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Author Topic: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021  (Read 40493 times)

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Online BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #450 on: December 23, 2020, 08:16:50 AM »
The euro ensembles are pretty much on board with a negative nao negative ao and now showing positive pna throughout most January ...epo looks get to neutral least ... nice looking snow storm showing back Oklahoma longer range by the way ...
Come on severe wx season...

Online BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #451 on: December 23, 2020, 11:28:40 AM »
Also note... this La Niña May try to give one last push as trade winds look get active in the western enso region. shouldn start to  see some cooling in the 3.4 region as also in the 4 region appears . Some things may start to get little interesting  severe weather wise come February ... we see
Come on severe wx season...

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #452 on: December 23, 2020, 07:19:39 PM »
Also note... this La Niña May try to give one last push as trade winds look get active in the western enso region. shouldn start to  see some cooling in the 3.4 region as also in the 4 region appears . Some things may start to get little interesting  severe weather wise come February ... we see

Late February (there always seems to be a threat on or around the 24th in these types of winters) has always been a potential timeframe to watch for severe weather this winter.  Until then, unless you get a super dynamic system it is very likely just not going to happen.   

Until then our +EPO/-NAO combo will carry us through with our El-Nino ish like winter.  If the polar vortex does a displacement (it very likely won't split) then things get pretty fun for 3-5 weeks.  If it doesn't we probably have a January-February period that is actually probably going to be pretty similar to our two past Super El-Nino years (1998 and 2016).  We do appear to have a nice split flow pattern so it won't be a question of if but a question of when a potentially big storm with a winter threat forms and of course a question of who gets involved.   

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #453 on: December 23, 2020, 07:20:50 PM »
The consistent -NAO being there pretty much ensures that we won't really ever torch at least probably through most of January, even if things aren't as cold as we would like.   

Offline Clint

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #454 on: December 24, 2020, 09:08:44 AM »
The 0Z Euro has a nice snow for Tennessee right after the New Years. Let's see if it holds.








Online BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #455 on: December 24, 2020, 09:24:43 AM »
0z euro end of run... solid 6 inches snow some little higher
Come on severe wx season...

Offline snowdog

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #456 on: December 24, 2020, 10:25:37 AM »
Long range Euro keeps looking good. Nice statewide hit at the end of the run.

Online BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #457 on: December 24, 2020, 12:28:12 PM »
Just wow at all that energy digging in southwest on euro . Not finished running yet., but could be a big run for the midsouth coming here
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #458 on: December 24, 2020, 01:04:39 PM »
Euro  ::rofl:: Looks like sleet is messing with these totals.

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Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #459 on: December 24, 2020, 01:07:32 PM »
That run of the euro says get ready for the new year snow lovers in Tennessee! ::fingerscrossed:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

Offline JayCee

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #460 on: December 24, 2020, 02:05:50 PM »
Euro  ::rofl:: Looks like sleet is messing with these totals.

(Attachment Link)

I'll gladly take 25 inches of sleet.   ;D
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Matthew

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #461 on: December 24, 2020, 02:13:33 PM »
🤣🤣🤣Well the way 2020 has gone why not.  I would believe it to be an historic rain storm.  That much sleet well obviously would be catastrophic.  So thankfully that’s not happening but wait .... it is 2020🤷🏻‍♂️

Online BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #462 on: December 24, 2020, 02:14:56 PM »
Euro  ::rofl:: Looks like sleet is messing with these totals.

(Attachment Link)
strong signal of a big storm system showing up on most models next week towards new years ... could get very interesting .
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Matthew

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #463 on: December 24, 2020, 02:15:23 PM »
How have the verification scores been lately on these models?  Any improvement?

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #464 on: December 24, 2020, 02:16:10 PM »
That 25 inches of snow equals about 5 inches of sleet.

 

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