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Author Topic: July 2020  (Read 9587 times)

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Offline nrgJeff

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Re: July 2020
« Reply #150 on: July 17, 2020, 12:35:25 PM »
Saw Comet Neowise with binoculars Thursday evening. Found a parking lot with open northwest view, but it's in town with lights and haze. No view unaided eye. However this was just the, satisfy myself I can find it, outing. Saw the tail with binoculars though.

Weekend plan is to go rural and high, as much for air quality as comet elevation. Hoping for naked eye at least a fuzzball. Could be better if the haze abates. Also can't have t-shower debris. Forecast favors Plateau over Southern Apps. Figure through binoculars it'll be a beautiful comet with tail.

Attempts may be made next week too. Have a nice weekend. Good luck All!
Jeff H
Energy Meteorologist - U. of Kansas
Thoughts are my own.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: July 2020
« Reply #151 on: July 17, 2020, 06:44:28 PM »
That 30% chance turned into 2 inches of rain for most of NW Tennessee.

Offline byrdymush

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Re: July 2020
« Reply #152 on: July 17, 2020, 06:49:17 PM »
That 30% chance turned into 2 inches of rain for most of NW Tennessee.
I was watching you guys up north. Ripley/Henning area looks like they got what we had in Atoka yesterday. Stationary heavy rains and growing.

Reports are that we saw 5.5Ē of rain in one hour here in Atoka yesterday.

Offline Curt

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Re: July 2020
« Reply #153 on: July 17, 2020, 06:52:40 PM »
I canít buy a raindrop. Every direction but my yard.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: July 2020
« Reply #154 on: July 17, 2020, 08:28:14 PM »
Unfortunately that's not how statistics works. If you flip a coin 9 times and get heads all nine times, what is the probability of getting heads on a 10th throw? Still 50%. Odds of getting a 100 year flood are the same each year regardless of what happens the year before.

That makes sense
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Offline TNHunter

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Re: July 2020
« Reply #155 on: July 17, 2020, 09:09:38 PM »
So since it is kind of slow in here, who wants to make some predictions for this fall? I am hoping we get a nice true fall for once. I am already starting to crave the smells of fall because my wife sprayed some autumn smelling air freshener today.  Itís really not that far away now.

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: July 2020
« Reply #156 on: July 17, 2020, 09:32:00 PM »
So since it is kind of slow in here, who wants to make some predictions for this fall? I am hoping we get a nice true fall for once. I am already starting to crave the smells of fall because my wife sprayed some autumn smelling air freshener today.  Itís really not that far away now.

First 2 weeks run hot and then I think a sharp transition into normal fall temperatures. I do think it will be abnormally dry though, dare I say similar to 2016.

Offline TNHunter

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Re: July 2020
« Reply #157 on: July 17, 2020, 10:32:38 PM »
First 2 weeks run hot and then I think a sharp transition into normal fall temperatures. I do think it will be abnormally dry though, dare I say similar to 2016.

I would take a dry fall for sure, just not fire dry.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: July 2020
« Reply #158 on: July 17, 2020, 11:10:40 PM »
I canít buy a raindrop. Every direction but my yard.
Same. Iíve had to start watering aggressively to keep the landscaping going. Iíve moved into the city recently, so Iím paying a sewer bill for every drop, even though it never enters the sewer system. Ours is billed on water usage. I still canít decide if itís worth the convenience. My dad just had to replace his septic system to the tune of $15000+. Kinda feels like a wash in terms of risk and cost.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
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2/8/20: 4.25Ē

Offline byrdymush

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Re: July 2020
« Reply #159 on: July 17, 2020, 11:14:27 PM »
Same. Iíve had to start watering aggressively to keep the landscaping going. Iíve moved into the city recently, so Iím paying a sewer bill for every drop, even though it never enters the sewer system. Ours is billed on water usage. I still canít decide if itís worth the convenience. My dad just had to replace his septic system to the tune of $15000+. Kinda feels like a wash in terms of risk and cost.
Our town (Atoka) is the same way. Still waiting on the bill for filling up the new pool. We were about to have to pull the sprinklers out when we got drowned in yesterdayís downpour. We needed that...bad. Maybe not 5.5Ē (reportedly) of it at once, but we will take it. Haha.

