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Author Topic: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021  (Read 7413 times)

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Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #105 on: October 15, 2020, 12:04:14 PM »
I'm just not feeling a warm winter overall. I think it will be average temps and rainfall.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #106 on: October 15, 2020, 02:54:26 PM »
Noaa released their winter forecast today ... warmer than average overall for us...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline joemomma

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #107 on: October 16, 2020, 08:20:05 AM »
I have zero faith in any long term outlooks at this point.  You can watch trends/patterns/analogues, but mother nature has a way of throwing a wrench in the works more often than not.  I don't put much stock in anything more than a week out.

Offline TNHunter

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #108 on: October 16, 2020, 10:46:03 AM »
I have zero faith in any long term outlooks at this point.  You can watch trends/patterns/analogues, but mother nature has a way of throwing a wrench in the works more often than not.  I don't put much stock in anything more than a week out.

Ding Ding Ding, we have a winner!  Nobody has a clue out past 15 days!  Might get be right a small % of time but that is it.  It is fun to try and guess what might happen but that is all it is.  Had a meteorology professor in college tell us that if someone thinks they know what will happen a season in advance, they are full of $hitt lol.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #109 on: October 16, 2020, 12:19:41 PM »
Ding Ding Ding, we have a winner!  Nobody has a clue out past 15 days!  Might get be right a small % of time but that is it.  It is fun to try and guess what might happen but that is all it is.  Had a meteorology professor in college tell us that if someone thinks they know what will happen a season in advance, they are full of $hitt lol.
agree with u in  most of this u said... but one thing u can take to the bank is the colder winters we had seen 70s 80 s at times are gone, to much climate change weather we believe it or not. I am just glad I got to enjoy them during my childhood and younger days :D
Come on severe wx season...

Offline nrgJeff

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #110 on: October 16, 2020, 03:20:18 PM »
When they update the Normals it'll be harder. For another several months, just always go above normal. Happy Weekend Y'all!
Jeff H
Energy Meteorologist - U. of Kansas
Thoughts are my own.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #111 on: October 18, 2020, 12:15:56 PM »
Snowpack is building pretty well in Siberia
.

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #112 on: October 18, 2020, 01:19:23 PM »
agree with u in  most of this u said... but one thing u can take to the bank is the colder winters we had seen 70s 80 s at times are gone, to much climate change weather we believe it or not. I am just glad I got to enjoy them during my childhood and younger days :D
You say that as fact but you don't know now more than me what the climate has in store. The climate has been changing since God made the world, it can change on a dime. And no we don't know how much man has affected it or not, the climate has a way of overcoming and healing itself. I don't know and you don't really know but we all got our opinions. You can go back and find warm stretches hundreds of years ago and further and cold always come back and I suspect it will again. Even scientist do not agree, only time will tell nobody knows for certain.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #113 on: October 18, 2020, 03:32:39 PM »
You say that as fact but you don't know now more than me what the climate has in store. The climate has been changing since God made the world, it can change on a dime. And no we don't know how much man has affected it or not, the climate has a way of overcoming and healing itself. I don't know and you don't really know but we all got our opinions. You can go back and find warm stretches hundreds of years ago and further and cold always come back and I suspect it will again. Even scientist do not agree, only time will tell nobody knows for certain.
just interesting how temps average keeps moving up. Annually... hope I am wrong
Come on severe wx season...

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #114 on: October 18, 2020, 05:07:41 PM »
Outside of Washington State my outlook and the NOAA outlook are very similar.   

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #115 on: October 18, 2020, 05:15:53 PM »
Wait, we are still trying to forecast past 72hours for Winter. I stopped putting any faith in a Winter Outlook for the TN area... A majority of the snowfall that we get in this state is localized and seasonal averages can be had in a day. Fun to watch, but not worth the investment anymore.


Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #116 on: October 18, 2020, 05:25:14 PM »
Wait, we are still trying to forecast past 72hours for Winter. I stopped putting any faith in a Winter Outlook for the TN area... A majority of the snowfall that we get in this state is localized and seasonal averages can be had in a day. Fun to watch, but not worth the investment anymore.
It is very tough to get a statewide hit for a snowstorm, it has happened but not lately for sure. One reason though is our state is long and systems cut alot, we are like a 4 way intersection it seems. I would love to see a good old fashioned southern slider, west to east straight across. I remember a good one in 85. Seems like we used to get them sliders more in the 70's and 80's.

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #117 on: October 18, 2020, 05:35:30 PM »
just interesting how temps average keeps moving up. Annually... hope I am wrong
No doubt we have been in a warmer period there is no doubt about that. I just remember in the 60's and 70's when we were in cold periods and many said ice age is coming. I go back and look at records and the temp swings have went back and forth alot through history. Not to say you might be on to something, but at the same time I am not buying anything. Mother nature has made many major moves since the earth has been here and I just have my doubts that scientist truly know what's around the corner in the next 20-30 years. I guess that's why we like weather especially here in Tennessee, it's tough to get snow but some years we can score and now and then we can score big, at least parts of the state can. It is hard to get the entire state involved at once but that again can happen. If we got snow all the time like up north our board probably wouldn't be as exciting. But we do need a good snow this year the last 2 years has been terrible for the entire state. We haven't had a half inch snow in the last 2 years here, a skimmer of ice in november of 18 and a few flurries last year that skimmed the ground in only spots. We need a 1-2 inch snow anyway, hopefully we will score before January this year. It looks like it will be tough after mid jan, of course mother nature can always change course. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #118 on: October 18, 2020, 06:52:55 PM »
I would also say the stronger the Nina the slightly better we chance we have at having a March Hail-Mary. 

I would say Thanksgiving to Christmas and early to mid March are the better windows for snow.  I would also watch for an ice storm threat at anytime along the I-44 corridor and perhaps as far southeast as NW TN and West KY.  2021 could be a rather rough year for severe weather if the Central USA can avoid drought.   

Offline Nash_LSU

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #119 on: October 19, 2020, 08:27:27 AM »
Wait, we are still trying to forecast past 24 hours for Winter.

Fixed it for you, at least for western and middle TN. East gets 36 hours.

 

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