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Author Topic: Easter 2020 Severe Threat  (Read 18859 times)

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Offline Eric

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #15 on: April 09, 2020, 04:02:04 PM »
I have said it before, it has happened that way here several times in last decade, even the great flood of 2010 was supposed to be a severe weather outbreak here and turned into our record flood event

Twas also a severe weather event.  Multiple TORs.
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Offline andyhb

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #16 on: April 09, 2020, 04:03:00 PM »
Just gonna say that people looking for a big TN threat here barring some significant changes are barking up the wrong tree. Maybe it creeps into S Middle TN later on or E TN, but I don't see a major threat for Memphis/Nashville/the I-40 corridor at this time.
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Offline gcbama

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #17 on: April 09, 2020, 04:06:28 PM »
Twas also a severe weather event.  Multiple TORs.

I mean nothing like it could have been....flooding was the prime story for us is what I was getting at

Offline gcbama

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #18 on: April 09, 2020, 04:07:33 PM »
Just gonna say that people looking for a big TN threat here barring some significant changes are barking up the wrong tree. Maybe it creeps into S Middle TN later on or E TN, but I don't see a major threat for Memphis/Nashville/the I-40 corridor at this time.

Agreed it clearly looks like Jackson/Tuscaloosa and b-ham and points south look to see the brunt of this as of now

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #19 on: April 10, 2020, 03:09:00 AM »
Big changes by spc... big north trend . Day 3 enhanced for midsouth. Tenn valley . Large moderate just to our south  day 3
Come on severe wx season...

Offline NismoWx

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #20 on: April 10, 2020, 06:43:19 AM »
MEM did a video on Facebook this morning with some VERY strong wording. Glad they're doing it.

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Offline gcbama

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #21 on: April 10, 2020, 06:43:32 AM »
My goodness poor MS and AL sitting on a powder keg on sunday…..will be close call for south of I-40 here in tn....might not have enough time to really destabilize once the warm front finally passes and convection leaves but there is still a good threat here as well...but Ms and AL is a powder keg....will be a High risk day at least by sunday, would not be shocked to see a day 2 high risk and the mod risk expand a little more north

Offline NismoWx

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #22 on: April 10, 2020, 06:43:59 AM »
:wow::wow:

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Offline gcbama

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #23 on: April 10, 2020, 06:53:09 AM »
:wow::wow:

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I think we all knew that Jackson to b-ham corridor was prime …. what is concerning for us is the possibility of a northward trend as we are in enhanced zone now....IF early convection gets out of here and we have a few hours of clearing then we would be on powder keg also...Mississippi and Bama look to have several hours of destabilization....hard not to see the similarities to april 27

I think it could be a day that you look at radar and get a chilling effect seeing several rotating supercells....
« Last Edit: April 10, 2020, 07:00:48 AM by gcbama »

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #24 on: April 10, 2020, 07:54:50 AM »
My goodness poor MS and AL sitting on a powder keg on sunday…..will be close call for south of I-40 here in tn....might not have enough time to really destabilize once the warm front finally passes and convection leaves but there is still a good threat here as well...but Ms and AL is a powder keg....will be a High risk day at least by sunday, would not be shocked to see a day 2 high risk and the mod risk expand a little more north
trend keeps slowing down. Allowing better quality warm sector up to southern tennessee as now
Come on severe wx season...

Offline gcbama

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #25 on: April 10, 2020, 08:11:24 AM »
trend keeps slowing down. Allowing better quality warm sector up to southern tennessee as now

I do think I-40 and south "could" end up in moderate range places like deacturville, Hohenwald, Jackson, Columbia and points south,  but it will not be the same atmosphere that will be available in Ms and Al down there looks BRUTAL.....that said we will still probably see some really significant weather here as we are in hatched area....but maybe just not as numerous as to our south
« Last Edit: April 10, 2020, 08:13:45 AM by gcbama »

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #26 on: April 10, 2020, 08:15:52 AM »
I do think I-40 and south "could" end up in moderate range places like deacturville, Hohenwald, Jackson, Columbia and points south,  but it will not be the same atmosphere that will be available in Ms and Al down there looks BRUTAL.....that said we will still probably see some really significant weather here as we are in hatched area....but maybe just not as numerous as to our south
agree at this moment... but trend is going be big key on today’s runs
Come on severe wx season...

Offline gcbama

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #27 on: April 10, 2020, 08:28:46 AM »
agree at this moment... but trend is going be big key on today’s runs

true,,,things can always change, only thing that could hold us back for major potential is the lack of time to destabilize after the warm front convection pass by...at this point only looks like 2-3 hours....if that could be more like 4-5 hours then look out...but again places south are going to be destabilizing for 7-8 hours , look scary for them right now

Offline Eric

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #28 on: April 10, 2020, 08:40:11 AM »
Willing to bet a small sum of pennies we see a HIGH risk before it's all said and done with.
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Offline gcbama

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #29 on: April 10, 2020, 08:43:34 AM »
Willing to bet a small sum of pennies we see a HIGH risk before it's all said and done with.

Yep I said that earlier as well....I see a day 2 high risk happening honestly just to our south

 

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