Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021

[BRUCE]

If the polar vortex wasn't being a turd we would have a shot at below-average temperatures, but with the main ridging to our west and northwest, we should avoid the widespread torch temperatures we saw in 1998 and last year.   

that polar vortex is on steroids ...

[schneitzeit]

going by latest temps map I observed

I'm still not sure what you saw that I missed, but this is the latest EPS run by Dec 1:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=T850a&runtime=2020112112&fh=240

I would have posted an image, but the site will not allow me to at the present time.

[schneitzeit]

So shoot me, but, some of us might darn well be looking at our first winter event at the end of the month.

Stay tuned. 

[BRUCE]

So shoot me, but, some of us might darn well be looking at our first winter event at the end of the month.

Stay tuned. 

i can see the highest elevations of east tennessee maybe

[Clint]

 CMC 

[schneitzeit]

Since I'm painfully wish-casting some snow, here's Bruce's version of what's to come 

Thanksgiving Week: temps 60s.... possible severe

Nov 29 - Dec 5: temps 50s 60s... up to 70s by end of week... severe outbreak sw round texas plains area

Dec 6 - Dec 12: temps way above avg... humid... dry in se coast due to se ridge effect

Dec 13 - Dec 19: big severe outbreak... cold front moves thru mid south.... lot instability in ark. miss and west tn...

Christmas Week: ice storm for whole state of tenn and ky... then back to above normal temps... 70 on christmas day...

[schneitzeit]

CMC is really blasting the cold into the Ohio Valley and Upper MS River region. GFS, not so much, but does show a hard freeze around Nov 30-Dec 1

[BRUCE]

CMC is really blasting the cold into the Ohio Valley and Upper MS River region. GFS, not so much, but does show a hard freeze around Nov 30-Dec 1

cmc is cold bias . But I think we see our first hard freeze early December.  Per euro

[gcbama]

cmc is cold bias . But I think we see our first hard freeze early December.  Per euro

first hard freeze? I have had temps at 27 and 28 about 3 times already ? whats going on out there in west tn?

[schneitzeit]

first hard freeze? I have had temps at 27 and 28 about 3 times already ? whats going on out there in west tn?

I have not dropped below 30 at my location yet. It would be my first hard freeze of the year as well.

Also, I thought your response to Bruce was Bruce responding to his own post for a second there 

[BALLPARK]

Since I'm painfully wish-casting some snow, here's Bruce's version of what's to come 

Thanksgiving Week: temps 60s.... possible severe

Nov 29 - Dec 5: temps 50s 60s... up to 70s by end of week... severe outbreak sw round texas plains area

Dec 6 - Dec 12: temps way above avg... humid... dry in se coast due to se ridge effect

Dec 13 - Dec 19: big severe outbreak... cold front moves thru mid south.... lot instability in ark. miss and west tn...

Christmas Week: ice storm for whole state of tenn and ky... then back to above normal temps... 70 on christmas day...

Bruce you still predicting 50s-60s-70s for Nov 29 - Dec 5

[BRUCE]

Bruce you still predicting 50s-60s-70s for Nov 29 - Dec 5

high temps appear to be around 50 to uppers 50s range for highs . Could see some upper 40s for day or two for the plateau region.

[StormNine]

What a classic La-Nina like, wait a minute below average or at least temps in the SE, building heights in the northern plains, active subtropical jet, +PNA, who poured this Nino into my La Niņa cake mix

[schneitzeit]

What a classic La-Nina like, wait a minute below average or at least temps in the SE, building heights in the northern plains, active subtropical jet, +PNA, who poured this Nino into my La Niņa cake mix

 

[BRUCE]

What a classic La-Nina like, wait a minute below average or at least temps in the SE, building heights in the northern plains, active subtropical jet, +PNA, who poured this Nino into my La Niņa cake mix

lookout... get ready for the 40 degree rains again for least temporarily.