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: July 2020
« Reply #160 on: July 18, 2020, 09:02:56 AM »
Unfortunately that's not how statistics works. If you flip a coin 9 times and get heads all nine times, what is the probability of getting heads on a 10th throw? Still 50%. Odds of getting a 100 year flood are the same each year regardless of what happens the year before.

Actually, I think schneitzeit is right.

If two "one hundred year" events happened consecutively, would that make the whole situation a ten thousand year event?

That's right- I'll explain:

While it is true that a 100-year event does not affect the odds of another 100-year event the next year, the odds of two 100-year events happening consecutively are 1 in 10,000.

While the odds of a coin flip being heads is 50-50, it would be a closer analogy to say what are the odds of flipping a coin twice and getting heads both times? Flip once, and it will be 1 of 2 possibilities that could occur. But, flip twice, and there are 4 possible outcomes from flipping twice. So, the odds of getting one of those combinations from flipping twice is 1 in 4 or 25%.

Single Flip:
Heads: 50%
Tails: 50%

Flip Twice:
Heads, Heads: 25%
Heads, Tails: 25%
Tails, Heads: 25%
Tails, Tails: 25%

If you say that an event has a 1/100 chance of happening in a given year, what are the odds that event would happen two years in a row?

Someone check my math on this: 1/100 * 1/100 = 1/10000

So, while a 100-year event does not change the fact that the following year still has a 1 in 100 chance of occurring, the chance of both years having the 1/100 event is actually 1 in 10,000.

#notenoughtododuringpademic :)


This talks about these kinds of probabilities:

https://learn.problemgambling.ca/probability-odds-random-chance#:~:text=To%20compute%20the%20joint%20probability,1%2F36%20(2.78%25).

They use an example of rolling dice twice in a row.

Quote
To compute the joint probability of an event, multiply the probability of each of the two events. For example, the chances of rolling a 4 with a single dice are 1/6, or 16.7%. The chances of rolling a 4 two times in a row are: 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36 (2.78%).

Not to miss your point though- when a rare event happens, it remains just as likely to occur the next year.

I guess this is the difference between an individual probably and a combined probably.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2020, 09:39:07 AM by Thundersnow »

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: July 2020
« Reply #161 on: July 18, 2020, 09:43:48 AM »
Yeah, I was wondering what the probability of having two "once in a century" events in back-to-back years would be. Basically, your argument is valid, and dwagner's argument is valid. Dwagner clarified that the probability of having a 1 in 100 year event no matter what occurred in previous years is still going to be 1 in 100.

With that said, is it sensible to claim that the probability of those two events happening in consecutive years a 1 in 10,000 year event? Or would we need to develop different statistical reasoning for that?

I'm not a stats guy at all, so I'm staying out of this one.
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Offline dwagner88

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Re: July 2020
« Reply #162 on: July 18, 2020, 10:56:06 AM »
My PWS indicates we have a very real shot at 100 today. Already at 92. We hit 97 yesterday.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
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Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
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2/8/20: 4.25Ē

Offline Curt

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Re: July 2020
« Reply #163 on: July 18, 2020, 11:08:06 AM »
Same. Iíve had to start watering aggressively to keep the landscaping going. Iíve moved into the city recently, so Iím paying a sewer bill for every drop, even though it never enters the sewer system. Ours is billed on water usage. I still canít decide if itís worth the convenience. My dad just had to replace his septic system to the tune of $15000+. Kinda feels like a wash in terms of risk and cost.
Yeah weíve been just outside the metro now for 3 years in a fairly rural location. After my house in Gatlinburg, I was skeptical of the well and septic tank- but itís been totally fine. The one in Gatlinburg before we sold was a royal pain.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: July 2020
« Reply #164 on: July 18, 2020, 11:10:51 AM »
It's frickin hot today. I got my run in between 8 and 9am and it felt like it was 100 degrees.
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