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Author Topic: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021  (Read 8174 times)

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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #75 on: October 07, 2020, 10:50:10 AM »
One commonality I am seeing in these forcasts is western TN being on the edges of above normal and below normal temps.  The makes me think a SE ridge being present in some for and arctic cold fronts are going to get hung up on the west end of the state.  Three words - Ice Ice Baby



(word to  your mother  ::shaking_finger::  ::rofl:: )
ice and severe wx potential will be two big things watch ...
Come on severe wx season...

Online StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #76 on: October 07, 2020, 12:23:14 PM »
It has been awhile since the I-44 corrdior in Missouri was hit by an ice storm I think that comes to an end this winter.

Could there be an additional threat further southeast that would depend on the SE ridging at the time. 

Lets not forget that the 2nd worst ice storm in the past 50 years for Tennessee occurred in a much warmer than average La-Nina winter.   

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #77 on: October 07, 2020, 04:39:58 PM »
One of my predictions for the winter is we will see a statewide ice storm for the first time since 2015
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Online StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #78 on: October 08, 2020, 11:03:02 AM »
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X means unfavorable for sustained cold and a check mark means favorable.   

Some of these are starting to become trends as we head further into the cool season.   

Online StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #79 on: October 08, 2020, 11:07:28 AM »
1954, 1988, 2007, and 2008 are starting to appear on this analog pattern list a lot. 


Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #80 on: October 08, 2020, 12:38:17 PM »
With all the talk here about ice it's probably time to tune up my generator and gather some more firewood for this year. I was a student at UT when Knoxville got the one in '96 and the university actually closed for multiple days. Much of the city was without power for days and while campus never lost power it was still a strange stretch of days. We certainly don't need one of those again, but 2020 being 2020 we'll probably be iced in without power for Christmas...

Offline bugalou

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #81 on: October 08, 2020, 05:09:06 PM »
All the progress models have made are great and credit to the people who made them happen and get better.

That said, I'd give up my left [RADIO EDIT] for a surprise winter storm that over produces this year.  It's been so long since we had something like this happen here near Memphis.  Last I can remember here was NYE 2000 going into 2001 when we got 4"-6" from a northern stream short wave that greatly over produced.  It had been cold all December too so it stuck instantly even on the roads.

Also FWIW, if I remember correctly the first winter after I moved from southern NJ back home here, the city I lived at up there got a surprise 2'+ storm and I was so mad.  One of my co workers there measured 31 inches of snow in his yard.  Now keep in mind where I lived got more snow chances than Memphis on average, but the actual amounts were not great due to proximity to the ocean, the biggest snow storm I witnessed while living there was around 8".  We had some heart breaking Miller B setups too where 1'+ was proded that ended in literal dustings.  ::bangingheadintowall::

I don't need 30"+ but" a good 5"+ event without a week of model chasing anxiety would be so nice.

Offline Clay

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #82 on: October 11, 2020, 05:33:51 PM »
Interesting writeup by the WaPo on the winter of '59-'60. Knoxville logged 57, yes you read that correctly, 57" of snow that season; Nashville with a mere 38". Obviously the modern day arctic is far too warm to support sustained cold air of that magnitude at this latitude but in the grand scheme of long term climatology, it's hard to believe that happened only 60 years ago.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/02/22/sixty-years-ago-after-gentle-start-winter-stormed-back-south/

Offline snowdog

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #83 on: October 11, 2020, 06:56:43 PM »
Interesting writeup by the WaPo on the winter of '59-'60. Knoxville logged 57, yes you read that correctly, 57" of snow that season; Nashville with a mere 38". Obviously the modern day arctic is far too warm to support sustained cold air of that magnitude at this latitude but in the grand scheme of long term climatology, it's hard to believe that happened only 60 years ago.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/02/22/sixty-years-ago-after-gentle-start-winter-stormed-back-south/

In the last 15 years we've had a few events that were a few degrees away from being major events. I think it is just a luck thing combined with us being in a warmer period this reducing our luck even more.

Online StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #84 on: October 11, 2020, 07:33:05 PM »
The negative is that we are warmer and with this warmer state the I-40 corridor has become the I-20 corridor of the 1920s to mid-1990s and the I-40 corridor of that time is now I-64 if not even I-70 in places.   

The positive is that with increased moisture content although our winter storms have been reduced the ones that do form would be more likely to become warning type events and therefore more significant. 

Luck plays a role as well just ask Memphis to Jackson to Nashville to Lebanon back in 2013-14 or Southeast Missouri during the winters of 2014-15 and 2015-16.     

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #85 on: October 11, 2020, 08:18:35 PM »
The negative is that we are warmer and with this warmer state the I-40 corridor has become the I-20 corridor of the 1920s to mid-1990s and the I-40 corridor of that time is now I-64 if not even I-70 in places.   

The positive is that with increased moisture content although our winter storms have been reduced the ones that do form would be more likely to become warning type events and therefore more significant. 

Luck plays a role as well just ask Memphis to Jackson to Nashville to Lebanon back in 2013-14 or Southeast Missouri during the winters of 2014-15 and 2015-16.   
within the next 10 years, i40 will become i10, sad but true
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JHart

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #86 on: October 12, 2020, 09:20:04 AM »
within the next 10 years, i40 will become i10, sad but true
Well, at least I won't have to keep dragging my forty-year-old hibiscus trees into the garage every October.
Hire the left-handed --- its fun to watch them write.

Offline Beth

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #87 on: October 12, 2020, 10:37:39 AM »
Well, at least I won't have to keep dragging my forty-year-old hibiscus trees into the garage every October.
We have at 40 plants we have bring into our greenhouse. At least we have a golf cart that the back seat lays down for a place to haul them in.  I have a rubber tree that is 40 yrs old. We have to trim all the plants back to get them all in.  But it is a nice place to sit in the winter with our hibiscus and other flowers that bloom. 😊

Offline TNHunter

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #88 on: October 12, 2020, 04:52:17 PM »
Most of ya’ll seem to forget that late December 2017 through late January 2018 was cold as a well diggers butt! I honestly don’t wish to see it that cold for that long again for some time. The duck hunting sure was great.

Offline Nash_LSU

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #89 on: October 13, 2020, 07:38:27 AM »
Was that the year where it was almost 0 degrees on New Years?

 

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