Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021

[Nashville_Wx]

It must be a boring winter appears still I see...

No atic air Bruce no be happy. Most will say its been better than most with a glass half full not empty. I am sorry you feel this way.

[schneitzeit]

Re: severe potential, it's a good idea to prepare for what may be a destructive spring. I don't wish for any more in our area after last year's deadly tornadoes. However, severe weather is a fact of life, and it's good to know when to expect periods of enhanced activity. I am fascinated by tornadoes, and I get a pang of excitement myself when we are marked down for a high risk day, because I really enjoy tracking supercells. But in our area, I don't really care for it; they're often nocturnal, rain-wrapped, and obstructed by our hilly terrain. Conclusively, it's hard to see when these things are coming, especially at 12am when you're rushing your family and pets down to the basement.

Remember, Bruce, we lost 26 Tennesseans in last year's tornadoes in two separate events. I don't understand why you actively wish for violent weather knowing what results we will get. Again, severe weather is a fact of life, and there is nothing we can do but be prepared for it, but your comments toward these deadly outbreaks will piss off a lot of people.

[Bruce]

Re: severe potential, it's a good idea to prepare for what may be a destructive spring. I don't wish for any more in our area after last year's deadly tornadoes. However, severe weather is a fact of life, and it's good to know when to expect periods of enhanced activity. I am fascinated by tornadoes, and I get a pang of excitement myself when we are marked down for a high risk day, because I really enjoy tracking supercells. But in our area, I don't really care for it; they're often nocturnal, rain-wrapped, and obstructed by our hilly terrain. Conclusively, it's hard to see when these things are coming, especially at 12am when you're rushing your family and pets down to the basement.

Remember, Bruce, we lost 26 Tennesseans in last year's tornadoes in two separate events. I don't understand why you actively wish for violent weather knowing what results we will get. Again, severe weather is a fact of life, and there is nothing we can do but be prepared for it, but your comments toward these deadly outbreaks will piss off a lot of people.

great post man ... just don

[schneitzeit]

great post man ... just don

[Nashville_Wx]

I understand, I really, really do. Being excited for the power of Mother Nature =/= wishing for body bags. This is a weather forum. We share excitement for weather here.

Yes,  but I find it hard to get pumped up by e EF-4 + coming through your neighborhood. But he , most human like watching destruction and death

[StormNine]

Considering the events of 2020/at least Early 2021, I would say hoping for any significant event even winter ones will get you some eye-rolls especially from people with only casual interests and the general public. 

It is probably a blessing in disguise for many areas that they haven't been hit hard this winter.  Remember snowy/icy roads impact travel including emergency travel and can increase the frequency of people doing to the hospital (think slipping on ice) and with the "thing that won't be named" still on the prowl that is a good thing.   

[gcbama]

I am just gonna be the glass half full guy, i got lucky so far this season with around 3 total inches of snow, wishing for a more actual significant event but even though pattern as of now doesn't look great i know there is still another 4+ weeks of winter where you don't know what could happen.....it's all good!

[snowdog]

Pretty cool graphic from NashSevereWx on twitter showing annual snowfall for Nashville. Pretty amazing we've never seen a 20" year since the late 70s and they used to be quite common before that.

What would Nashville do these days if we saw a greater than 20" snowfall for the season? People wouldn't know what to do.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NashSevereWx/status/1350644597844824064

[Curt]

Looks like the MJO decided to wake up. Most move to borderline 6/7 over the next few days before stalling. 7 looks more likely as time moves on but the skill is not that great. Ensembles going above normal on temps in the LR until the MJO get settled. At least this year the polar vortex is open for business vs the last 2. Hopefully the MJO moves into the colder phases 7-2 for February. If not- and they stall in or move backwards....well I won

[schneitzeit]

Have to cling to something for February and March. Stick a fork in January.

[StormNine]

Looks like the MJO decided to wake up. Most move to borderline 6/7 over the next few days before stalling. 7 looks more likely as time moves on but the skill is not that great. Ensembles going above normal on temps in the LR until the MJO get settled. At least this year the polar vortex is open for business vs the last 2. Hopefully the MJO moves into the colder phases 7-2 for February. If not- and they stall in or move backwards....well I won

[Bruce]

The LR is good for the Pacific NW.  It really needs to be good for Utah and Colorado or else their water situation will turn dire, so hopefully, they can sneak some heavy snowmakers.   

As Nashville WX said we don't rely on snow much outside of our enjoyment but if places out West and especially Southwest don't get their snow then it is major water restriction time and wicked wildfire time come summer.

can u say La Ni

[StormNine]

I am still on the fence on whether we go 2008 style or 2012 style.  I think we will do one of the two. 

We go through our MJO or stay near COD, deal with the -PNA/+EPO, but have a colder air source above meaning that Feb/March turn battlezone like with a rapid increase in precipitation, changeable weather, and the potential for areas north of I-40 and I-65 to thread the needle for a winter event.  The potential is there for low amplitude troughs as you head into springtime along with a fading Nina that suggests that the state birds for Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee will all be the NOAA WX Radio.   

OR

We get stuck in MJO 6, have a huge ridge in the Central US that acts as a traffic jam, possibly lose the -NAO in the long-range and stay dry and warm, but with the occasional act of severe weather violence for any system that briefly dents the pattern.  In this case, we have a very active early spring that ends by mid-April and head into a 1930s or 2012 nearly continental drought.   

[schneitzeit]

Throwing out Sept/Oct 2019, we've been spared of a long, hot, dry summer for a while. I must wonder if one is coming up.

[Matthew]

Usually by mid Feb I am ready for spring.  Just hope it