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That 30% chance turned into 2 inches of rain for most of NW Tennessee.

Unfortunately that's not how statistics works. If you flip a coin 9 times and get heads all nine times, what is the probability of getting heads on a 10th throw? Still 50%. Odds of getting a 100 year flood are the same each year regardless of what happens the year before.

So since it is kind of slow in here, who wants to make some predictions for this fall? I am hoping we get a nice true fall for once. I am already starting to crave the smells of fall because my wife sprayed some autumn smelling air freshener today. It’s really not that far away now.

First 2 weeks run hot and then I think a sharp transition into normal fall temperatures. I do think it will be abnormally dry though, dare I say similar to 2016.

I can’t buy a raindrop. Every direction but my yard.

Same. I’ve had to start watering aggressively to keep the landscaping going. I’ve moved into the city recently, so I’m paying a sewer bill for every drop, even though it never enters the sewer system. Ours is billed on water usage. I still can’t decide if it’s worth the convenience. My dad just had to replace his septic system to the tune of $15000+. Kinda feels like a wash in terms of risk and cost.

If two "one hundred year" events happened consecutively, would that make the whole situation a ten thousand year event?

To compute the joint probability of an event, multiply the probability of each of the two events. For example, the chances of rolling a 4 with a single dice are 1/6, or 16.7%. The chances of rolling a 4 two times in a row are: 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36 (2.78%).