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Author Topic: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021  (Read 42301 times)

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Online BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #360 on: November 21, 2020, 02:32:44 PM »
If the polar vortex wasn't being a turd we would have a shot at below-average temperatures, but with the main ridging to our west and northwest, we should avoid the widespread torch temperatures we saw in 1998 and last year.   
that polar vortex is on steroids ...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #361 on: November 21, 2020, 09:08:15 PM »
going by latest temps map I observed

I'm still not sure what you saw that I missed, but this is the latest EPS run by Dec 1:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=T850a&runtime=2020112112&fh=240

I would have posted an image, but the site will not allow me to at the present time.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #362 on: November 21, 2020, 09:39:45 PM »
So shoot me, but, some of us might darn well be looking at our first winter event at the end of the month.

Stay tuned.  ::snowman::
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Online BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #363 on: November 21, 2020, 11:36:47 PM »
So shoot me, but, some of us might darn well be looking at our first winter event at the end of the month.

Stay tuned.  ::snowman::
i can see the highest elevations of east tennessee maybe
Come on severe wx season...

Online Clint

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #364 on: November 22, 2020, 12:27:09 PM »
 CMC  :o

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #365 on: November 22, 2020, 12:45:12 PM »
Since I'm painfully wish-casting some snow, here's Bruce's version of what's to come  >:D

Thanksgiving Week: temps 60s.... possible severe

Nov 29 - Dec 5: temps 50s 60s... up to 70s by end of week... severe outbreak sw round texas plains area

Dec 6 - Dec 12: temps way above avg... humid... dry in se coast due to se ridge effect

Dec 13 - Dec 19: big severe outbreak... cold front moves thru mid south.... lot instability in ark. miss and west tn...

Christmas Week: ice storm for whole state of tenn and ky... then back to above normal temps... 70 on christmas day...
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #366 on: November 23, 2020, 07:43:44 AM »
CMC is really blasting the cold into the Ohio Valley and Upper MS River region. GFS, not so much, but does show a hard freeze around Nov 30-Dec 1
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Online BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #367 on: November 23, 2020, 08:37:39 AM »
CMC is really blasting the cold into the Ohio Valley and Upper MS River region. GFS, not so much, but does show a hard freeze around Nov 30-Dec 1
cmc is cold bias . But I think we see our first hard freeze early December.  Per euro
Come on severe wx season...

Offline gcbama

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #368 on: November 23, 2020, 09:46:27 AM »
cmc is cold bias . But I think we see our first hard freeze early December.  Per euro

first hard freeze? I have had temps at 27 and 28 about 3 times already ? whats going on out there in west tn?

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #369 on: November 23, 2020, 11:03:48 AM »
first hard freeze? I have had temps at 27 and 28 about 3 times already ? whats going on out there in west tn?

I have not dropped below 30 at my location yet. It would be my first hard freeze of the year as well.

Also, I thought your response to Bruce was Bruce responding to his own post for a second there  ;D
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline BALLPARK

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #370 on: November 23, 2020, 11:09:42 AM »
Since I'm painfully wish-casting some snow, here's Bruce's version of what's to come  >:D

Thanksgiving Week: temps 60s.... possible severe

Nov 29 - Dec 5: temps 50s 60s... up to 70s by end of week... severe outbreak sw round texas plains area

Dec 6 - Dec 12: temps way above avg... humid... dry in se coast due to se ridge effect

Dec 13 - Dec 19: big severe outbreak... cold front moves thru mid south.... lot instability in ark. miss and west tn...

Christmas Week: ice storm for whole state of tenn and ky... then back to above normal temps... 70 on christmas day...
Bruce you still predicting 50s-60s-70s for Nov 29 - Dec 5

Online BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #371 on: November 23, 2020, 11:18:45 AM »
Bruce you still predicting 50s-60s-70s for Nov 29 - Dec 5
high temps appear to be around 50 to uppers 50s range for highs . Could see some upper 40s for day or two for the plateau region.
Come on severe wx season...

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #372 on: November 23, 2020, 11:50:51 AM »
What a classic La-Nina like, wait a minute below average or at least temps in the SE, building heights in the northern plains, active subtropical jet, +PNA, who poured this Nino into my La Niņa cake mix

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #373 on: November 23, 2020, 12:59:56 PM »
What a classic La-Nina like, wait a minute below average or at least temps in the SE, building heights in the northern plains, active subtropical jet, +PNA, who poured this Nino into my La Niņa cake mix

 ::snow::
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Online BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #374 on: November 23, 2020, 02:15:25 PM »
What a classic La-Nina like, wait a minute below average or at least temps in the SE, building heights in the northern plains, active subtropical jet, +PNA, who poured this Nino into my La Niņa cake mix
lookout... get ready for the 40 degree rains again for least temporarily. ::sleeping::
Come on severe wx season...

 

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