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Author Topic: Easter 2020 Severe Threat  (Read 18860 times)

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Offline wfrogge

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #30 on: April 10, 2020, 09:17:49 AM »
few folks here have posted that the main threat is south of the state and that is true and most of those posts were before this new 3 day outlook so there is that as well.  With that said cover with your hand the threat to the south of us and look at the portions of our state that are enhanced risk and hatched..... Its more than 1/2 of the state at this time.

If the area just south of us wasn't under any risk and we were in the enhanced hatch 3 days out how would we react? Time to start ringing the severe weather threat alarms to all our friends IMHO.  Don't need to stress this too much for the folks here I know.... I am just alarmed myself
« Last Edit: April 10, 2020, 09:25:15 AM by wfrogge »

Offline gcbama

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #31 on: April 10, 2020, 09:21:39 AM »
few folks here have posted that the main threat is south of the state and that is true. With that said cover with your hand the threat to the south of us and look at the portions of our state that are enhanced risk and hatched..... Its more than 1/2 of the state at this time.

If the area just south of us wasn't under any risk and we were in the enhanced hatch 3 days out how would we react? Time to start ringing the severe weather threat alarms to all our friends IMHO

Don't disagree at all with that, 3 day enhanced is no joke and I think some of our state could end up in moderate.....but just 50-75 miles south of us will probably be in the HIGH category is all I was saying...a red letter day for midsouth and gulf states possibly

Offline JTM1988

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #32 on: April 10, 2020, 09:37:58 AM »
Question for someone: Seems like the NAM shows an initial threat of supercells from Shreveport(ish) to Birmingham with an additional wave developing further Northwest around the MS river south of Memphis around 21z and flying into Mid TN with really high STP and cape. I donít believe other models are showing this. Any chance thatís believable at the moment?


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Offline JKT1987

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #33 on: April 10, 2020, 09:49:45 AM »
Could change but I don't see much support for a a severe weather threat north of the Highway 82 corridor...in-line with SPC's thinking. Looks like possible heavy rain maker and general thunderstorms for Tennessee itself...with I-20 and south as the focus for more significant severe weather potential.

Said it could change... and the primary way it changes is the system overall slowing...which gives more time for the warm sector to push north and also puts the primary low a bit further west.

Certainly the trend in guidance is moving in that direction the last 12 hours. The 12z NAM is especially alarming regarding this. It is the NAM of course...but there is a trend. So Yes...if I was in TN I would begin to start treating this seriously (even if yes the greatest *confidence* in threat remains south of the state at this time)

Offline gcbama

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #34 on: April 10, 2020, 10:00:11 AM »
Question for someone: Seems like the NAM shows an initial threat of supercells from Shreveport(ish) to Birmingham with an additional wave developing further Northwest around the MS river south of Memphis around 21z and flying into Mid TN with really high STP and cape. I donít believe other models are showing this. Any chance thatís believable at the moment?


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If supercells pop in N/W Mississippi late in afternoon then we will be in trouble as they trek northeast :( it is possible given trends

Offline gcbama

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #35 on: April 10, 2020, 10:57:20 AM »
alabamawx.com shows a nam model with a 10 stp over mid tn just as an fyi

Offline NismoWx

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #36 on: April 10, 2020, 11:13:17 AM »
 ::coffee::

This morning's Weather XTreme video. #SpannTheMan

https://youtu.be/CqG_b5Cczus?t=101

Offline gcbama

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #37 on: April 10, 2020, 11:22:13 AM »
::coffee::

This morning's Weather XTreme video. #SpannTheMan

https://youtu.be/CqG_b5Cczus?t=101

Any type of weather threat, I watch him for his analysis and advice.....NOBODY is better, and something else I like is he is not scared to question the spc or nws about warnings and other things and admits when things are a bust....humble man he is, and a fantastic meteorologist

Offline JKT1987

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #38 on: April 10, 2020, 11:34:03 AM »
GFS still isn't quite with the NAM and would keep the threat more contained south... as the warm front struggles to push north due to continued AM convection that day... so we will see. Still plenty of uncertainty yet.

Meanwhile...sign of the times here...
Quote
 
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... 
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. 
   
DAY ONE 
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT 
 
A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR 
THE TENNESSEE RIVER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING TOMORROW. 
   
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN 
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY 
 
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF 
NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ENHANCED RISK 
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG I-40, AND A SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE   
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES   
ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY   
RAINFALL. A FEW STRONG, LONG TRACK TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE   
OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. 
 
A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE ALSO BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY. 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO 
EVENING IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS WHILE FOLLOWING   
ALL LOCAL, STATE, AND CDC GUIDELINES.
 

Offline gcbama

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #39 on: April 10, 2020, 11:44:32 AM »
GFS still isn't quite with the NAM and would keep the threat more contained south... as the warm front struggles to push north due to continued AM convection that day... so we will see. Still plenty of uncertainty yet.

Meanwhile...sign of the times here...

yep the classic am convection scenario could spare us yet again :)....we shall see

Offline Lcwthrnut

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #40 on: April 10, 2020, 11:55:32 AM »
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO 
EVENING IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS WHILE FOLLOWING   
ALL LOCAL, STATE, AND CDC GUIDELINES.

Also stay safe and do this responsibly!! Going to be an interesting 48 hours leading up to this.

Offline bugalou

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #41 on: April 10, 2020, 12:15:47 PM »
yep the classic am convection scenario could spare us yet again :)....we shall see

I wouldn't count on it this year.  Western and middle TN's relative luck with dodging big events seems to be up.  Its early April and we have already had confirmed Tornadoes in the Memphis, Jonesboro (AR), Jackson, and Nashville metro areas.  I for one am quite worried about this setup, especially falling on a holiday.  Saving grace may actually be the coronavirus and it limiting big events.

Offline bugalou

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #42 on: April 10, 2020, 12:22:07 PM »

Offline gcbama

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #43 on: April 10, 2020, 12:22:16 PM »
I wouldn't count on it this year.  Western and middle TN's relative luck with dodging big events seems to be up.  Its early April and we have already had confirmed Tornadoes in the Memphis, Jonesboro (AR), Jackson, and Nashville metro areas.  I for one am quite worried about this setup, especially falling on a holiday.  Saving grace may actually be the coronavirus and it limiting big events.

True, all it would take is for things to the west to slow down a bit and allow more time for the rain shield to leave....for us it's a big threat for sure, ingredients will be there, it just looks more of a guarantee farther south that's the only reason we aren't in the mod risk zone as of yet

Offline NismoWx

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #44 on: April 10, 2020, 12:25:11 PM »
I was reminded this morning of 2009 Good Friday tornado in Murfreesboro and 2013's model madness for the Apr 11, 2013 MS/AL event that included a long track EF-3. That was the day I registered on this site.

To think, almost 10 years later, I'm sitting here doing the same thing, about to look up the 18z model runs, and hope it's not worse than the previous runs..

 

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