Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021

[JayCee]

Oh boy this is going to be fun to watch pan out. At least they both said F you to the Bacon Muncher CMC

I had  this morning.  And I liked it.

[BALLPARK]

Nice deformation band over Eastern Arkansas and west TN on the 12z Euro. Now it has my interest.

GFS 18Z looked like a nice hit for West TN and West KY.

[BRUCE]

Joe bastardi just said in his video a major ssw event is under way.  Snowy January for the east

[Nashville_Wx]

Yes 18Z GFS moves deformation zone into Western TN and KY. Sharp cutoff right @ I-65.

[BALLPARK]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2020122700&fh=150

[Nashville_Wx]

I can tell you if the next 15 days are close to what Operational runs are showing. Snow cover to the NW of us is going to be pretty decent. Less modified air gives us better odds during borderline events. Lots to look at in terms of what one or two misses to the NW does in regards to low level cold air. SER sets up after we could have really cold air at the surface ready for transport down into a overrunning event.

[BRUCE]

Latest gfs ensembles are showing more of a Greenland block setting up within next couple weeks. That would provide us more of a true negative nao setting up. Like see the pacific get little better for us. But can’t have it all guess

[Nashville_Wx]

If you look at the official forecast, this is why there
are still chances throughout the week. Those aforementioned
periods are just the best bets for stronger storms. There could be
one more storm the very end of the week into next weekend,
however, ensembles are hinting at the ridge rebuilding, which
would lead to the storm weakening and/or possibly being shifted
northward.

[snowdog]

Euro Weekly at mid month is a pretty good look. Solid west based NAO with a decent ridge to our west. Could definitely get a nice southern slider with that look.

[schneitzeit]

Eps now has it much warmer average through first half January ...

This didn't age well 

[BRUCE]

This didn't age well 

well nothing in long range really does, no torch but its not cold yet to be honest either

[schneitzeit]

well nothing in long range really does, no torch but its not cold yet to be honest either

[schneitzeit]

MJO is very weak. Forecast confidence for any phase is about to revert back to nil for the second time this winter.

[gcbama]

does anybody know the latest date some midstate areas have gotten an inch or more of snow? I honestly do remember snow one time around easter when i was a kid at some point, would have been 90's or early 2000's?

[schneitzeit]

does anybody know the latest date some midstate areas have gotten an inch or more of snow? I honestly do remember snow one time around easter when i was a kid at some point, would have been 90's or early 2000's?

I'd have to go with the late April snowstorm of 1910. Link: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVmHRG8U8AADxX5.png