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Author Topic: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021  (Read 48796 times)

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Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #555 on: February 18, 2021, 06:48:36 PM »
Unless the 26th storm comes roaring the overall very active severe weather season in the Fall and Winter really was a dud.  Yes, there were two deadly tornadoes in the south, but you didn't really have that major multi deadly/significant tornado outbreak that reaches into Arkansas and Tennessee you may expect to see in a La-Nina cool season.   

With that being said that doesn't mean that we will dodge things in the spring.  With an expected -PNA pattern and fading La-Nina you always have to be on the lookout. 

Offline JayCee

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #556 on: February 19, 2021, 10:32:07 AM »
I'm hoping the SER that kept the worst of the Arctic air to the west, keeps its mojo going into spring and deflects the worst of tornado season to the northwest.  Bruce, you can keep it over your way, please. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #557 on: February 20, 2021, 08:53:01 AM »
Interestingly enough my 2019-2020 winter forecast would have verified pretty nicely for this winter.  I was just one winter too late. 

Offline Bruce

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #558 on: February 20, 2021, 09:43:12 AM »
Unless the 26th storm comes roaring the overall very active severe weather season in the Fall and Winter really was a dud.  Yes, there were two deadly tornadoes in the south, but you didn't really have that major multi deadly/significant tornado outbreak that reaches into Arkansas and Tennessee you may expect to see in a La-Nina cool season.   

With that being said that doesn't mean that we will dodge things in the spring.  With an expected -PNA pattern and fading La-Nina you always have to be on the lookout.
top two analog for this spring are still 1974 2011. No explanation needed .
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline mempho

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #559 on: February 20, 2021, 01:17:21 PM »
top two analog for this spring are still 1974 2011. No explanation needed .
I'd concur but that probably means it gets cranking in April.... Also, this has been a pattern slightly west of 2011, so the hot zone could be further west.

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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #560 on: February 20, 2021, 05:39:43 PM »
I'd concur but that probably means it gets cranking in April.... Also, this has been a pattern slightly west of 2011, so the hot zone could be further west.

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I would probably think that every state that can get significant severe weather will at least have one if not 2-3 significant events this year. Significant being defined by either having one EF-3+ tornado, multiple EF-2+ tornadoes, or a widespread derecho/QLCS event with widespread damaging winds.  Think about 2008 and 2011 there really wasn't an area that was dodged in either of those years.

The bigger question is how long does said severe weather season last.  At least for us, I could see some reoccurring cold shots that may keep us relatively safe in March and you could either great a strong southeastern ridge that shifts things to the Plains by Mid-May or a strong Central USA ridge that causes the whole country to go dry by Mid-May.  OR  We could see this pattern hold on like we did in 2011 till the end of May.  We could be under the gun for 3-4 weeks or a solid 2 to even close to 3 months. The longer we are under the gun the more threats we have to deal with.   

 

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #561 on: February 20, 2021, 10:02:42 PM »
Winter may or may not be over, I will enjoy a few warm days and see if the end of feb or the first week of march can deliver any more winter events. After we get to mid march it's time to be bring on spring. For sure by the 20th of march most significant winter weather events are well to our north almost all time. But the first week of march especially can deliver a good one now and then. ::popcorn::  ::snowman::

Offline stayrose38

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #562 on: February 20, 2021, 10:32:05 PM »
Winter may or may not be over, I will enjoy a few warm days and see if the end of feb or the first week of march can deliver any more winter events. After we get to mid march it's time to be bring on spring. For sure by the 20th of march most significant winter weather events are well to our north almost all time. But the first week of march especially can deliver a good one now and then. ::popcorn::  ::snowman::

Nah, March is always iffy. You can't expect a good snow in early or late March.... late Feb is the end date, and that's if the pattern is already primed for  low latitude storms.. Even '93 had a late Feb precursor storm. I never give up until late April anyway. If you're going to chase anomalous snow storms after Feb, go for the Big Dogs. If you like early Spring just admit it. 80s can stay until May.

Offline mempho

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #563 on: February 21, 2021, 09:26:09 AM »
March 10th thru 12th. 

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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline Curt

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #564 on: February 21, 2021, 10:50:48 AM »
Kinda interesting with the MJO wanting to go to cold phases 8. Some modeling is picking back up on another arctic air mass with huge BN anomalies the first week of March.

Offline mempho

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #565 on: February 21, 2021, 12:41:08 PM »
Kinda interesting with the MJO wanting to go to cold phases 8. Some modeling is picking back up on another arctic air mass with huge BN anomalies the first week of March.
There will be much complaining but I don't believe we are done. 

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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline Mr. Golf

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #566 on: February 21, 2021, 04:30:46 PM »
There will be much complaining but I don't believe we are done. 

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I think we will see a few more colder days, but big winter storms, not likely imo. Maybe ULL and they can produce alot of snow sometimes

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #567 on: February 21, 2021, 05:36:13 PM »
Stayrose 38 I don't understand your comment at all. That's what I was saying, I have lived here my entire life I know how the weather shakes around here. Most March's are snowless, but we have had some big ones in March and they have mostly been the first week of march and USUALLY the latest you can usually expect a major snowstorm is mid march. I could care less about a small snow now, I really didn't understand your comment quite frankly you said you can't expect a good snow in march which I agree with but in Tennessee it's hard to expect a good snow anytime until it's at your door. Then you say you don't give up till april. Kind of goes against what you was saying about not expecting snow past Febuary. If you ever followed my post you would know I love all seasons. Should one expect a march snow, no. But is it possible, yes. And a whole lot more possible than April. And yes I like spring, what does that have to do with anything. ::snowman::
« Last Edit: February 21, 2021, 05:44:10 PM by Clarksville Snowman »

Offline gcbama

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #568 on: February 22, 2021, 01:59:44 PM »
Well I think a lot of us have nothing to complain about if you are a snow fan....most of us saw really a very good snow total this year....I was around 9 inches of snow this year with another inch of sleet which used to be my seasonal average over a decade ago so I am very content this year.

 If a surprise snow comes that will be welcome , not expecting it though.

Offline Crockett

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #569 on: February 22, 2021, 02:20:10 PM »
The NWS officially measured 13.4" of accumulation this season in Oneida. That number is too low, for whatever reason (the NWS's snow measurements here are highly suspect and always have been). I recorded more than 20" in my back yard, making this the snowiest winter since 2010-2011. I'm certainly not going to complain. But I'm ready for spring.

As I reflect back on this winter, it was really good for most of Tennessee, and it also just missed out on being a truly epic winter. Speaking specifically for my backyard, if we had gotten a share of East TN's white Christmas (which we almost did) and if the pattern just ended had been a little further east, we would've had our most iconic winter since 1984-1985. Obviously there have been some iconic individual storms since then (1993, 1994 and 1998 at the top of the list), but in terms of just an overall snowy winter from start to finish, there are only a few that have stood out in the past 20 years or so
« Last Edit: February 22, 2021, 02:21:50 PM by Crockett »

 

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