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Author Topic: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021  (Read 40009 times)

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Online snowdog

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #390 on: December 01, 2020, 10:26:20 AM »
30 years and counting. 8)

Yeah, I'm 19 years into my life sentence. Joking, joking.  ::blowtorch::

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #391 on: December 01, 2020, 10:43:45 AM »
I'm still sticking to my guns. I think some of us on the board will see some flakes flying by week 2 of December.

Boom. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.  ::snowman::
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline JayCee

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #392 on: December 01, 2020, 03:06:55 PM »
This may end up being a front loaded winter if you look at some of the blocking showing up later in December.  The NAO/AO also seem to want to stay, at the very least, out of deeply positive territory for now.  If nothing else, this month won't be like last December. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Online BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #393 on: December 01, 2020, 03:25:22 PM »
This may end up being a front loaded winter if you look at some of the blocking showing up later in December.  The NAO/AO also seem to want to stay, at the very least, out of deeply positive territory for now.  If nothing else, this month won't be like last December.
yeah, la nina 
Come on severe wx season...

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #394 on: December 01, 2020, 04:23:19 PM »
First day of December and much of Tennessee is on the board for the winter of 2020-2021.  ::snow::

Snowfall since September 30th, 2020:
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While the snow in that image is quite expansive, do note how marginal the snow cover over the contiguous U.S. is as of midnight on December 1:
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Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline Curt

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #395 on: December 01, 2020, 04:35:47 PM »
12z models showing significant PV warmth (ie PV weakening)mid to late December. If its going to be of any benefit for winter weather lovers, that's when you need it- not mid February.

Offline Curt

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Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #396 on: December 01, 2020, 05:17:38 PM »
This may end up being a front loaded winter if you look at some of the blocking showing up later in December.  The NAO/AO also seem to want to stay, at the very least, out of deeply positive territory for now.  If nothing else, this month won't be like last December.
I think we will see a shift to cold for the western 2/3rds into late December with fairly variable weather for TN. If you weaken the PV- which is looking likely, you will see bitterly cold air invade the plains at some point - and will fight with the SER. That’s a typical La Niña pattern that can be beneficial and equally cruel.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #397 on: December 01, 2020, 07:07:57 PM »
12z models showing significant PV warmth (ie PV weakening)mid to late December. If its going to be of any benefit for winter weather lovers, that's when you need it- not mid February.

For areas west of I-65 and north of I-40 the Nina ish battleground zone pattern is better than having a favorable pattern without real cold air. 

For those in Southern Middle TN and East TN you want to keep this pattern and hope for a strong ULL event or something that generates enough cold air to thread the needle.  Or at the very least something similar to last event but a bit stronger and at peak climo (late Jan-Feb).   

Offline JayCee

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #398 on: December 01, 2020, 07:24:30 PM »
I think we will see a shift to cold for the western 2/3rds into late December with fairly variable weather for TN. If you weaken the PV- which is looking likely, you will see bitterly cold air invade the plains at some point - and will fight with the SER. That’s a typical La Niña pattern that can be beneficial and equally cruel.

Sounds like a pattern that may favor west TN at some point.  In my mind changeable weather is better than what we've experienced the last few winters of endless warmth. Change is good.   ;)
« Last Edit: December 01, 2020, 07:29:22 PM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Curt

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #399 on: December 01, 2020, 08:28:08 PM »
Sounds like a pattern that may favor west TN at some point.  In my mind changeable weather is better than what we've experienced the last few winters of endless warmth. Change is good.   ;)
And to clarify- I meant western 2/3rds of the CONUS - not Tennessee.

Online BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #400 on: December 06, 2020, 01:28:26 PM »
Eps now has it much warmer average through first half January ... ::blowtorch::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #401 on: December 06, 2020, 03:12:00 PM »
EPS has been flopping back and forth the last few days. I think we will see periods of slightly above normal but also have bouts of below normal as well during and through most of January. I highly doubt we see much severe weather but maybe a thunderstorm or 2 is certainly possible in a warm period. I think that warm pool in the pacific is going to make it hard for a trough to stay locked in the west for long periods. I think there will be PNA ridges that pop now and again out there. Probably some seasonal to slightly above average temps at times but I think we will see bouts of cold air at times too. -NAO still pretty persistent on modeling as well, not that it is right. ::popcorn::  ::cold:: ::snowman::
« Last Edit: December 06, 2020, 03:15:30 PM by Clarksville Snowman »

Online BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #402 on: December 06, 2020, 03:23:45 PM »
EPS has been flopping back and forth the last few days. I think we will see periods of slightly above normal but also have bouts of below normal as well during and through most of January. I highly doubt we see much severe weather but maybe a thunderstorm or 2 is certainly possible in a warm period. I think that warm pool in the pacific is going to make it hard for a trough to stay locked in the west for long periods. I think there will be PNA ridges that pop now and again out there. Probably some seasonal to slightly above average temps at times but I think we will see bouts of cold air at times too. -NAO still pretty persistent on modeling as well, not that it is right. ::popcorn::  ::cold:: ::snowman::
towards the end of January going into February will favor a severe weather pattern as the teleconnections start to line up...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #403 on: December 07, 2020, 05:06:38 PM »
towards the end of January going into February will favor a severe weather pattern as the teleconnections start to line up...

How on God's green earth could you know what teleconnections will look like in 60 days when the forecast skill for 14 days is low?

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #404 on: December 09, 2020, 04:05:39 PM »
https://www.weather.gov/lzk/windatabase.htm

NWS Little Rock now has a winter storm database featuring winter storms from as far back as 1819.The data is still being complied for 1950 onwards.  Its esp relevant for those in west and maybe even middle TN, maybe less so for East TN. However, its really fascinating and well done. the 1870's and 1880's were absolutely insane. You can also see the major snow drought from the 1920's through the end of the database. If one were to extrapolate further until the data set is complete, the 1950's stunk too for the most part minus a couple of blockbuster storms inc the ice/snow event of Jan 1951. I would also bet that starting in about 1960, winter storms increase all the way to about 1990 when they dove tail off again. That coincides nicely with the AMO state.

 

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