* User

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Advertisement


Author Topic: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021  (Read 17292 times)

0 Members and 3 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,257
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 377
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #165 on: October 24, 2020, 12:26:29 PM »
No way. Northeast TN averages like 3-4x as much annually as Memphis.
No doubt. The higher elevations of East Tennessee especially over 2000 for eek out more snow showers post cold front than anywhere in the state. Most of the state is subject to high end winter storms a few times each decade- just not persistent snow showers during the winter like those elevations. Terrain means everything. The only benefit west has in elevation ironically is low elevation and CAA for Arctic air masses that bleed down from the plains. It’s actually advantageous to drain those air masses and lock them in while they usually get stuck at the Cumberland Plateau.

Offline gcbama

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,255
  • Location: Lewis County Tn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #166 on: October 24, 2020, 01:37:14 PM »
No doubt. The higher elevations of East Tennessee especially over 2000 for eek out more snow showers post cold front than anywhere in the state. Most of the state is subject to high end winter storms a few times each decade- just not persistent snow showers during the winter like those elevations. Terrain means everything. The only benefit west has in elevation ironically is low elevation and CAA for Arctic air masses that bleed down from the plains. It’s actually advantageous to drain those air masses and lock them in while they usually get stuck at the Cumberland Plateau.

Agreed, cookville to crossville area just averages more because they get little 1-2 inch snows a few times per year ..... to me that is just annoyance snow...unless i can get 3-5+ inches of snow in a storm i don't want it

Offline StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,770
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 175
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #167 on: October 24, 2020, 02:09:23 PM »
Jamestown on the plateau their all-time average is around 20 inches of snow which is equivalent to the I-70 corridor in IL/IN.  Their 30-year average is probably a decent deal lower than that because they have had some lousy winters here recently especially the last two years and several years in the 2000s. 
 
Not only the elevation but the orographic lift helps them out.

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,257
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 377
Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #168 on: October 24, 2020, 03:23:49 PM »
The 2010 /11 La Niña strength and QBO are almost identical. There has been some warming just along the Alaskan pacific coast which might be crucial to having any cold later. SST look more similar to 2017/18 but the QBO was severely negative back then. I don’t think the SST back in the Eastern Indian Ocean are near as offensive as last year. Could be a real roller coaster in these parts for temps the CFS2 more warm although the IRI has cold. Its probably a combination of the 2 which what I think will have some serious temp boundary set ups which could go for or against. One thing I’m confident in is the northern and central plains having a long cold winter. Honestly, we don’t have long sustained cold winters here. They usually hit in a 2 to 4 week window. Doesn’t take much for a “success “ down here.

CFS


IRI






Or I could be completely wrong about all of it.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2020, 03:30:26 PM by Curt »

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,160
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2302
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #169 on: October 24, 2020, 03:43:41 PM »
The 2010 /11 La Niña strength and QBO are almost identical. There has been some warming just along the Alaskan pacific coast which might be crucial to having any cold later. SST look more similar to 2017/18 but the QBO was severely negative back then. I don’t think the SST back in the Eastern Indian Ocean are near as offensive as last year. Could be a real roller coaster in these parts for temps the CFS2 more warm although the IRI has cold. Its probably a combination of the 2 which what I think will have some serious temp boundary set ups which could go for or against. One thing I’m confident in is the northern and central plains having a long cold winter. Honestly, we don’t have long sustained cold winters here. They usually hit in a 2 to 4 week window. Doesn’t take much for a “success “ down here.

CFS


IRI






Or I could be completely wrong about all of it.
i definitely take another 2011 severe wx type in spring of 2021.
Come on severe wx season...

Offline TNHunter

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 440
  • Location:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #170 on: October 24, 2020, 06:27:20 PM »
No way. Northeast TN averages like 3-4x as much annually as Memphis.

Lol yea the mountains. They should do better. Memphis is way far south. More NW TN where I am at. We score a lot while y’all cry lol.

Offline schneitzeit

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,859
  • Location: Nashville, TN, 37211
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1605
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #171 on: October 24, 2020, 08:11:19 PM »
Lol yea the mountains. They should do better. Memphis is way far south. More NW TN where I am at. We score a lot while y’all cry lol.

