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Author Topic: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021  (Read 40006 times)

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Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #375 on: November 23, 2020, 03:29:26 PM »
lookout... get ready for the 40 degree rains again for least temporarily. ::sleeping::

Someone pissed in Brucie's cheerios  ::)
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline JayCee

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #376 on: November 23, 2020, 04:21:47 PM »
It's good to see some possible winter threats showing up over the next two weeks.  I'm not biting yet, but it's the pattern that has caught my interest.  PNA is going positive.  The NAO/AO are, at the very least, trending toward neutral. That says to me I might see frozen crystals falling from the sky at some point, even if they don't accumulate much.  That's huge for my latitude in early December in 2020.   
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #377 on: November 25, 2020, 12:06:05 PM »
Last "winter" was bad for Tennessee, and even more so for those eastern seaboard cities like Philadelphia that went snowless.

Similarly, the winter of 2019-2020 was unbelievably warm and snowless in Moscow and the whole of Eastern Europe. Read this article for more information: https://abcnews.go.com/International/moscow-people-adjust-winter-snow-resort/story?id=69286450

Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline JayCee

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #378 on: November 25, 2020, 01:14:47 PM »
A snowless winter in Moscow is like a summer without humidity in Tennessee.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #379 on: November 27, 2020, 01:29:10 PM »
The day after Thanksgiving is a slow sales day. In my spare time today, I've compiled the weather records from OHX and created an easy-peasy Excel graph showing 121 seasons of snowfall. This spans from the 1899-1900 season to the 2019-2020 season. This is snowfall accumulation only, and note that totals at the airport in recent years may be lower than the vicinity due to the UHI effect from the airport.

Enjoy. Click for best resolution.

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Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #380 on: November 27, 2020, 02:08:40 PM »
I wonder if we have records from John C Tune , Smyrna airports?


Offline Curt

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #381 on: November 27, 2020, 02:45:44 PM »
The day after Thanksgiving is a slow sales day. In my spare time today, I've compiled the weather records from OHX and created an easy-peasy Excel graph showing 121 seasons of snowfall. This spans from the 1899-1900 season to the 2019-2020 season. This is snowfall accumulation only, and note that totals at the airport in recent years may be lower than the vicinity due to the UHI effect from the airport.

Enjoy. Click for best resolution.

(Attachment Link)
In general, the 1920ís to 1950ís were poor snowfall producing years. Its easy to see the winter spike of 1917/18 before the 20ís came back with little to offer. There were some good years in that 30 year period however similar to the last 30 or so. That 30 year period was the start of the positive AMO phase. It turned negative from the early 60ís to mid 90ís then of course now itís been negative since. Most likely that correlates to general low snowfall producing years with some heavy hitters from time to time. The positive AMO flips about every 30 years so itís on borrowed time.

Online gcbama

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #382 on: November 27, 2020, 03:21:56 PM »
The day after Thanksgiving is a slow sales day. In my spare time today, I've compiled the weather records from OHX and created an easy-peasy Excel graph showing 121 seasons of snowfall. This spans from the 1899-1900 season to the 2019-2020 season. This is snowfall accumulation only, and note that totals at the airport in recent years may be lower than the vicinity due to the UHI effect from the airport.

Enjoy. Click for best resolution.

(Attachment Link)

Proves my point of when i say when i was a kid/teenager in 90's and early 2000's we averaged much more snow than we have in past decade

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #383 on: November 29, 2020, 08:31:35 AM »
Yep. The 1981-2010 annual average snowfall for Nashville is 6.4".

The past ten winters? 4.0"

When almost all of your winters are  ::blowtorch::, that'll happen.

To be fair, Nashville struck bad luck when it had a snow dome during the cold winter of 2013-2014. Everywhere around Nashville in all directions got more snow than we did that year. It sucked.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline Curt

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Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #384 on: November 30, 2020, 03:05:42 PM »
ENSO 3.4 warmed some since last week to -1.3. Outside of some cooling in region 3.0- and around Indonesia which is important...the basin was neutral or warmed some. It may be a bit premature, but we may have seen this Nina bottom out already. I don't see this being in record Nina territory like the infamous ONI of -2.0 in winter 73-74. Modeling has the basin on the rise anyways early next year. If the Indonesian waters can continue to cool we might actually see the MJO rotate some this winter vs last winter...meaning more volatile weather vs benign.
« Last Edit: November 30, 2020, 04:27:15 PM by Curt »

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #385 on: November 30, 2020, 03:46:23 PM »
ENSO 3.4 warmed about since last week to -1.3. Outside of some cooling in region 3.0- and around Indonesia which is important...the basin was neutral or warmed some. It may be a bit premature, but we may have seen this Nina bottom out already. I don't see this being in record Nina territory like the infamous ONI of -2.0 in winter 73-74. Modeling has the basin on the rise anyways early next year. If the Indonesian waters can continue to cool we might actually see the MJO rotate some this winter vs last winter...meaning more volatile weather vs benign.
I like volatile.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #386 on: November 30, 2020, 03:59:39 PM »
Bruce often gets blasted for saying he likes severe weather, but I'm boarding the "Interesting Weather" train, too. I like my weather a little crazy. That's what American weather is all about.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Online snowdog

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #387 on: November 30, 2020, 04:19:34 PM »
I like volatile.

I can only assume you've never been married.   ::whistling::

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #388 on: November 30, 2020, 07:55:36 PM »
I can only assume you've never been married.   ::whistling::
30 years and counting. 8)

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #389 on: November 30, 2020, 07:58:05 PM »
30 years and counting. 8)

Congratulations, my man :D

A lot of people wish they had what you and your wife have
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

 

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