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Author Topic: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021  (Read 8169 times)

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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #30 on: August 31, 2020, 05:05:35 PM »
old farmers almanac going with not so cold and not to wet for us this winter season.... :)
Come on severe wx season...

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #31 on: August 31, 2020, 05:41:32 PM »
Outlook 2 out of 3:

Pretty much I took 2017-18 and copied and pasted on to a map. I also wrote 2018-19 and 2019-20 and dashed them out with a thick black line to show my displeasure towards such crappy winters.

I do think that 2017-18 is the top analog for this upcoming winter due to a few reasons.

1) Factors in Climate Change and overall background state

2) Similar ENSO strength

3) An active northern stream is present this summer that reminds me of that winter

4) Warmth in the Indian ocean

5) A very strong Sonora/Southwest Ridge along with ridging signals on the East Coast/Southeast/Western Atlantic   

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Offline Matthew

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #32 on: August 31, 2020, 06:09:50 PM »
Outlook 2 out of 3:

Pretty much I took 2017-18 and copied and pasted on to a map. I also wrote 2018-19 and 2019-20 and dashed them out with a thick black line to show my displeasure towards such crappy winters.

I do think that 2017-18 is the top analog for this upcoming winter due to a few reasons.

1) Factors in Climate Change and overall background state

2) Similar ENSO strength

3) An active northern stream is present this summer that reminds me of that winter

4) Warmth in the Indian ocean

5) A very strong Sonora/Southwest Ridge along with ridging signals on the East Coast/Southeast/Western Atlantic   

(Attachment Link)
Agree totally with you outlook.  Honestly I donít see how anyone can call for cold and snowy anymore.  I do believe we are in for a wet winter.  Seems winters are more wetter than normal.  I also expect a cooler than normal November and March.  All other months warm.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #33 on: August 31, 2020, 06:54:16 PM »
Actually little to early to make my forecast ... I will do mine mid October ... I will have a full detail forecast as usual month by Month...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline TNHunter

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #34 on: August 31, 2020, 08:10:59 PM »
Outlook 2 out of 3:

Pretty much I took 2017-18 and copied and pasted on to a map. I also wrote 2018-19 and 2019-20 and dashed them out with a thick black line to show my displeasure towards such crappy winters.

I do think that 2017-18 is the top analog for this upcoming winter due to a few reasons.

1) Factors in Climate Change and overall background state

2) Similar ENSO strength

3) An active northern stream is present this summer that reminds me of that winter

4) Warmth in the Indian ocean

5) A very strong Sonora/Southwest Ridge along with ridging signals on the East Coast/Southeast/Western Atlantic   

(Attachment Link)

Book 17-18! That was a **** of a January! Cold as balls!

We stayed out of school for like 11 days due to snow and ice. Wanting to say I was off more days that month than I taught.  Fought thick ice for about 3 straight weeks in January that duck season.  Reelfoot lake froze over solid, 5-6 inches thick. People walked all over it.

If I remember right it got frigid cold the week of Christmas and hardly let up through mid to late January. We had at least 2 good snows.

Pretty sure about January 10th or 11th we had a major warm up and the snow and ice started melting some.  It got to like 65 degrees on the 11th then that big he a huge system moved in and temps dropped like 40 degrees and it came a big ice/sleet storm then snowed hard on top of that until about noon on the 12th. Then stayed froze for about 2 weeks straight again.

Pics of that event
« Last Edit: August 31, 2020, 08:29:40 PM by TNHunter »

Offline TNHunter

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #35 on: August 31, 2020, 08:30:36 PM »
More

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #36 on: August 31, 2020, 10:01:43 PM »
Wow. Let me pass out... jb going with warm pretty much except far nw of the country this winter  ::blowtorch::
Come on severe wx season...

Online Curt

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Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #37 on: September 01, 2020, 09:01:10 AM »
Wow. Let me pass out... jb going with warm pretty much except far nw of the country this winter  ::blowtorch::
And that should the indication it wonít be right just based on that alone.

Offline gcbama

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #38 on: September 01, 2020, 09:54:37 AM »
And that should the indication it wonít be right just based on that alone.

yes maybe there's now a chance for us LOL

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #39 on: September 01, 2020, 11:27:59 AM »
And that should the indication it wonít be right just based on that alone.
reverse physiology perhaps ...lol
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Crockett

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #40 on: September 01, 2020, 12:09:38 PM »
Wow. Let me pass out... jb going with warm pretty much except far nw of the country this winter  ::blowtorch::


Offline JHart

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #41 on: September 01, 2020, 06:16:19 PM »
reverse physiology perhaps ...lol
I reversed some physiology last week leaning over to prune a hedge.  It's certainly put a chill on my ability to sit upright.
Hire the left-handed --- its fun to watch them write.

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #42 on: September 01, 2020, 06:54:44 PM »
I reversed some physiology last week leaning over to prune a hedge.  It's certainly put a chill on my ability to sit upright.

I totally did not notice that typo.

I'm starting to understand what Bruce means without reading the right words.   ::doh::

Offline Matthew

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #43 on: September 01, 2020, 08:36:19 PM »
yes maybe there's now a chance for us LOL
Well anyone want to bet that yes he swings and misses on his cold and snowy forecast but will hit a grandslam with this warmer forecast. 

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #44 on: September 02, 2020, 04:42:28 PM »
Well anyone want to bet that yes he swings and misses on his cold and snowy forecast but will hit a grandslam with this warmer forecast.

His warm forecast in 2010-11 went about as well as his cold winter forecasts since then have went.   

 

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