* User

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Advertisement


Author Topic: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021  (Read 40479 times)

0 Members and 4 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline Matthew

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,989
  • Location: Smryna, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 766
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #465 on: December 24, 2020, 02:16:29 PM »
strong signal of a big storm system showing up on most models next week towards new years ... could get very interesting .

It has but my guess is a huge rain storm.  Looks like dry conditions are not a worry yet.

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,482
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2446
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #466 on: December 24, 2020, 02:19:00 PM »
It has but my guess is a huge rain storm.  Looks like dry conditions are not a worry yet.
some big cold air lurking just north going try come down.  My guess we going see bunch ice
Come on severe wx season...

Offline dwagner88

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,602
  • Location: Chattanooga (East Brainerd) TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 150
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #467 on: December 24, 2020, 04:49:43 PM »
It has but my guess is a huge rain storm.  Looks like dry conditions are not a worry yet.
Yep. GFS says  ::drowning:: ::drowning::
Itís about 2 months ahead of schedule. Someone has forgotten to tell Mother Nature that we traditionally flood in February now.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25Ē

Offline gcbama

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,612
  • Location: Lewis County Tn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #468 on: December 24, 2020, 05:43:58 PM »
It has but my guess is a huge rain storm.  Looks like dry conditions are not a worry yet.

Yep looks like big rain and possibly some thunderstorms....low looks to be to our north as usual :(

I was going by what i saw on gfs this am but maybe something has changed
« Last Edit: December 24, 2020, 05:46:55 PM by gcbama »

Offline schneitzeit

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,201
  • Location: SW Williamson County
  • Wishing for a snowstorm, hunting a tornado
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1807
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #469 on: December 24, 2020, 05:50:26 PM »
Euro  ::rofl:: Looks like sleet is messing with these totals.

(Attachment Link)

What a joke.


Just like any model showing snow in Middle Tennessee in the long range.

Or the short range.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,482
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2446
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #470 on: December 24, 2020, 06:24:12 PM »
Yep looks like big rain and possibly some thunderstorms....low looks to be to our north as usual :(

I was going by what i saw on gfs this am but maybe something has changed
euro does have slp
Way further south ... picking up on some nice wrap around ... but I still fear some ice issues  if frontal boundary stalls south of us... still to far even worry just yet
Come on severe wx season...

Offline schneitzeit

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,201
  • Location: SW Williamson County
  • Wishing for a snowstorm, hunting a tornado
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1807
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #471 on: December 24, 2020, 06:30:23 PM »
euro does have slp
Way further south ... picking up on some nice wrap around ... but I still fear some ice issues  if frontal boundary stalls south of us... still to far even worry just yet

BRUCE

Join our chat
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline Nashville_Wx

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,602
  • Location: Bellevue,TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 201
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #472 on: December 25, 2020, 10:39:05 PM »
Cold air a chasing the rain like .... Chasing the rain Away........Chasing the rain awwayyyy....... I got no job.


Offline Dyersburg Weather

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,546
  • Location: North of 40
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 639
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #473 on: December 26, 2020, 07:18:28 AM »
Models are struggling with New Yearís system. GFS now has a carbon copy of Christmas Eve. The Euro has had four wildly different solutions the last four runs.

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,434
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1650
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #474 on: December 26, 2020, 08:05:55 AM »
Models are struggling with New Yearís system. GFS now has a carbon copy of Christmas Eve. The Euro has had four wildly different solutions the last four runs.

MRX agrees:

Quote
By mid week we will have another significant storm system headed our
way.  Slowed down approach of POPs by 6 hours in the grids, based on
new Euro run with deeper trough and slower movement.  We should have
a classic setup for a 12-18 hour Mountain Wave Wind event centered
right now around Thursday, with the timing differing in models. The
low level winds will be bringing up a lot of moisture, thereby
inducing some instability.  Have kept Thunder out for now, but could
see it possibly getting into southern parts of the area Thursday.

On the back side of this system the colder air could offer another
chance of snow around Thursday night into early Friday.  The overall
scenario is not too different from this White Christmas scenario,

but too early to know about available moisture, how quickly airmass
will cool, and how much lift there will be.  Looks like this precip
will taper off pretty quickly around Friday.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Coach B

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,213
  • Location: Marshall County
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 277
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #475 on: December 26, 2020, 08:56:57 AM »
DT with an excellent summary of the next month's potential:

https://youtu.be/YlCXrFCudpw

Offline Thundersnow

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 11,896
  • Location: Nolensville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 553
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #476 on: December 26, 2020, 11:36:23 AM »
Euro  ::rofl:: Looks like sleet is messing with these totals.

(Attachment Link)

Ha- I just saw this image (now a couple of days old from that model run) posted on a community FB page a few minutes ago... getting folks stirred up over the big snow storm thatís coming after the first of the year. 🤣

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,396
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #477 on: December 26, 2020, 12:29:34 PM »
Nice deformation band over Eastern Arkansas and west TN on the 12z Euro. Now it has my interest.

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,482
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2446
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #478 on: December 26, 2020, 01:09:27 PM »
Nice deformation band over Eastern Arkansas and west TN on the 12z Euro. Now it has my interest.
yeah 12 euro says happy New Years to east Arkansas and west tennessee . Nice little 1 to 3 inch swath
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Nashville_Wx

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,602
  • Location: Bellevue,TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 201
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #479 on: December 26, 2020, 01:23:16 PM »
yeah 12 euro says happy New Years to east Arkansas and west tennessee . Nice little 1 to 3 inch swath

Oh boy this is going to be fun to watch pan out. At least they both said F you to the Bacon Muncher CMC


 

* Recent Posts

Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
by Nashville_Wx
[Yesterday at 08:49:34 PM]
Gnashing of Teeth (Winter 2020-21) thread
by BRUCE
[Yesterday at 05:49:01 PM]
January 2021
by rkhvoljohnsoncity
[Yesterday at 02:23:00 PM]
20/21 Ski Season
by schneitzeit
[Yesterday at 09:43:08 AM]
Jan 15-16 Snow Chance
by schneitzeit
[January 17, 2021, 10:34:36 AM]

Advertisement