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Author Topic: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021  (Read 20356 times)

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Offline Curt

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Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #330 on: November 17, 2020, 03:43:29 PM »
Really nice and detailed winter outlook from Griteater at American Weather Forum. He goes with a mix of 1988-89 and 1893-94. Both were overall above average but punctuated by some severe cold spells and a couple of ice/snow threats. The February 1894 period ended with brutal cold temps and a huge snowstorm. I don't recall from their records on NCDC database that severe was a big factor.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S-f_HQdrNYZkrRw_6YhkFCkASa0WAZpa/view

21 pages BUT the gist is something I agree with:

Quote
I forecast a predominant +AO/+NAO winter combined with a North Pacific pattern that is  mixed, featuring a suppressed N Pac ridge at times keeping cold air bottled up to the north (target:  December), and a more poleward N Pac ridge at other times allowing cold air to spill south into the  lower 48 (target: February).

If you peep a little further on the NCDC website, March 1984 was anomalously warm month for the first 3 weeks followed by a severe late season cold spell and snow- which apparently did a number on the growing season.
« Last Edit: November 17, 2020, 04:09:06 PM by Curt »

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #331 on: November 17, 2020, 04:22:12 PM »
Really nice and detailed winter outlook from Griteater at American Weather Forum. He goes with a mix of 1988-89 and 1893-94. Both were overall above average but punctuated by some severe cold spells and a couple of ice/snow threats. The February 1894 period ended with brutal cold temps and a huge snowstorm. I don't recall from their records on NCDC database that severe was a big factor.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S-f_HQdrNYZkrRw_6YhkFCkASa0WAZpa/view

21 pages BUT the gist is something I agree with:

If you peep a little further on the NCDC website, March 1984 was anomalously warm month for the first 3 weeks followed by a severe late season cold spell and snow- which apparently did a number on the growing season.
lol. Sounds like going against the grain
Come on severe wx season...

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #332 on: November 17, 2020, 04:43:09 PM »
Really nice and detailed winter outlook from Griteater at American Weather Forum. He goes with a mix of 1988-89 and 1893-94. Both were overall above average but punctuated by some severe cold spells and a couple of ice/snow threats. The February 1894 period ended with brutal cold temps and a huge snowstorm. I don't recall from their records on NCDC database that severe was a big factor.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S-f_HQdrNYZkrRw_6YhkFCkASa0WAZpa/view

21 pages BUT the gist is something I agree with:

If you peep a little further on the NCDC website, March 1984 was anomalously warm month for the first 3 weeks followed by a severe late season cold spell and snow- which apparently did a number on the growing season.

1988-89 had severe weather.  The Brentwood/Franklin tornado on Christmas Eve and then an F-4 hit somewhere in SW Indiana in January.  1893-94 not sure about.   1988-89 was very similar to a more subdued 2007-08 as far as the general pattern goes.   

There is an avenue for that type of winter described above to occur especially if a strat warming event occurs in January and helps send the PV down.  Not sure if I personally buy it, but in the long-range game there is a lot that can go right or wrong either way.   


Offline Curt

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #333 on: November 17, 2020, 04:46:25 PM »
1988-89 had severe weather.  The Brentwood/Franklin tornado on Christmas Eve and then an F-4 hit somewhere in SW Indiana in January.  1893-94 not sure about.   1988-89 was very similar to a more subdued 2007-08 as far as the general pattern goes.   

There is an avenue for that type of winter described above to occur especially if a strat warming event occurs in January and helps send the PV down.  Not sure if I personally buy it, but in the long-range game there is a lot that can go right or wrong either way.
You’re right about those for sure. Although they seemed to be loners if I recall rather than broads scale. I was mostly looking into the following spring seasons.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #334 on: November 17, 2020, 04:47:22 PM »
lol. Sounds like going against the grain

Maybe, but sometimes going against the grain works.  There was a guy who went against the grain in 2018-19 and was laughed at it and his outlook was one of the only to verify.   A well-timed Strat Warming event could make his outlook verify nicely and our 1998-99 mixed with 2017-18 outlook not look as good.

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #335 on: November 17, 2020, 04:51:33 PM »
You’re right about those for sure. Although they seemed to be loners if I recall rather than broads scale. I was mostly looking into the following spring seasons.

1988 was also a drought year with a stout central US Ridge acting as a nice roadblock which is another factor that heavily influences severe weather season.  It is also why severe weather hasn't been quite that bad this fall season despite the unseasonably warm and moist air source and growing La-Nina.   

It does show that not all La-Nina springs mean twister land especially if you do get that ridging in the middle of the country.  With that being said Nina's that follow Nino's do have the legacy of having above-average severe weather seasons.  While an intoxicated Bruce dancing with tornadoes is far from a 100% chance there is that above-average risk.   