Must be all those swamps and Dollar Generals  ::rofl::
.

Offline Drifter49

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,405
  • Location: Paris Tn.
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #172 on: October 24, 2020, 10:09:19 PM »
Must be all those swamps and Dollar Generals  ::rofl::
Definitely the dollar general’s


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
To enjoy things in life that are good, you first must endure things that suck!
Bring on the snow baby!!!

Offline StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,770
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 175
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #173 on: October 25, 2020, 07:30:27 AM »
Some models show the La Nina dropping down to -2C which is crazy strong, but then quickly warm us up back to Neutral by early Spring.  It is one of the sharpest drops and sharpest rises I have ever seen in the models.

It should be noted that ENSO models always weaken a El-Nino or La-Nina event a lot quicker in the early Spring than reality.   

If this is true based on what we are seeing than 1998-99 and 2007-08 become top analogs with perhaps a little 1988-89 and 2010-11 flavor.   

Interestingly enough with the exception of making December a bit warmer, it wouldn't change my winter outlook that much at least in KY/TN. 

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,160
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2302
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #174 on: October 25, 2020, 08:37:19 AM »
Some models show the La Nina dropping down to -2C which is crazy strong, but then quickly warm us up back to Neutral by early Spring.  It is one of the sharpest drops and sharpest rises I have ever seen in the models.

It should be noted that ENSO models always weaken a El-Nino or La-Nina event a lot quicker in the early Spring than reality.   

If this is true based on what we are seeing than 1998-99 and 2007-08 become top analogs with perhaps a little 1988-89 and 2010-11 flavor.   

Interestingly enough with the exception of making December a bit warmer, it wouldn't change my winter outlook that much at least in KY/TN.
that sharp drop off that’s what is going activate us into the severe wx pattern ... chances Are fairly high for a major large scale severe outbreak somewhere Across the south late winter into next spring . Stay tuned
« Last Edit: October 25, 2020, 01:28:57 PM by BRUCE »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline TNHunter

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 440
  • Location:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #175 on: October 25, 2020, 07:17:42 PM »
Must be all those swamps and Dollar Generals  ::rofl::

If only the rest of the world were only swamps and dollar generals it would be a much better place!

Offline schneitzeit

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,859
  • Location: Nashville, TN, 37211
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1605
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #176 on: October 26, 2020, 08:07:30 PM »
https://youtu.be/YwehzWN4c_g


^^ Estimated daily snow depth from 1950 - 2015
.

Offline gcbama

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,255
  • Location: Lewis County Tn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #177 on: October 26, 2020, 08:13:54 PM »
Refresh my memory ( i am living vicariously through past winters) But didn't mid tennessee get 2 or 3 good snow events in Jan-Feb 2011?

I seem to remember getting a few storms that year with 3-5 inches each time wide spread in mid state

Offline Coach B

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,148
  • Location: Marshall County
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 253
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #178 on: October 26, 2020, 09:35:20 PM »
Refresh my memory ( i am living vicariously through past winters) But didn't mid tennessee get 2 or 3 good snow events in Jan-Feb 2011?

I seem to remember getting a few storms that year with 3-5 inches each time wide spread in mid state
January 10th was the big one down our way with a good swath of 6-12" across southern middle TN. Hung around a full week. The other snows I recorded were all 2" or less on Dec 12, 25, and 26th, Jan 26th, and Feb 7th and 9th.

You can find excellent records going way back on the NOWData page of the NWS:
https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=ohx

*I've found much of the snowfall data is missing for my nearest location, but its solid for Nashville, Clarksville, and Crossville.

« Last Edit: October 27, 2020, 07:30:38 AM by Coach B »

Offline Coach B

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,148
  • Location: Marshall County
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 253
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #179 on: October 29, 2020, 08:59:22 AM »

 

* Recent Posts

December 2020
by StormNine
[Yesterday at 08:11:02 PM]
November 2020
by dwagner88
[Yesterday at 01:27:05 PM]
Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
by JayCee
[November 23, 2020, 04:21:47 PM]
2020 Tropical Season Outlook
by JayCee
[November 21, 2020, 05:24:16 PM]
New Madrid Seismic Zone Activity
by bugalou
[November 21, 2020, 03:27:27 PM]

Advertisement