 PM »
Yeah, a little over 25 days into Winter and you guys are ready for Spring? This is why it does not snow here you traitors  ::rofl:: ::snowman:: Everyone wants its their way, not natures way. Winter for me starts in early November through late May, June if its a long season. Get back on the horse, we still have 60 days left. The models are horrible....Well then why do you believe them into the extended. Until someone can predict the future , I am not sure how much I would get pissed models past day 10. As you know we have seen major changes within day 5 all the way to day 2 and 3. Point being, the snowfall we usually get is never modeled like the storms we track in the extended range. Who know wtf is going to happen here is really what I am trying to say. All i know is , ill take it whenever I can get it. Morel season starts once the snow melts an soil temps raise. I am down for the spring and summer,  just let me have my winter :P
« Last Edit: January 18, 2021, 08:48:08 PM by Nashville_Wx »


Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #528 on: January 18, 2021, 08:49:34 PM »
Speaking of extended, I have to go to Indianapolis on the 24-28th. 12Z Euro really paints some strong through that area. Looking like a good chance to see a decent snowfall without having to get high.


Offline Curt

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #529 on: January 19, 2021, 09:05:28 AM »
La Ni

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Offline snowdog

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #531 on: January 20, 2021, 08:45:52 PM »
Interesting look at February just going by ENSO analogs. Not good.

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1351527234373361665

Offline TNHunter

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #532 on: January 21, 2021, 08:18:34 AM »
About time to start our spring thread.  I am ready, even with over a week of duck season left.  Sunny and 70 degrees sounds awesome right about now.  I would take a repeat of last spring since we actually had one, minus the severe outbreak around Nashville.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #533 on: January 22, 2021, 02:50:54 PM »
Any chance the MJO could head into the phases we like? It's finally moving out of the weak zone and into phase 6. Would be nice if we could catch 8, 1 and 2.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline Curt

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Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #534 on: January 22, 2021, 04:43:17 PM »
Any chance the MJO could head into the phases we like? It's finally moving out of the weak zone and into phase 6. Would be nice if we could catch 8, 1 and 2.
Euro has the MJO exclusively in 7 maybe on its way to 8 by mid to late February. Phase 7 in February is cold. The EPS has a negative WPO - and it
« Last Edit: January 22, 2021, 04:55:06 PM by Curt »

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #535 on: January 22, 2021, 05:16:57 PM »
The cold in the center of country is what we need. There are a lot of ways for us to get snow but on this end of the state we need to be on the east side of the trough. Some usually get screwed with that setup.

Offline Flash

Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #536 on: January 22, 2021, 05:40:41 PM »
Euro has the MJO exclusively in 7 maybe on its way to 8 by mid to late February. Phase 7 in February is cold. The EPS has a negative WPO - and it
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #537 on: January 22, 2021, 07:12:13 PM »
One positive about the upcoming long-range pattern is that we should become more stormy and therefore see more rain.  Areas west of I-65 are starting to need some rainfall.

As far as the general pattern I don't really like to bet against that late Feb/Early March, La-Nina climo it isn't really our friend and especially if the EPO isn't negative. The best case for the western half of TN and KY will be a 2008 situation where some of that cold air seeps in and times well with a March snow system, but 2012 can also happen if we aren't careful as well.   

Offline Bruce

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #538 on: January 23, 2021, 08:24:41 AM »
One positive about the upcoming long-range pattern is that we should become more stormy and therefore see more rain.  Areas west of I-65 are starting to need some rainfall.

As far as the general pattern I don't really like to bet against that late Feb/Early March, La-Nina climo it isn't really our friend and especially if the EPO isn't negative. The best case for the western half of TN and KY will be a 2008 situation where some of that cold air seeps in and times well with a March snow system, but 2012 can also happen if we aren't careful as well.   
i would love to have another February 08 redo again. What a fun chase night that was .
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Bruce

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #539 on: January 23, 2021, 08:31:07 AM »
Starting see April analogs of 2006 and 2011 come used commonly. Both were quite intense months. But severe should end late April first week May im seeing ...
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

 

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