* User

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Advertisement


Author Topic: August 2020  (Read 873 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,549
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 156
August 2020
« on: July 26, 2020, 09:41:06 PM »
August is next weekend.  It looks like a pretty humid but not too extremely hot.

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,186
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: August 2020
« Reply #1 on: July 29, 2020, 10:37:10 AM »
After a heavy rain through this weekend, a fairly significant summer cold front will move through. Temps are below normal through the end of the extended period. Dew points look to drop into the 50s early next week meaning overnight lows could follow suit in a few places. At a minimum, I could see low 60s in most places outside of UHI. After this patten breaks, we will see if a true late summer heat takes hold. Crossing fingers for just plain normal. I think the hurricane season will start ramping up mid August too.

Offline StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,549
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 156
Re: August 2020
« Reply #2 on: July 29, 2020, 03:03:38 PM »
Often times this time of year the Monsoon kicks off which displaces the Sonora Ridge aka the SW Ridge either to the Pacific Northwest or to our region or both.  At least through the first week of August it looks like the SW Ridge stays put in the Desert Southwest and builds up the west coast leading to troughs in Central part of the USA that make it even our way.

If that patterns holds much longer into August then the Gulf Coast will probably get popped with multiple hurricane threats because anything that is able to make it into the Gulf or Caribbean Sea will want to take that weakness. Although that gives us relief from the heat that could lead to even worse consequences for us and those to our south later on down the line.   

Offline Eric

  • IF THE NAM VERIFIES
  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 14,728
  • Location: MTSU by day, Morrison by night
  • Call sign: KJ4IXE
    • My Blog...
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 923
Re: August 2020
« Reply #3 on: July 29, 2020, 03:15:46 PM »
Often times this time of year the Monsoon kicks off which displaces the Sonora Ridge aka the SW Ridge either to the Pacific Northwest or to our region or both.  At least through the first week of August it looks like the SW Ridge stays put in the Desert Southwest and builds up the west coast leading to troughs in Central part of the USA that make it even our way.

If that patterns holds much longer into August then the Gulf Coast will probably get popped with multiple hurricane threats because anything that is able to make it into the Gulf or Caribbean Sea will want to take that weakness. Although that gives us relief from the heat that could lead to even worse consequences for us and those to our south later on down the line.

OHX posted a GFS image of progged PWATs for the greater TN area a few days ago and I think the highest value was 2.65.  That's an insane amount of water in the atmosphere...near record levels they said.
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

Offline Matthew

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,804
  • Location: Smryna, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 580
Re: August 2020
« Reply #4 on: July 29, 2020, 10:13:58 PM »
OHX posted a GFS image of progged PWATs for the greater TN area a few days ago and I think the highest value was 2.65.  That's an insane amount of water in the atmosphere...near record levels they said.
In other words frog stranglers.  Flash flooding almost a guaranteed.

Offline StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,549
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 156
Re: August 2020
« Reply #5 on: July 30, 2020, 10:57:23 AM »
Quote
  ...Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley vicinity...
   Sizable spread lingers within model output concerning the synoptic
   and sub-synoptic developments Saturday through Saturday night.  In
   general, though, it appears that the lower/mid tropospheric
   perturbation will be accompanied by 30-50 kt southerly to
   southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer, across the warm sector
   of a modest, slowly deepening and northeastward migrating surface
   low.  Although mid-levels may be relatively warm, boundary-layer
   moisture characterized by surface dew points in excess of 70f may
   still contribute to CAPE of 1000-2000+ J/kg by Saturday afternoon.
   This should be sufficient to support the initiation of vigorous
   thunderstorm development.

   Given this environment, including favorable ambient vertical
   vorticity, and perhaps modest clockwise curved low-level hodographs,
   some supercell structures posing a risk for tornadoes appear
   possible, in additional to upscale growing convection capable of
   producing potential damaging wind gusts.

This is associated with a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather for Day 3.   

Offline gcbama

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,064
  • Location: Lewis County Tn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: August 2020
« Reply #6 on: July 30, 2020, 12:45:27 PM »
This is associated with a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather for Day 3.

quite interesting for August/summer

Online TNHunter

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 304
  • Location:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: August 2020
« Reply #7 on: July 31, 2020, 07:16:18 AM »
How much yíall want to bet that the first week of August is going to be cooler than the first week of October??? LOL

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,186
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: August 2020
« Reply #8 on: July 31, 2020, 01:45:15 PM »
Like Dyer said...3 days ago every model had 4-5 inches of rain. And now..maybe half an inch. GFS has temps in the upper 70's and low 80's for a few days with much drier DP's. In fact, Tues morning might be close to record lows albeit the UHI will prevent it in reality. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few 50's. Its just a reminder that fall isn't far away now that we are in late summer.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

  • Global Moderator
  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,438
  • Location: North of 40
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 609
Re: August 2020
« Reply #9 on: July 31, 2020, 02:36:34 PM »
I have yet to see enough to even wet the pavement. Crazy.

Offline Nash_LSU

  • Sunny
  • *
  • Posts: 31
  • Location: Nashville Zooish
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: August 2020
« Reply #10 on: July 31, 2020, 03:47:01 PM »
I have yet to see enough to even wet the pavement. Crazy.

And I've had nearly three inches in the past few days.

Offline dwagner88

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,482
  • Location: Chattanooga (East Brainerd) TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 141
Re: August 2020
« Reply #11 on: July 31, 2020, 05:12:18 PM »
Lol. Bypassed again. A whopping 0.09Ē in the gauge. Looks like the I-40 corridor in East TN did better.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25Ē

Offline mamMATTus

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,288
  • Location: Lebanon/Mt Juliet
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 143
Re: August 2020
« Reply #12 on: July 31, 2020, 07:15:19 PM »
Wouldn't be surprised if there was a swirling cloud or 2 here right now lol


Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,186
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
August 2020
« Reply #13 on: July 31, 2020, 07:25:26 PM »
I donít know if Iíve ever seen such a pleasant August night for patio weather. (Oops July)

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,186
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
August 2020
« Reply #14 on: August 01, 2020, 11:54:14 AM »
Only 70. At noon. In early August. And no rain. INCREDIBLE.

Youíre not going to see very many ULLís in August right on top of us with some mild CAA.

 

* Recent Posts

August 2020
by nrgJeff
[Today at 10:53:05 AM]
Hurricane Isaias
by cgauxknox
[Today at 08:30:13 AM]
Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
by StormNine
[August 01, 2020, 10:48:28 AM]
July 2020
by JHart
[July 31, 2020, 01:46:01 PM]
2020 Tropical Season Outlook
by gcbama
[July 30, 2020, 08:27:35 AM]

Advertisement