* User

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Advertisement


Author Topic: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021  (Read 7352 times)

0 Members and 3 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,079
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2258
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #45 on: September 02, 2020, 05:36:47 PM »
His warm forecast in 2010-11 went about as well as his cold winter forecasts since then have went.
yeah but that winter 10 11 came to a quick halt... once that la nina got stronger...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline gcbama

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,225
  • Location: Lewis County Tn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #46 on: September 02, 2020, 06:16:45 PM »
not sure where to put this but is anybody going to do a new college football thread :)

Offline Thundersnow

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 11,827
  • Location: Nolensville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 549
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #47 on: September 02, 2020, 07:34:23 PM »
not sure where to put this but is anybody going to do a new college football thread :)

Already there- https://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,3968.0.html

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,239
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #48 on: September 03, 2020, 01:47:05 PM »
The QBO did a total head fake. It was headed negative, stopped a couple months ago and is now on the quick rise up. Itís the only year in ANY records itís barely gone negative to start going positive. In all other cases, when it goes negative it tanks for 12 months. But itís 2020 so why not buck all trends.

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,239
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #49 on: September 25, 2020, 12:14:44 PM »
There are some winter winner analogs and some winter loser analogs. As more pieces are coming together here is where we are now:

1. Weak to Mod La Nina- most models are peaking this La Nina in October and keeping it stable through the winter.
2. QBO- positive or westerly
3. PDO- mildly negative
3. AMO- positive as it has for the last 25 years
4. Solar- low- in fact we are in one of the lowest on record
5. IOD- negative (was ridiculously positive last winter)

As long as the La Nina doesn't get strong which is not forecast which would be a torch, I think there will be some chances for winter to be decent at times. 2010-2011 and 1995-96 are similar in fit to the 5 indexes above. There are some negative AMO winters that look similar to the other features that were mild. As always, the EPO, NAO, and AO are all transient so those will be short term reads. The JMA has a brutally cold northern plains and great lakes winter with more mild across the south. With cold air lurking, I would think that even with an overall mild winter, we could do nicely at times. the CFS2 is actually cold from the central plains into the east which def fits the 2010-11 and 1995-96 analogs. As usual, the Euro is a torch; I cant remember when it has caught any cold air past 2-3 weeks. As Storm said, a Sonoran ridge does look likely in the SW- which could swing a SW flow over the area at times. Does a SE ridge appear, too? Perhaps. Its a friend or foe depending on strength. More later as we get closer.

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,079
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2258
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #50 on: September 25, 2020, 02:28:15 PM »
There are some winter winner analogs and some winter loser analogs. As more pieces are coming together here is where we are now:

1. Weak to Mod La Nina- most models are peaking this La Nina in October and keeping it stable through the winter.
2. QBO- positive or westerly
3. PDO- mildly negative
3. AMO- positive as it has for the last 25 years
4. Solar- low- in fact we are in one of the lowest on record
5. IOD- negative (was ridiculously positive last winter)

As long as the La Nina doesn't get strong which is not forecast which would be a torch, I think there will be some chances for winter to be decent at times. 2010-2011 and 1995-96 are similar in fit to the 5 indexes above. There are some negative AMO winters that look similar to the other features that were mild. As always, the EPO, NAO, and AO are all transient so those will be short term reads. The JMA has a brutally cold northern plains and great lakes winter with more mild across the south. With cold air lurking, I would think that even with an overall mild winter, we could do nicely at times. the CFS2 is actually cold from the central plains into the east which def fits the 2010-11 and 1995-96 analogs. As usual, the Euro is a torch; I cant remember when it has caught any cold air past 2-3 weeks. As Storm said, a Sonoran ridge does look likely in the SW- which could swing a SW flow over the area at times. Does a SE ridge appear, too? Perhaps. Its a friend or foe depending on strength. More later as we get closer.
i am really getting excited about seeing a decent to potent severe wx outbreak also during mid late winter here ...
Come on severe wx season...

Online Crockett

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,542
  • Location: Oneida, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 42
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #51 on: September 25, 2020, 02:38:12 PM »
i am really getting excited about seeing a decent to potent severe wx outbreak also during mid late winter here ...

Over your house, of course.  ::)

Offline Eric

  • IF THE NAM VERIFIES
  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 14,778
  • Location: MTSU by day, Morrison by night
  • Call sign: KJ4IXE
    • My Blog...
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 926
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #52 on: September 25, 2020, 04:29:58 PM »
i am really getting excited about seeing a decent to potent severe wx outbreak also during mid late winter here ...

#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

Offline StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,724
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 174
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #53 on: September 25, 2020, 05:58:29 PM »
I am a bit more pessimistic when it comes to the winter outlook, but there are some encourgaging signs.  The legion like Sonora ridge and +PNA structure is one of those.

Hint: if you are Bruce you don't like this because +PNA's tend to be more unfavorable for widespread severe weather. 

The Indian Ocean warmth and tendancy to be strung along Phases 4,5,6, and maybe some time in 7 is yuck.  The climate change warming effect cannot be ignored and with a weaker La-Nina there is always that SE Ridge effect. 

The big wildcard this winter is cue the media "the Polar Vortex" do we have those strong low pressure systems in the poles or in places like the Gulf of Alaksa where we don't want them, which bottle up the cold air way to our north.  Therefore the EPO and the Polar Vortex strength are key and are the reason why 2019-20 and that whole strand of late 90s/early 2000s winters went to crap for pretty much all of the USA and most of Canada.   

