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Author Topic: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021  (Read 6582 times)

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Offline DocB

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #15 on: August 17, 2020, 01:34:25 PM »
I have higher hopes for this winter than last.
It's 2020 - heck, I'm expecting ice storms with how this year has played out.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #16 on: August 17, 2020, 02:45:06 PM »
It's 2020 - heck, I'm expecting ice storms with how this year has played out.

Or a Super Tuesday/Super Outbreak style outbreak on Christmas Day after 40-50MPH winds and blowing snow all across our area the week before.   

Offline gcbama

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #17 on: August 18, 2020, 08:26:07 AM »
I was in a sweet spot last year. I managed to get 3" over the course of the winter.

Isn't that sad though, we get excited over 3 inches of snow for a total season now and call it a sweet spot :(  I remember about every other season getting about 3 snows a year that would put down 3-4 inches every time and every few years getting a big 6-8 inch snowfall.

Past 2 seasons I have had 1 inch total , I am hoping for a return to a double digit year this year for the first time in a decade

Offline TNHunter

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #18 on: August 18, 2020, 08:57:50 AM »
Isn't that sad though, we get excited over 3 inches of snow for a total season now and call it a sweet spot :(  I remember about every other season getting about 3 snows a year that would put down 3-4 inches every time and every few years getting a big 6-8 inch snowfall.

Past 2 seasons I have had 1 inch total , I am hoping for a return to a double digit year this year for the first time in a decade

Wow you have had it rough.  I have been teaching HS for 8 years.  My first 3-4 years we missed between 8-14 days each year.  The only year we haven't been out for snow at least a day was last year.  NW TN is definitely the sweet spot for snow most years. 17-18 winter we were out for 11 days straight early January.

Offline gcbama

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #19 on: August 18, 2020, 10:05:17 AM »
Wow you have had it rough.  I have been teaching HS for 8 years.  My first 3-4 years we missed between 8-14 days each year.  The only year we haven't been out for snow at least a day was last year.  NW TN is definitely the sweet spot for snow most years. 17-18 winter we were out for 11 days straight early January.

yep lately its that erin,paris Clarksville corridor that gets the snow, but the 412 corridor, we can get hit hard sometimes because that heavy gulf moisture sometimes only goes so far north and we get hammered and north of 40 gets nothing its always a crapshoot lol. I can remember 4 7+ inch snows here and several 4-6 inch snows, but as I said usually we would always average around 7-10 inches per season , we have not come close to that in at least 9 years

Offline TNHunter

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #20 on: August 18, 2020, 11:23:22 AM »
Wow, that would suck to have that bad of a streak!

Offline gcbama

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #21 on: August 18, 2020, 11:31:29 AM »
Wow, that would suck to have that bad of a streak!

yeah everybody gets upset at my pessimistic attitude on here during winter , lol well you go through a decade like that and see how you would be LOL

Offline joemomma

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #22 on: August 18, 2020, 03:28:04 PM »
I've jinxed us all by buying a 4x4 truck two years ago.

Offline gcbama

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #23 on: August 18, 2020, 04:12:57 PM »
I've jinxed us all by buying a 4x4 truck two years ago.

ugh trade it in LOL

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #24 on: August 18, 2020, 05:23:29 PM »
Like every winter since the mid 2010s there are two things that we will very likely being going up against.   

- Warm Indian Ocean values leading to more time spent in MJO Phases 4-6 and higher amplitude events in those. 

- Warm ocean waters especially Gulf, Atlantic, and Caribbean. This would still be a signal for a strong SE Ridge and it means stronger warm air advection events and warm noses as well.   

We could have some 2014-15 or 2017-18 winter like-success but we have to rely on the EPO, PNA, and a weakened polar vortex and we have to have all three to counteract the MJO and the NAO that you know will be raging +.   

I am very concerned that we see another winter where you are stuck in MJO Phases 4-6, the polar vortex locks the cold air at the poles, and there is no significant sustained cold air to be found to our north leading to pretty much a mix of last winter and 2005-06.   

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #25 on: August 19, 2020, 07:58:31 AM »
The Old Farmer's Almanac which usually showers us in cold and snow now is forecasting a warmer and drier winter for us.

You know the optisim isn't there when even the Old Farmer's Almanac is not on your side. 

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #26 on: August 19, 2020, 11:09:50 AM »
Wow you have had it rough.  I have been teaching HS for 8 years.  My first 3-4 years we missed between 8-14 days each year.  The only year we haven't been out for snow at least a day was last year.  NW TN is definitely the sweet spot for snow most years. 17-18 winter we were out for 11 days straight early January.
  That 11 day stretch was as close to late 70s as you can get.

Offline mempho

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #27 on: August 31, 2020, 02:29:13 PM »
Just a Reminder:  King Euro still owes us plus almost 7 years interest:



Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk



Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline gcbama

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #28 on: August 31, 2020, 03:38:37 PM »
Just a Reminder:  King Euro still owes us plus almost 7 years interest:



Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

YES PLEASE :)

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
« Reply #29 on: August 31, 2020, 03:45:20 PM »
Don't EURO and GFS burp out something ridiculous like that in the long range nearly every year?

Impressive to have held onto a 200+ hour clown map from 2014.  ::lookaround::
« Last Edit: August 31, 2020, 03:49:24 PM by Thundersnow »

 

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