August 2020

[StormNine]

August is next weekend.  It looks like a pretty humid but not too extremely hot.

[Curt]

After a heavy rain through this weekend, a fairly significant summer cold front will move through. Temps are below normal through the end of the extended period. Dew points look to drop into the 50s early next week meaning overnight lows could follow suit in a few places. At a minimum, I could see low 60s in most places outside of UHI. After this patten breaks, we will see if a true late summer heat takes hold. Crossing fingers for just plain normal. I think the hurricane season will start ramping up mid August too.

[StormNine]

Often times this time of year the Monsoon kicks off which displaces the Sonora Ridge aka the SW Ridge either to the Pacific Northwest or to our region or both.  At least through the first week of August it looks like the SW Ridge stays put in the Desert Southwest and builds up the west coast leading to troughs in Central part of the USA that make it even our way.

If that patterns holds much longer into August then the Gulf Coast will probably get popped with multiple hurricane threats because anything that is able to make it into the Gulf or Caribbean Sea will want to take that weakness. Although that gives us relief from the heat that could lead to even worse consequences for us and those to our south later on down the line.   

[Eric]

Often times this time of year the Monsoon kicks off which displaces the Sonora Ridge aka the SW Ridge either to the Pacific Northwest or to our region or both.  At least through the first week of August it looks like the SW Ridge stays put in the Desert Southwest and builds up the west coast leading to troughs in Central part of the USA that make it even our way.

If that patterns holds much longer into August then the Gulf Coast will probably get popped with multiple hurricane threats because anything that is able to make it into the Gulf or Caribbean Sea will want to take that weakness. Although that gives us relief from the heat that could lead to even worse consequences for us and those to our south later on down the line.

OHX posted a GFS image of progged PWATs for the greater TN area a few days ago and I think the highest value was 2.65.  That's an insane amount of water in the atmosphere...near record levels they said.

[Matthew]

OHX posted a GFS image of progged PWATs for the greater TN area a few days ago and I think the highest value was 2.65.  That's an insane amount of water in the atmosphere...near record levels they said.

In other words frog stranglers.  Flash flooding almost a guaranteed.

[StormNine]

  ...Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley vicinity...
   Sizable spread lingers within model output concerning the synoptic
   and sub-synoptic developments Saturday through Saturday night.  In
   general, though, it appears that the lower/mid tropospheric
   perturbation will be accompanied by 30-50 kt southerly to
   southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer, across the warm sector
   of a modest, slowly deepening and northeastward migrating surface
   low.  Although mid-levels may be relatively warm, boundary-layer
   moisture characterized by surface dew points in excess of 70f may
   still contribute to CAPE of 1000-2000+ J/kg by Saturday afternoon.
   This should be sufficient to support the initiation of vigorous
   thunderstorm development.

   Given this environment, including favorable ambient vertical
   vorticity, and perhaps modest clockwise curved low-level hodographs,
   some supercell structures posing a risk for tornadoes appear
   possible, in additional to upscale growing convection capable of
   producing potential damaging wind gusts.

This is associated with a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather for Day 3.   

[gcbama]

This is associated with a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather for Day 3.

quite interesting for August/summer

[TNHunter]

How much y’all want to bet that the first week of August is going to be cooler than the first week of October??? LOL

[Curt]

Like Dyer said...3 days ago every model had 4-5 inches of rain. And now..maybe half an inch. GFS has temps in the upper 70's and low 80's for a few days with much drier DP's. In fact, Tues morning might be close to record lows albeit the UHI will prevent it in reality. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few 50's. Its just a reminder that fall isn't far away now that we are in late summer.

[Dyersburg Weather]

I have yet to see enough to even wet the pavement. Crazy.

[Nash_LSU]

I have yet to see enough to even wet the pavement. Crazy.

And I've had nearly three inches in the past few days.

[dwagner88]

Lol. Bypassed again. A whopping 0.09” in the gauge. Looks like the I-40 corridor in East TN did better.

[mamMATTus]

Wouldn't be surprised if there was a swirling cloud or 2 here right now lol

[Curt]

I don’t know if I’ve ever seen such a pleasant August night for patio weather. (Oops July)

[Curt]

Only 70. At noon. In early August. And no rain. INCREDIBLE.

You’re not going to see very many ULL’s in August right on top of us with some mild CAA.