Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021

[Bruce]

Usually by mid Feb I am ready for spring.  Just hope it

[schneitzeit]

Usually by mid Feb I am ready for spring.  Just hope it

[Nashville_Wx]

Yeah, a little over 25 days into Winter and you guys are ready for Spring? This is why it does not snow here you traitors  Everyone wants its their way, not natures way. Winter for me starts in early November through late May, June if its a long season. Get back on the horse, we still have 60 days left. The models are horrible....Well then why do you believe them into the extended. Until someone can predict the future , I am not sure how much I would get pissed models past day 10. As you know we have seen major changes within day 5 all the way to day 2 and 3. Point being, the snowfall we usually get is never modeled like the storms we track in the extended range. Who know wtf is going to happen here is really what I am trying to say. All i know is , ill take it whenever I can get it. Morel season starts once the snow melts an soil temps raise. I am down for the spring and summer,  just let me have my winter

[Nashville_Wx]

Speaking of extended, I have to go to Indianapolis on the 24-28th. 12Z Euro really paints some strong through that area. Looking like a good chance to see a decent snowfall without having to get high.

[Curt]

La Ni

[Nashville_Wx]

La Ni

[snowdog]

Interesting look at February just going by ENSO analogs. Not good.

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1351527234373361665

[TNHunter]

About time to start our spring thread.  I am ready, even with over a week of duck season left.  Sunny and 70 degrees sounds awesome right about now.  I would take a repeat of last spring since we actually had one, minus the severe outbreak around Nashville.

[schneitzeit]

Any chance the MJO could head into the phases we like? It's finally moving out of the weak zone and into phase 6. Would be nice if we could catch 8, 1 and 2.

[Curt]

Any chance the MJO could head into the phases we like? It's finally moving out of the weak zone and into phase 6. Would be nice if we could catch 8, 1 and 2.

Euro has the MJO exclusively in 7 maybe on its way to 8 by mid to late February. Phase 7 in February is cold. The EPS has a negative WPO - and it

[Dyersburg Weather]

The cold in the center of country is what we need. There are a lot of ways for us to get snow but on this end of the state we need to be on the east side of the trough. Some usually get screwed with that setup.

[Flash]

Euro has the MJO exclusively in 7 maybe on its way to 8 by mid to late February. Phase 7 in February is cold. The EPS has a negative WPO - and it

[StormNine]

One positive about the upcoming long-range pattern is that we should become more stormy and therefore see more rain.  Areas west of I-65 are starting to need some rainfall.

As far as the general pattern I don't really like to bet against that late Feb/Early March, La-Nina climo it isn't really our friend and especially if the EPO isn't negative. The best case for the western half of TN and KY will be a 2008 situation where some of that cold air seeps in and times well with a March snow system, but 2012 can also happen if we aren't careful as well.   

[Bruce]

One positive about the upcoming long-range pattern is that we should become more stormy and therefore see more rain.  Areas west of I-65 are starting to need some rainfall.

As far as the general pattern I don't really like to bet against that late Feb/Early March, La-Nina climo it isn't really our friend and especially if the EPO isn't negative. The best case for the western half of TN and KY will be a 2008 situation where some of that cold air seeps in and times well with a March snow system, but 2012 can also happen if we aren't careful as well.   

i would love to have another February 08 redo again. What a fun chase night that was .

[Bruce]

Starting see April analogs of 2006 and 2011 come used commonly. Both were quite intense months. But severe should end late April first week May im seeing ...