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Author Topic: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021  (Read 8181 times)

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Offline Coach B

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #90 on: October 13, 2020, 08:08:50 AM »
Most of yaíll seem to forget that late December 2017 through late January 2018 was cold as a well diggers butt! I honestly donít wish to see it that cold for that long again for some time. The duck hunting sure was great.

Good point. I think for many, as with other recent cold shots, it failed to produce significant snowfall. Therefore, it gets forgotten or labeled as annoying and wasted cold.

Offline TNHunter

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #91 on: October 13, 2020, 08:21:19 AM »
Good point. I think for many, as with other recent cold shots, it failed to produce significant snowfall. Therefore, it gets forgotten or labeled as annoying and wasted cold.

Could be, here in NW TN we scored big time on snow with that one.  Best I remember we missed about 2 weeks straight of school (I teach).

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #92 on: October 13, 2020, 11:04:38 AM »
Scored on that one also. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Offline gcbama

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #93 on: October 13, 2020, 11:21:25 AM »
Good point. I think for many, as with other recent cold shots, it failed to produce significant snowfall. Therefore, it gets forgotten or labeled as annoying and wasted cold.

It was VERY cold, new years eve was frigid!!!!

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #94 on: October 13, 2020, 11:52:35 AM »
Scored on that one also. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
got close to 4 inches snow ⛄️ that one myself
Come on severe wx season...

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #95 on: October 13, 2020, 08:56:12 PM »
If you like winter.  Donít look at latest euro weeklies long ranger...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #96 on: October 14, 2020, 11:12:42 AM »
If you like winter.  Donít look at latest euro weeklies long ranger...

The last time it showed a cold LR forecast in the weeklies was Fall of 2015. We all know how that turned out. The Euro- even its ops model- has a hard time with any cold air past 7 days.

Offline TNHunter

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #97 on: October 14, 2020, 11:52:49 AM »
The last time it showed a cold LR forecast in the weeklies was Fall of 2015. We all know how that turned out. The Euro- even its ops model- has a hard time with any cold air past 7 days.

Yep I wouldn't put any stock in any of them.  Watch the 15 day forecast and even it can be way wrong.  Put 10 different winter scenarios on a slip of paper and draw them out of a hat and you'll have about as good of odds as predicting what the winter weather will be.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #98 on: October 14, 2020, 03:29:07 PM »
Good point. I think for many, as with other recent cold shots, it failed to produce significant snowfall. Therefore, it gets forgotten or labeled as annoying and wasted cold.
Yep. Cold and bone dry here. I set my front yard on fire with my new year's eve fireworks that year. It was about 17 degrees and very windy.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25Ē

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #99 on: October 14, 2020, 08:14:17 PM »
If you like winter.  Donít look at latest euro weeklies long ranger...

Crap, all hope is lost now.
.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #100 on: October 14, 2020, 09:01:05 PM »
Crap, all hope is lost now.
yep.... never dismiss the euro .
Come on severe wx season...

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #101 on: October 15, 2020, 06:32:51 AM »
yep.... never dismiss the euro .

Let's cancel winter. I'm already looking forward to spring.
.

Offline snowdog

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #102 on: October 15, 2020, 08:42:05 AM »
Let's cancel winter. I'm already looking forward to spring.

I'm not even tarping my pool this winter, we'll be swimming in January. Thanks, Euro.

Offline Curt

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #103 on: October 15, 2020, 08:43:26 AM »
yep.... never dismiss the euro .
yep.... never dismiss the euro .
yep.... never dismiss the euro .

I assume you actually mean the euro seasonals-  vs the weeklies. I do give credence to the the euro operational but anyone should be skeptical of seasonal and weeklies. Theyíre bleak at best and always point to above normal temps after 2 weeks.

Offline nrgJeff

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #104 on: October 15, 2020, 09:34:55 AM »
I like the StormNine charts on page 6 and page 5. Just getting caught up. Even if December is not wall to wall cold, it's our best chance at some winter action. Blowtorch February is actually reasonable too. Note that it only takes one just right bowling ball to save a season though.

Looking to spring, I confess I also like severe wx. Bruce you have a friend here, lol! Back to that in a minute. First, some thoughts on Easter 2020.

I hate tornadoes in town. My heart broke when a Chattanooga 4-year old succumbed to his critical tornado injuries last spring. I'm a dad too and I can't imagine. For about 10 days (and we had two more potential set-ups) I was not into it at all. I kept watching radar and surface charts, praying the boundary stays south. It did both times.

However two weeks later the severe wx bug was back. One Thursday I was super tentative, still not ready. Then on a Saturday we had a low-top day with great visibility. I went out. Saw nothing, but it just felt good to get my mind back. Never went to the Plains due to a poor May pattern and covid concerns. However that's usually a thing for me.

So, La Nina? Peer reviewed research consensus is little correlation. However loosening the statistical requirements, I think we have all seen active La Nina years. They can also be active in transition. Still cool Central Pac. Warm right near South America. Trans Nino Index +TNI is one way to measure that. Could it happen this year? Perhaps.

So I feel apprehension in high risk days or when cities are impacted. However I do chase and I enjoy thunderstorms. Prefer a late May subtle ENH out on the Plains over MDT Dixie Alley.

VERY IMPORTANT: Never look at your phone while driving. Best to chase in pairs when the driver ONLY drives. If solo I pull all the way over and stop to look at charts. No exceptions!
« Last Edit: October 15, 2020, 09:39:49 AM by nrgJeff »
Jeff H
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Thoughts are my own.

 

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