Offline Curt

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #336 on: November 17, 2020, 04:54:17 PM »
Maybe, but sometimes going against the grain works.  There was a guy who went against the grain in 2018-19 and was laughed at it and his outlook was one of the only to verify.   A well-timed Strat Warming event could make his outlook verify nicely and our 1998-99 mixed with 2017-18 outlook not look as good.
His overall forecast is warm which really isn’t against the grain. He’s smart to realize that most La Niña winters react to the position of the Pac ridge position - and can easily allow cold air to spill down into the lower 48. I think it’s a smart forecast.

Bruce means against the grain for not calling for multiple tornado outbreaks. There is always a risk with La Niña but previous data shows it not that pat.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #337 on: November 17, 2020, 05:08:04 PM »
His overall forecast is warm which really isn’t against the grain. He’s smart to realize that most La Niña winters react to the position of the Pac ridge position - and can easily allow cold air to spill down into the lower 48. I think it’s a smart forecast.

Bruce means against the grain for not calling for multiple tornado outbreaks. There is always a risk with La Niña but previous data shows it not that pat.

The grain forecast is warm to very-warm with above-average tornado potential or at least what is mainstream in the weather land.  Most aren't as aggressive as Bruce about the severe weather part of course. The winters of 1998-99 and 2007-08 seem to be the default for some folks in weather forum land as to what a strong La-Nina is supposed to be like.  Kinda like Nirvana is the default to what Alternative Rock is even though there are many flavors of it.     

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #338 on: November 17, 2020, 05:10:44 PM »
To be honest, I think if this winter stinks it up don't blame the Nina, it will be the MJO, the strong Polar Vortex, or the Pacific ridge sets too far to the west.  We can't pin it all on the ENSO because if we could then we wouldn't have had two crappy winters following a favorable west-based weak El-Nino series.   

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #339 on: November 17, 2020, 06:19:14 PM »
I really hope we don't have any severe weather.
.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #340 on: November 19, 2020, 01:32:44 PM »
Take with a grain of salt, but by the end of 12Z run of the GFS, positive (above normal) temperature anomalies cover nearly all of Canada.  Actually, it's difficult to find any truly cold air anywhere on our side of the globe by early December.  It will be difficult to get sustained cold here when the source region is well above seasonal temperatures.  The only saving grace is a decent snow pack continues to build over southeastern Canada (Quebec and Ontario) over the next two weeks per the forecast.  However, the provinces west of there are flooded with Pacific air it appears, and snowfall is below normal--especially in the lee of the Rockies.  Not a good look for early winter weather, but things can change.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #341 on: November 19, 2020, 02:32:36 PM »
Take with a grain of salt, but by the end of 12Z run of the GFS, positive (above normal) temperature anomalies cover nearly all of Canada.  Actually, it's difficult to find any truly cold air anywhere on our side of the globe by early December.  It will be difficult to get sustained cold here when the source region is well above seasonal temperatures.  The only saving grace is a decent snow pack continues to build over southeastern Canada (Quebec and Ontario) over the next two weeks per the forecast.  However, the provinces west of there are flooded with Pacific air it appears, and snowfall is below normal--especially in the lee of the Rockies.  Not a good look for early winter weather, but things can change.
pacific region looks mild ... La Niña spitting out the pacific jet hose soon
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #342 on: November 20, 2020, 12:29:14 AM »
To be honest, I think if this winter stinks it up don't blame the Nina, it will be the MJO, the strong Polar Vortex, or the Pacific ridge sets too far to the west.  We can't pin it all on the ENSO because if we could then we wouldn't have had two crappy winters following a favorable west-based weak El-Nino series.

I blame our geographical location. Its 2020 , so maybe we can pull something funky out of the bag by the end of year. Its a slow start in many places. Only 2 good snows so far out in the West. Mt Baker is getting the good over the next 15 days. PNW above H85 is getting clobbered..... Pattern will change and there will be more troughing/ridging setting up .... Fast Pacific , we know how this goes.


Offline BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #343 on: November 20, 2020, 06:30:31 AM »
I blame our geographical location. Its 2020 , so maybe we can pull something funky out of the bag by the end of year. Its a slow start in many places. Only 2 good snows so far out in the West. Mt Baker is getting the good over the next 15 days. PNW above H85 is getting clobbered..... Pattern will change and there will be more troughing/ridging setting up .... Fast Pacific , we know how this goes.
our geographic location used to not matter ... due to changes mainly to our climate unfortunately.... is the problem
« Last Edit: November 20, 2020, 06:34:58 AM by BRUCE »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline gcbama

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #344 on: November 20, 2020, 08:03:51 AM »
our geographic location used to not matter

Agreed, we have talked before how snow averages used to be 3-4 inches higher than what they are now.....geography never used to matter before....most areas near 412 corridor and points north used to have averages of around 9-10 inches of snow per year and that's a really good season......however look at nashville's average now and it is around 6 inches because of lack of snow the past 15 years

 

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