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Author Topic: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021  (Read 17293 times)

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Offline Beth

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #195 on: October 30, 2020, 09:45:59 AM »
The way this year has gone I would not doubt we have a ice storm then a blizzard before December 31.  ::rofl::

Offline JayCee

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #196 on: October 30, 2020, 01:15:02 PM »
The last snow "storm" IMBY (4+) was 2015.  I've had a few ankle biters here and there since (some up to 2"), but most occurred overnight when I couldn't enjoy watching it descend (half the fun), and was gone a few hours after sunrise.   
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline gcbama

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #197 on: October 30, 2020, 04:19:23 PM »
The last snow "storm" IMBY (4+) was 2015.  I've had a few ankle biters here and there since (some up to 2"), but most occurred overnight when I couldn't enjoy watching it descend (half the fun), and was gone a few hours after sunrise.

last 4+ I had was 2011 :(

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #198 on: October 31, 2020, 08:14:06 AM »
My last 4+ inch one was January 2018

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #199 on: October 31, 2020, 08:15:09 AM »
The way this year has gone I would not doubt we have a ice storm then a blizzard before December 31.  ::rofl::

Then we go into January with a tornado outbreak followed by another ice storm just because 

Offline JayCee

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #200 on: October 31, 2020, 08:49:00 AM »
Mid to late November look interesting as the NAO/AO seem to both go into negative territory.  At the very least, it would mean below normal temps.  The last several winters seemed to be dominated by a moderate to strong positive Arctic Oscillation, especially last year.  Could we finally have a winter where they go negative and stay there for longer periods of time?  And would that override the La Nina SER enough to deliver some winter weather in our region?  And where will the cold air "dump?"  Our side of the globe, or elsewhere?  Time will tell the tale.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Online BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #201 on: October 31, 2020, 09:20:08 AM »
Mid to late November look interesting as the NAO/AO seem to both go into negative territory.  At the very least, it would mean below normal temps.  The last several winters seemed to be dominated by a moderate to strong positive Arctic Oscillation, especially last year.  Could we finally have a winter where they go negative and stay there for longer periods of time?  And would that override the La Nina SER enough to deliver some winter weather in our region?  And where will the cold air "dump?"  Our side of the globe, or elsewhere?  Time will tell the tale.
looking like there will be a narrow window of possible negative nao... but it won’t last very long  as conditions  will go with typical modest. To strong Niña  enso
« Last Edit: October 31, 2020, 10:28:54 AM by BRUCE »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #202 on: October 31, 2020, 02:04:56 PM »
If we were to have a solidly -AO and -NAO that would override the stronger La-Nina at least to a degree.

Remember there is more to this than just a strong La-Nina.  2010-11 was a Strong La-Nina and 1917-18 was almost a Strong La-Nina, but in order for winter like those two to occur, you would need that AO and NAO to be negative. 

Probably our best situation is we keep the ridging in the Southwest have a strong northern stream and have a winter like 2007-08, 2008-09, and even 2017-18 to a degree where we are close enough to have a fighting chance. 2007-08 was actually a very solid winter for Southeastern Missouri which is pretty close to West TN.   


Online BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #203 on: October 31, 2020, 04:51:15 PM »
New month ... looks like the models starting hint at temps pushing 80 by late first week November going into mid month even ... 😀
Come on severe wx season...

Offline TNHunter

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #204 on: October 31, 2020, 09:03:30 PM »
If we were to have a solidly -AO and -NAO that would override the stronger La-Nina at least to a degree.

Remember there is more to this than just a strong La-Nina.  2010-11 was a Strong La-Nina and 1917-18 was almost a Strong La-Nina, but in order for winter like those two to occur, you would need that AO and NAO to be negative. 

Probably our best situation is we keep the ridging in the Southwest have a strong northern stream and have a winter like 2007-08, 2008-09, and even 2017-18 to a degree where we are close enough to have a fighting chance. 2007-08 was actually a very solid winter for Southeastern Missouri which is pretty close to West TN.

Was 17-18 a La Niña? That was a very cold winter, honestly would rather not see it get that cold.

Online BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #205 on: October 31, 2020, 10:03:13 PM »
Was 17-18 a La Niña? That was a very cold winter, honestly would rather not see it get that cold.
started out La Niña but quickly translated to neutral...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline gcbama

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #206 on: November 02, 2020, 08:38:51 AM »
this is very random....has there ever been a blizzard watch/warning anywhere in the southeast

Offline Drifter49

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Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #207 on: November 02, 2020, 08:41:45 AM »
this is very random....has there ever been a blizzard watch/warning anywhere in the southeast
March 1993 Superstorm. I’m quite sure Birmingham was under one among some other places that I would have to look up.
What amazed me the most was that the national weather service offices pretty much nailed down that storm almost a week out, something that’s almost unheard of today.

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« Last Edit: November 02, 2020, 08:48:54 AM by Drifter49 »
To enjoy things in life that are good, you first must endure things that suck!
Bring on the snow baby!!!

Offline snowdog

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #208 on: November 02, 2020, 09:19:37 AM »
New month ... looks like the models starting hint at temps pushing 80 by late first week November going into mid month even ... 😀

Dang, I put my Man'kini away too soon....

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #209 on: November 02, 2020, 09:57:21 AM »
Dang, I put my Man'kini away too soon....

The visual cannot be unseen. I googled and wish I hadn't.  ::doh::
« Last Edit: November 02, 2020, 10:00:33 AM by Thundersnow »

 

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