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Author Topic: Fall 2020: Because Fall Comes Before Winter  (Read 2741 times)

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Offline TNHunter

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Re: Fall 2020: Because Fall Comes Before Winter
« Reply #15 on: August 27, 2020, 06:08:50 AM »
Wow at the end of the 15 day forecast. Temps starting about the 7th look fantastic.  Mid 70s and mid 50s for lows.  Gosh, donít want to jinx it but a normalish fall would be great.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Fall 2020: Because Fall Comes Before Winter
« Reply #16 on: August 27, 2020, 04:25:39 PM »
The long range GFS is sexy. Has northern Tennessee flirting with upper 40s one night.

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Fall 2020: Because Fall Comes Before Winter
« Reply #17 on: August 28, 2020, 10:32:14 AM »
Maybe, just maybe, we're actually going to have a traditional September when we can expect our first major blast of autumn air by mid-month, unlike recent years.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Fall 2020: Because Fall Comes Before Winter
« Reply #18 on: August 28, 2020, 05:16:51 PM »
My Fall Outlook now calls for a real Fall and a more classic 90s look versus the 2010s with a cooler September and warmer November.

Nashville:

Sept: -1.5
Oct: -1.5
Nov: +2.5

Memphis:

Sept: -2.0
Oct: -1.1
Nov: +2.1

Knoxville:

Sept: -1.1
Oct: Average
Nov: +3.0 

Offline StormNine

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Re: Fall 2020: Because Fall Comes Before Winter
« Reply #19 on: August 28, 2020, 05:37:34 PM »
[ Guests cannot view attachments ]

Because why not

Offline nrgJeff

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Re: Fall 2020: Because Fall Comes Before Winter
« Reply #20 on: September 21, 2020, 09:53:04 AM »
The weather pattern forecast through early October (ensembles and weeklies) is friendly to BN temps esp Mid South. East Tennessee is not so locked in.

La Nina with warm SSTs off the West Coast combo supports the dynamic modeling. However the PDO is not quite there. Central Pac is still warm too. Winter is still TBD.

I keep remembering how great November 2019 was going for those of us who like winter wx. Then it fell apart. Still only takes one day. KCHA Sat. Feb 8!
Jeff H
Energy Meteorologist - U. of Kansas
Thoughts are my own.

Offline TNHunter

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Re: Fall 2020: Because Fall Comes Before Winter
« Reply #21 on: September 21, 2020, 10:28:56 AM »
The weather pattern forecast through early October (ensembles and weeklies) is friendly to BN temps esp Mid South. East Tennessee is not so locked in.

La Nina with warm SSTs off the West Coast combo supports the dynamic modeling. However the PDO is not quite there. Central Pac is still warm too. Winter is still TBD.

I keep remembering how great November 2019 was going for those of us who like winter wx. Then it fell apart. Still only takes one day. KCHA Sat. Feb 8!

Cold Novembers have spelled terrible winters as of lately.  So please no cold and snow in November this year lol

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Fall 2020: Because Fall Comes Before Winter
« Reply #22 on: September 21, 2020, 11:55:42 AM »
The weather pattern forecast through early October (ensembles and weeklies) is friendly to BN temps esp Mid South. East Tennessee is not so locked in.

La Nina with warm SSTs off the West Coast combo supports the dynamic modeling. However the PDO is not quite there. Central Pac is still warm too. Winter is still TBD.

I keep remembering how great November 2019 was going for those of us who like winter wx. Then it fell apart. Still only takes one day. KCHA Sat. Feb 8!
this la nina appears to be a weak to moderate this up coming winter... a nice big kelvin wave developing now in the pacific should boost the nina some. Also appears to me be central based... with the pdo heading negative think winter will come early but will leave early. also as we head to later winter the nina should start to decay fairly rapidly if that happens look for a active severe wx season late winter into spring 2021 for the midsouth
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Matthew

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Re: Fall 2020: Because Fall Comes Before Winter
« Reply #23 on: September 21, 2020, 12:24:58 PM »
this la nina appears to be a weak to moderate this up coming winter... a nice big kelvin wave developing now in the pacific should boost the nina some. Also appears to me be central based... with the pdo heading negative think winter will come early but will leave early. also as we head to later winter the nina should start to decay fairly rapidly if that happens look for a active severe wx season late winter into spring 2021 for the midsouth
After the tornadoes this past spring and my brother house finally rebuilt and lots of friends and people who are still trying to recover.  I hope itís a big ole bust.  Sorry Bruce but this area and actually America has seen enough destruction in 2020 that hopefully 2021 is a plain vanilla perfect wx year.

Offline NashRugger

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Re: Fall 2020: Because Fall Comes Before Winter
« Reply #24 on: September 22, 2020, 05:59:44 PM »
We've had some rather anomalously quiet spring seasons the last couple of years. Like last year when it practically shut down after April.

It's been a few years since the last really widespread outbreaks affected the south & southern Plains, and if things hold serve, that could likely break next year.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Fall 2020: Because Fall Comes Before Winter
« Reply #25 on: September 23, 2020, 05:38:11 AM »
We've had some rather anomalously quiet spring seasons the last couple of years. Like last year when it practically shut down after April.

It's been a few years since the last really widespread outbreaks affected the south & southern Plains, and if things hold serve, that could likely break next year.

With a La NiŮa taking hold through winter and likely the first half of spring, we can expect an active tornado season, especially in the Deep South and Southern Plains.
.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2020: Because Fall Comes Before Winter
« Reply #26 on: September 23, 2020, 05:28:56 PM »
Back in TN for the time being, and I must say it's nice to have an autumn without 90's on a daily basis (at least so far). It looks like a soaking rain over the next few days for most of us, and after some warmth over the weekend, another good cool down is possible later next week.  MRX even mentioned some frost possibilities (probably for the higher elevations).

Quote
The region should dry out Tues night and Wed in the strong cold air
advection except for some scattered NW flow showers over northern
and eastern areas Wed. Highs Mon will range from the mid 70`s to
around 80 cooling into the low/upper 70`s Tues and mid/upper 60`s
Wed. Lows will cool into the low/upper 40`s by mid week, and we
could get close to the first frost potential of the season
.


This is quite the welcome change considering most autumns since 2015 have been hot and dry.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Online cgauxknox

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Re: Fall 2020: Because Fall Comes Before Winter
« Reply #27 on: September 23, 2020, 06:22:45 PM »
Back in TN for the time being,
Welcome back! You've been missed.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Fall 2020: Because Fall Comes Before Winter
« Reply #28 on: September 23, 2020, 08:33:22 PM »
Great to have you back, JayCee. Please stick around and chat.
.

Offline TNHunter

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Re: Fall 2020: Because Fall Comes Before Winter
« Reply #29 on: September 24, 2020, 09:27:32 AM »
Well if I had to guess, all the seasonable to below normal temps forecasted will mean that just in time for winter we flip to an above average stretch.  Anyone want to put some money on it????

 

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