Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021

[schneitzeit]

lookout... get ready for the 40 degree rains again for least temporarily.

Someone pissed in Brucie's cheerios 

[JayCee]

It's good to see some possible winter threats showing up over the next two weeks.  I'm not biting yet, but it's the pattern that has caught my interest.  PNA is going positive.  The NAO/AO are, at the very least, trending toward neutral. That says to me I might see frozen crystals falling from the sky at some point, even if they don't accumulate much.  That's huge for my latitude in early December in 2020.   

[schneitzeit]

Last "winter" was bad for Tennessee, and even more so for those eastern seaboard cities like Philadelphia that went snowless.

Similarly, the winter of 2019-2020 was unbelievably warm and snowless in Moscow and the whole of Eastern Europe. Read this article for more information: https://abcnews.go.com/International/moscow-people-adjust-winter-snow-resort/story?id=69286450

[JayCee]

A snowless winter in Moscow is like a summer without humidity in Tennessee.

[schneitzeit]

The day after Thanksgiving is a slow sales day. In my spare time today, I've compiled the weather records from OHX and created an easy-peasy Excel graph showing 121 seasons of snowfall. This spans from the 1899-1900 season to the 2019-2020 season. This is snowfall accumulation only, and note that totals at the airport in recent years may be lower than the vicinity due to the UHI effect from the airport.

Enjoy. Click for best resolution.

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[Nashville_Wx]

I wonder if we have records from John C Tune , Smyrna airports?

[Curt]

The day after Thanksgiving is a slow sales day. In my spare time today, I've compiled the weather records from OHX and created an easy-peasy Excel graph showing 121 seasons of snowfall. This spans from the 1899-1900 season to the 2019-2020 season. This is snowfall accumulation only, and note that totals at the airport in recent years may be lower than the vicinity due to the UHI effect from the airport.

Enjoy. Click for best resolution.

(Attachment Link)

In general, the 1920’s to 1950’s were poor snowfall producing years. Its easy to see the winter spike of 1917/18 before the 20’s came back with little to offer. There were some good years in that 30 year period however similar to the last 30 or so. That 30 year period was the start of the positive AMO phase. It turned negative from the early 60’s to mid 90’s then of course now it’s been negative since. Most likely that correlates to general low snowfall producing years with some heavy hitters from time to time. The positive AMO flips about every 30 years so it’s on borrowed time.

[gcbama]

The day after Thanksgiving is a slow sales day. In my spare time today, I've compiled the weather records from OHX and created an easy-peasy Excel graph showing 121 seasons of snowfall. This spans from the 1899-1900 season to the 2019-2020 season. This is snowfall accumulation only, and note that totals at the airport in recent years may be lower than the vicinity due to the UHI effect from the airport.

Enjoy. Click for best resolution.

(Attachment Link)

Proves my point of when i say when i was a kid/teenager in 90's and early 2000's we averaged much more snow than we have in past decade

[schneitzeit]

Yep. The 1981-2010 annual average snowfall for Nashville is 6.4".

The past ten winters? 4.0"

When almost all of your winters are  , that'll happen.

To be fair, Nashville struck bad luck when it had a snow dome during the cold winter of 2013-2014. Everywhere around Nashville in all directions got more snow than we did that year. It sucked.

[Curt]

ENSO 3.4 warmed some since last week to -1.3. Outside of some cooling in region 3.0- and around Indonesia which is important...the basin was neutral or warmed some. It may be a bit premature, but we may have seen this Nina bottom out already. I don't see this being in record Nina territory like the infamous ONI of -2.0 in winter 73-74. Modeling has the basin on the rise anyways early next year. If the Indonesian waters can continue to cool we might actually see the MJO rotate some this winter vs last winter...meaning more volatile weather vs benign.

[Dyersburg Weather]

ENSO 3.4 warmed about since last week to -1.3. Outside of some cooling in region 3.0- and around Indonesia which is important...the basin was neutral or warmed some. It may be a bit premature, but we may have seen this Nina bottom out already. I don't see this being in record Nina territory like the infamous ONI of -2.0 in winter 73-74. Modeling has the basin on the rise anyways early next year. If the Indonesian waters can continue to cool we might actually see the MJO rotate some this winter vs last winter...meaning more volatile weather vs benign.

I like volatile.

[schneitzeit]

Bruce often gets blasted for saying he likes severe weather, but I'm boarding the "Interesting Weather" train, too. I like my weather a little crazy. That's what American weather is all about.

[snowdog]

I like volatile.

I can only assume you've never been married.   

[Dyersburg Weather]

I can only assume you've never been married.   

30 years and counting.

[schneitzeit]

30 years and counting.

Congratulations, my man

A lot of people wish they had what you and your wife have