Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021

[schneitzeit]

Starting see April analogs of 2006 and 2011 come used commonly. Both were quite intense months. But severe should end late April first week May im seeing ...

Could you cite sources?

[snowdog]

Current US snow depth map is pretty amazing, in a bad way for snow lovers, for the middle of January.

[WXHD]

Current US snow depth map is pretty amazing, in a bad way for snow lovers, for the middle of January.

It seems Texas has been the big winner so far. And that ain

[Hank W]

Some good thoughts from Todd Yakoubian at KATV out of Little Rock.

https://www.arkansasweatherblog.com/post/my-state-of-the-winter-address-1

[Bruce]

Could you cite sources?

top dogs all over it on American weather . Severe wx should rock this spring ...

[Dyersburg Weather]

The system on the 28th is inching close to a chance of snow. Something to watch. The GFS continues to have a bomb in the long range.

[Curt]

Pattern looks eerily similar to 2008 (also a west based moderate La Ni

[Nashville_Wx]

top dogs all over it on American weather . Severe wx should rock this spring ...

Ahhhhhhhh

[StormNine]

Ahhhhhhhh

That -PNA severe weather pattern could lead to big snows out West in the late March-April timeframe if you want to look at the bright side of that.

[Curt]

My prediction is a greater than normal chance for severe come April. My prediction is that Bruce will over predict severe for every  system from now until June. And then in the fall again too.

[Bruce]

My prediction is a greater than normal chance for severe come April. My prediction is that Bruce will over predict severe for every  system from now until June. And then in the fall again too.

least like my chances curt. Should be fun to track . I may actually get to knock the dust off my noaa weather radio and get to use it this season ...

[Nashville_Wx]

least like my chances curt. Should be fun to track . I may actually get to knock the dust off my noaa weather radio and get to use it this season ...

If you least like those chances, what chances do you not least like more?

[Nashville_Wx]

That -PNA severe weather pattern could lead to big snows out West in the late March-April timeframe if you want to look at the bright side of that.

Well, we will just have to wait till we hear what americanwx has to say. Then brucie can relay it over to us.

[schneitzeit]

Winter certainly isn't over, but I believe we can agree that it is coming to a close, and the majority of us will not see more snowfall until next season.

With that in mind, time to review the predictions I posted in September. Let's see how I did:

Snowfall forecast for the state. It's probably doo-doo, but whatever. As with sports, I have fun making weather predictions.

We have a weak to possibly moderate La Nina that may strengthen the detested SE ridge, as analogs suggest. That will create some edging for good snows to our state's north and northwest, but with some buckling in the ridge and a favorable storm track (increased precipitation), I believe West Tennessee- especially NW Tennessee- could really benefit from this. Places like southern Middle Tennessee and the southern East TN Valley will too often be on the warm side of the storm tracks to witness snowfall. I think cities like Chattanooga could pick up some minor snow accumulation from an Alberta Clipper, but with a warm winter in the forecast for our region, it might require a combination of sufficient snowpack to our northwest and a -AO to create snowfall in Tennessee's southern reaches.

Bold predictions
1. Nashville gets the most snow of Tennessee's big four cities
2. Northwest Tennessee receives above average snowfall
3. Southern Middle Tennessee and the eastern Valley witness below normal snowfall
4. Tennessee has its first ice storm since 2015
5. Everyone in the state receives at least 1" of snow this winter

1. Unless a major snowstorm in March were to bring the lion's share right to Nashville, I was dead wrong about this one. Memphis wins the winter, followed by Nashville and Knoxville who are roughly neck-and-neck with two moderate snowstorms in February and December, respectively. I believe Knoxville may have finished with more than Nashville (again, it's only Feb. 18th, and we may not be out of the woods yet.)

2. Short answer: Solid prediction. It took until yesterday for this to happen, and the above-average snowfall came in 4 days, but it was above-average nonetheless. I outlined the SER-enhanced by the Nina as well as a storm track that would favor NW TN, and this came true this week. If it were not for these two storms this week, this winter would have been a zero for NW TN.

3. Wrong on the first part- Southern Middle actually cashed in nicely this winter. Correct on the second part: the Eastern TN river valley got screwed by the SER. Once that ridge developed, it was over for Chattanooga and Knoxville. This could only change if East Tennessee scores a March surprise, which we all know is never out of question.

4. Nailed it. Proud of myself on this one.

5. I think I'm close here, but I don't believe Chattanooga and Cleveland have received 1". Would have to rely on a March surprise for this prediction to be correct.


Will soon repost my Tennessee snowfall prediction map (got deleted from the original post) and compare with what we have for the season. I botched Southern Middle but didn't do too bad elsewhere. I also undershot what Memphis received.

[StormNine]

I was right on the 2 to 4 week period of legit winter weather (minus SE TN).  I was pretty wrong on the timing.  I was a month too early, I was thinking January and not February.  That was probably the only thing I was right about this winter.

My overall cold northern plains and warm to very warm Desert SW and southeast went up in flames especially when the Dakotas went 12-14 degrees above average in January and the unexpected -NAO formed keeping the southeast more moderate.     

With that being said this is probably going to be the coldest or one of the coldest La-Nina February's.  Sustained cold in Feb in a La-Nina is a pretty rare thing. 1968 is the only La Nina Feb that was probably this legit cold.  Even February of 1918 in the most epic La-Nina winter on record was not solidly cold.  Analogs were proven to be not that useful for the 3rd straight winter.