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I forecast a predominant +AO/+NAO winter combined with a North Pacific pattern that is mixed, featuring a suppressed N Pac ridge at times keeping cold air bottled up to the north (target: December), and a more poleward N Pac ridge at other times allowing cold air to spill south into the lower 48 (target: February).
Really nice and detailed winter outlook from Griteater at American Weather Forum. He goes with a mix of 1988-89 and 1893-94. Both were overall above average but punctuated by some severe cold spells and a couple of ice/snow threats. The February 1894 period ended with brutal cold temps and a huge snowstorm. I don't recall from their records on NCDC database that severe was a big factor.https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S-f_HQdrNYZkrRw_6YhkFCkASa0WAZpa/view21 pages BUT the gist is something I agree with:If you peep a little further on the NCDC website, March 1984 was anomalously warm month for the first 3 weeks followed by a severe late season cold spell and snow- which apparently did a number on the growing season.
1988-89 had severe weather. The Brentwood/Franklin tornado on Christmas Eve and then an F-4 hit somewhere in SW Indiana in January. 1893-94 not sure about. 1988-89 was very similar to a more subdued 2007-08 as far as the general pattern goes. There is an avenue for that type of winter described above to occur especially if a strat warming event occurs in January and helps send the PV down. Not sure if I personally buy it, but in the long-range game there is a lot that can go right or wrong either way.
lol. Sounds like going against the grain
You’re right about those for sure. Although they seemed to be loners if I recall rather than broads scale. I was mostly looking into the following spring seasons.
Maybe, but sometimes going against the grain works. There was a guy who went against the grain in 2018-19 and was laughed at it and his outlook was one of the only to verify. A well-timed Strat Warming event could make his outlook verify nicely and our 1998-99 mixed with 2017-18 outlook not look as good.
His overall forecast is warm which really isn’t against the grain. He’s smart to realize that most La Niña winters react to the position of the Pac ridge position - and can easily allow cold air to spill down into the lower 48. I think it’s a smart forecast. Bruce means against the grain for not calling for multiple tornado outbreaks. There is always a risk with La Niña but previous data shows it not that pat.
Take with a grain of salt, but by the end of 12Z run of the GFS, positive (above normal) temperature anomalies cover nearly all of Canada. Actually, it's difficult to find any truly cold air anywhere on our side of the globe by early December. It will be difficult to get sustained cold here when the source region is well above seasonal temperatures. The only saving grace is a decent snow pack continues to build over southeastern Canada (Quebec and Ontario) over the next two weeks per the forecast. However, the provinces west of there are flooded with Pacific air it appears, and snowfall is below normal--especially in the lee of the Rockies. Not a good look for early winter weather, but things can change.
To be honest, I think if this winter stinks it up don't blame the Nina, it will be the MJO, the strong Polar Vortex, or the Pacific ridge sets too far to the west. We can't pin it all on the ENSO because if we could then we wouldn't have had two crappy winters following a favorable west-based weak El-Nino series.
I blame our geographical location. Its 2020 , so maybe we can pull something funky out of the bag by the end of year. Its a slow start in many places. Only 2 good snows so far out in the West. Mt Baker is getting the good over the next 15 days. PNW above H85 is getting clobbered..... Pattern will change and there will be more troughing/ridging setting up .... Fast Pacific , we know how this goes.
our geographic location used to not matter
