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Author Topic: Easter 2020 Severe Threat  (Read 18835 times)

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Offline cgauxknox

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Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« on: April 09, 2020, 10:01:22 AM »
It's enough of a topic of discussion I'm going with the suggestion to start a thread.

Offline NismoWx

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #1 on: April 09, 2020, 10:10:32 AM »
https://youtu.be/w6wRC4XlmwA

James Spann's Weather XTreme video this morning. Good part starts at 3:00.

 ::wow:: ::wow:: ::wow::

Offline gcbama

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #2 on: April 09, 2020, 10:32:26 AM »
https://youtu.be/w6wRC4XlmwA

James Spann's Weather XTreme video this morning. Good part starts at 3:00.

 ::wow:: ::wow:: ::wow::

Spann is the man......that LOW placement near st louis would be bad news for us if that were to occur I would think, like I say I guess spc and everybody else is going with euro for now

Offline JKT1987

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #3 on: April 09, 2020, 11:36:39 AM »
Could change but I don't see much support for a a severe weather threat north of the Highway 82 corridor...in-line with SPC's thinking. Looks like possible heavy rain maker and general thunderstorms for Tennessee itself...with I-20 and south as the focus for more significant severe weather potential.

Offline gcbama

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #4 on: April 09, 2020, 11:42:44 AM »
Could change but I don't see much support for a a severe weather threat north of the Highway 82 corridor...in-line with SPC's thinking. Looks like possible heavy rain maker and general thunderstorms for Tennessee itself...with I-20 and south as the focus for more significant severe weather potential.

been same kind of story for past decade, the big potential outbreaks have been from tupelo to Huntsville and places south from hwy 72 corridor, just interesting....not complaining about it though lol

Offline StormNine

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #5 on: April 09, 2020, 11:45:48 AM »
I would imagine two threats could pop up here.

1) The main one and the most significant being LA/MS/AL/GA/and potentially adjacent parts of Arkansas and Tennessee.  These areas have the best large scale combo of all that you need for severe weather.  As of now likely expect at least a Moderate Risk of severe weather in at least some of those locations unless things drastically change. 

2) The triple point in Arkansas into Southeastern Missouri.  Anytime you have a strong powerhouse low-pressure system with abundant moisture return one always has to respect the triple-point setup.  The biggest caveat here would be the potential for storms to the south to rob the area of the ripe moisture return needed but if you can an EML or any sort of dry slot then I would expect the triple point to be a trouble spot.   

Offline gcbama

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #6 on: April 09, 2020, 11:55:37 AM »
I would imagine two threats could pop up here.

1) The main one and the most significant being LA/MS/AL/GA/and potentially adjacent parts of Arkansas and Tennessee.  These areas have the best large scale combo of all that you need for severe weather.  As of now likely expect at least a Moderate Risk of severe weather in at least some of those locations unless things drastically change. 

2) The triple point in Arkansas into Southeastern Missouri.  Anytime you have a strong powerhouse low-pressure system with abundant moisture return one always has to respect the triple-point setup.  The biggest caveat here would be the potential for storms to the south to rob the area of the ripe moisture return needed but if you can an EML or any sort of dry slot then I would expect the triple point to be a trouble spot.

I am wondering if there will be storms along gulf early in the day that could inhibit moisture returns to the north....will be interesting but clearly the threat for now is central and southern ms/al/ga

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #7 on: April 09, 2020, 12:25:20 PM »
I would imagine two threats could pop up here.

1) The main one and the most significant being LA/MS/AL/GA/and potentially adjacent parts of Arkansas and Tennessee.  These areas have the best large scale combo of all that you need for severe weather.  As of now likely expect at least a Moderate Risk of severe weather in at least some of those locations unless things drastically change. 

2) The triple point in Arkansas into Southeastern Missouri.  Anytime you have a strong powerhouse low-pressure system with abundant moisture return one always has to respect the triple-point setup.  The biggest caveat here would be the potential for storms to the south to rob the area of the ripe moisture return needed but if you can an EML or any sort of dry slot then I would expect the triple point to be a trouble spot.
spot on
Come on severe wx season...

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #8 on: April 09, 2020, 12:26:57 PM »
I am wondering if there will be storms along gulf early in the day that could inhibit moisture returns to the north....will be interesting but clearly the threat for now is central and southern ms/al/ga
as now. No model is showing convection along the gulf coast at this time
Come on severe wx season...

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #9 on: April 09, 2020, 12:31:52 PM »
as now. No model is showing convection along the gulf coast at this time

Too early to tell IMHO

But if we want to look at what is showing there is plenty of cloud cover and this is the first storm where the gulf is open for business. So its a possibility.

Online Eric

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #10 on: April 09, 2020, 02:16:39 PM »
There's going to be a ton of warm air advection northward which could spawn convection.  OHX and SPC both alluded to it.  We've all seen it happen with these kinds of setups.  Very rare that you get a crapvection-free warm sector across a large area.

as now. No model is showing convection along the gulf coast at this time

Not talking along the gulf coast.  The issue is with crapvection within the Tennessee Valley that would limit the northern expanse of the severe threat.  Plus, that's a mesoscale feature.  No model can see that yet.
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #11 on: April 09, 2020, 02:37:02 PM »
There's going to be a ton of warm air advection northward which could spawn convection.  OHX and SPC both alluded to it.  We've all seen it happen with these kinds of setups.  Very rare that you get a crapvection-free warm sector across a large area.

Not talking along the gulf coast.  The issue is with crapvection within the Tennessee Valley that would limit the northern expanse of the severe threat.  Plus, that's a mesoscale feature.  No model can see that yet.
gc bama was asking bout potential convection along gulf coast... yeah I can see some crap hanging around northern Alabama and north ms which could shunt the warm front
Come on severe wx season...

Offline gcbama

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #12 on: April 09, 2020, 03:44:51 PM »
gc bama was asking bout potential convection along gulf coast... yeah I can see some crap hanging around northern Alabama and north ms which could shunt the warm front

Much like how april 27th we were mostly spared by the rain, never know what meso features will come into play

Offline StormNine

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #13 on: April 09, 2020, 03:52:26 PM »
Much like how april 27th we were mostly spared by the rain, never know what meso features will come into play

4/24/2010 and 4/15/2011 are other examples of this as well. Both of those events are pretty similar on a macro scale to the projected Easter Weekend event.   

Offline gcbama

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Re: Easter 2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #14 on: April 09, 2020, 03:58:14 PM »
4/24/2010 and 4/15/2011 are other examples of this as well. Both of those events are pretty similar on a macro scale to the projected Easter Weekend event.

I have said it before, it has happened that way here several times in last decade, even the great flood of 2010 was supposed to be a severe weather outbreak here and turned into our record flood event

 

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