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Author Topic: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021  (Read 40012 times)

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Offline JayCee

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #480 on: December 26, 2020, 03:26:01 PM »
Oh boy this is going to be fun to watch pan out. At least they both said F you to the Bacon Muncher CMC

I had  ::bacon:: this morning.  And I liked it.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline BALLPARK

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #481 on: December 26, 2020, 04:43:41 PM »
Nice deformation band over Eastern Arkansas and west TN on the 12z Euro. Now it has my interest.
GFS 18Z looked like a nice hit for West TN and West KY.

Online BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #482 on: December 26, 2020, 05:02:06 PM »
Joe bastardi just said in his video a major ssw event is under way.  Snowy January for the east
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #483 on: December 26, 2020, 05:04:46 PM »
Yes 18Z GFS moves deformation zone into Western TN and KY. Sharp cutoff right @ I-65.


Offline BALLPARK

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Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #485 on: December 27, 2020, 12:18:52 PM »
I can tell you if the next 15 days are close to what Operational runs are showing. Snow cover to the NW of us is going to be pretty decent. Less modified air gives us better odds during borderline events. Lots to look at in terms of what one or two misses to the NW does in regards to low level cold air. SER sets up after we could have really cold air at the surface ready for transport down into a overrunning event.


Online BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #486 on: December 28, 2020, 11:11:33 AM »
Latest gfs ensembles are showing more of a Greenland block setting up within next couple weeks. That would provide us more of a true negative nao setting up. Like see the pacific get little better for us. But canít have it all guess
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #487 on: December 31, 2020, 09:40:27 AM »
Quote
If you look at the official forecast, this is why there
are still chances throughout the week. Those aforementioned
periods are just the best bets for stronger storms. There could be
one more storm the very end of the week into next weekend,
however, ensembles are hinting at the ridge rebuilding, which
would lead to the storm weakening and/or possibly being shifted
northward.


Offline snowdog

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #488 on: January 01, 2021, 10:55:08 AM »
Euro Weekly at mid month is a pretty good look. Solid west based NAO with a decent ridge to our west. Could definitely get a nice southern slider with that look.

« Last Edit: January 01, 2021, 11:12:42 AM by snowdog »

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #489 on: January 08, 2021, 02:26:30 PM »
Eps now has it much warmer average through first half January ... ::blowtorch::

This didn't age well  ::)
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Online BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #490 on: January 08, 2021, 02:29:13 PM »
This didn't age well  ::)
well nothing in long range really does, no torch but its not cold yet to be honest either
Come on severe wx season...

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #491 on: January 08, 2021, 02:37:15 PM »
well nothing in long range really does, no torch but its not cold yet to be honest either

Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #492 on: January 13, 2021, 01:25:58 PM »
MJO is very weak. Forecast confidence for any phase is about to revert back to nil for the second time this winter.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline gcbama

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #493 on: January 13, 2021, 03:49:39 PM »
does anybody know the latest date some midstate areas have gotten an inch or more of snow? I honestly do remember snow one time around easter when i was a kid at some point, would have been 90's or early 2000's?

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #494 on: January 14, 2021, 07:38:56 AM »
does anybody know the latest date some midstate areas have gotten an inch or more of snow? I honestly do remember snow one time around easter when i was a kid at some point, would have been 90's or early 2000's?

I'd have to go with the late April snowstorm of 1910. Link: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVmHRG8U8AADxX5.png
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

 

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