I think the two options for winter are:

The Bad: The EPO doesn't cooperate and the Polar Vortex remains too strong so pretty much a repeat of last winter mixed with some 52-53 and 98-99.  Severe weather chances would increase while winter weather chances decrease although a window would exist for an ice storm especially across western and northern areas of TN and points northwest.

The Better:  Some mix of 2017-18 and 1995-96. The 2nd half of February would still torch, but with a weaken polar vortex, some cold air storage from last winter, and the western ridge at times forcing troughing eastward thanks to a +PNA there would be at least one if not even a few periods of colder than average weather and winter storm threats.  Outside of later in February severe weather wouldn't be as much of an issue.  This would probably feature a very warm west and especially southwestern USA, average Pacific NW, below average Upper Midwest and possibility as far south as the Ohio Valley, and average to above-average but changeable Southeastern and East Coast regions. If we want to get colder in the Southeast and East Coast we would need a -NAO.       


« Last Edit: September 25, 2020, 06:24:18 PM by StormNine »

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,079
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2258
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Nashville_Wx

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,406
  • Location: Bellevue,TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 151
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #55 on: September 27, 2020, 04:30:07 PM »
ok....
[/quote

I am going to be busy that day outside? Can you please be more detailed with the day and time?


Offline schneitzeit

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,809
  • Location: Nashville, TN, 37211
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1570
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #56 on: September 27, 2020, 11:01:18 PM »
Here is my forecast for this winter.

[ Guests cannot view attachments ]



.

Offline schneitzeit

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,809
  • Location: Nashville, TN, 37211
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1570
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #57 on: September 27, 2020, 11:44:12 PM »
Snowfall forecast for the state. It's probably doo-doo, but whatever. As with sports, I have fun making weather predictions.

We have a weak to possibly moderate La Nina that may strengthen the detested SE ridge, as analogs suggest. That will create some edging for good snows to our state's north and northwest, but with some buckling in the ridge and a favorable storm track (increased precipitation), I believe West Tennessee- especially NW Tennessee- could really benefit from this. Places like southern Middle Tennessee and the southern East TN Valley will too often be on the warm side of the storm tracks to witness snowfall. I think cities like Chattanooga could pick up some minor snow accumulation from an Alberta Clipper, but with a warm winter in the forecast for our region, it might require a combination of sufficient snowpack to our northwest and a -AO to create snowfall in Tennessee's southern reaches.

Bold predictions
1. Nashville gets the most snow of Tennessee's big four cities
2. Northwest Tennessee receives above average snowfall
3. Southern Middle Tennessee and the eastern Valley witness below normal snowfall
4. Tennessee has its first ice storm since 2015
5. Everyone in the state receives at least 1" of snow this winter

[ Guests cannot view attachments ]
.

Offline Clarksville Snowman

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,332
  • Location: Woodlawn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2033
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #58 on: September 27, 2020, 11:56:29 PM »
Snowfall forecast for the state. It's probably doo-doo, but whatever. As with sports, I have fun making weather predictions.

We have a weak to possibly moderate La Nina that may strengthen the detested SE ridge, as analogs suggest. That will create some edging for good snows to our state's north and northwest, but with some buckling in the ridge and a favorable storm track (increased precipitation), I believe West Tennessee- especially NW Tennessee- could really benefit from this. Places like southern Middle Tennessee and the southern East TN Valley will too often be on the warm side of the storm tracks to witness snowfall. I think cities like Chattanooga could pick up some minor snow accumulation from an Alberta Clipper, but with a warm winter in the forecast for our region, it might require a combination of sufficient snowpack to our northwest and a -AO to create snowfall in Tennessee's southern reaches.

Bold predictions
1. Nashville gets the most snow of Tennessee's big four cities
2. Northwest Tennessee receives above average snowfall
3. Southern Middle Tennessee and the eastern Valley witness below normal snowfall
4. Tennessee has its first ice storm since 2015
5. Everyone in the state receives at least 1" of snow this winter

(Attachment Link)
I will take the 12 inches of snow for Clarksville and run right now! ::popcorn::::fingerscrossed::::snowman::

Offline Coach B

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,138
  • Location: Marshall County
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 248
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #59 on: September 28, 2020, 07:26:31 AM »
With cold air lurking, I would think that even with an overall mild winter, we could do nicely at times. the CFS2 is actually cold from the central plains into the east which def fits the 2010-11 and 1995-96 analogs.

I appreciate all of the winter thoughts. I don't really know anything, but am fine with the idea of an overall mild winter as long as we get a couple weeks in the deep freeze with some snow. Seems like at least some potential for that during the favored deep winter prime time. The older I get the more I enjoy a warm Nov-Dec and March.

 

* Recent Posts

Hurricane Zeta
by Eric
[Today at 05:32:37 PM]
October 2020
by JayCee
[Today at 04:56:39 PM]
Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
by Coach B
[Yesterday at 09:35:20 PM]
2020 Tropical Season Outlook
by dwagner88
[Yesterday at 09:12:02 PM]
Fall 2020: Because Fall Comes Before Winter
by Greyhound
[October 22, 2020, 10:58:15 AM]

Advertisement